Ukraine War Update NEWS: 2x AP's Equipment Loss Lists
Table of Contents 📖
"So really good day for the Ukrainians in terms of the mass of equipment the Russians have lost on the 10th and that's what we see reflected in the general staff figures as well."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:33⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an appendix to the main hits and losses video, covering two days' worth of data from Andrew Perpetua. Today's video focuses on visually documented losses from social media on 10th and 11th October.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian Losses - 10th October
🎦 00:33-04:21⏩
Jonathan highlights that Ukrainian losses seem relatively light, with a 4:1 or 5:1 loss ratio in Ukraine's favour, based on Andrew Perpetua's analysis.
- Three ANTPQ-50 units were lost, which Jonathan speculates might be mounted on vehicles that aren't included in the count.
- Other Ukrainian losses on 10th October include communications equipment, an excavator, damaged boats, a truck with a ZU-23-2 autocannon, a destroyed Bradley IFV, a damaged Bradley, a captured M113, a captured Kuga-8, and a number of destroyed civilian vehicles.
- The capture of Ukrainian equipment, according to Jonathan, could be down to the more dynamic nature of the conflict in the Kursk region, compared to the static frontlines elsewhere.
Manoeuvre Warfare vs Static Warfare
🎦 02:26-03:45⏩
Jonathan digresses, explaining why more equipment is being captured in the Kursk region.
- He explains that the Kursk region is seeing more dynamic manoeuvre warfare, making it easier to capture equipment, compared to the static positional warfare seen in other areas of the frontline where this is less common.
Russian Losses 10th October
🎦 04:21-05:53⏩
On the Russian side, losses include trucks, civilian vehicles, and surveillance/comms equipment, with destroyed vehicles outnumbering damaged ones in most categories.
- Artillery losses are limited to two D-20 howitzers. However, Jonathan notes reports of heavier shelling than usual, suggesting effective counter-battery fire by Ukrainian forces.
- The Russians lost a significant amount of equipment with very little of it listed as damaged suggesting effective Ukrainian tactics.
- Almost all Russian tanks, IFVs, and APCs were destroyed, with very few abandoned or damaged. These include seven tanks and 15 IFVs. Jonathan remarks that this correlates with the higher equipment losses reported in the Russian General Staff's figures.
Overview of Losses 11th October
🎦 05:53-06:45⏩
Moving on to 11th October, Jonathan observes that visually confirmed losses are lower for both sides compared to the previous day.
- The overall loss ratio for 11th October favours Russia slightly at just under 2:1.
- Again, civilian vehicle losses are notable on both sides.
Ukrainian Losses 11th October
🎦 06:50-07:12⏩
Ukrainian losses on 11th October include artillery, one tank, a couple of infantry fighting vehicles (including a damaged Bradley), four M113s, a Striker, a Humvee, a MaxPro, and Cossacks. Jonathan notes that these losses are consistent with the types of Western-supplied equipment frequently seen in the conflict.
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Russian Losses 11th October
🎦 07:12-08:06⏩
Russian losses for 11th October, as with Ukraine, are lower than the previous day, with a significant proportion made up of artillery pieces. Losses include surveillance and comms equipment, an engineering vehicle, three BM-21 Grads (which Jonathan points out is a substantial number for a single day), other artillery pieces, NT-12 anti-tank guns, a T-30 tank, five other unidentified tanks, a tracked gun, a shed T-80, trucks, civilian vehicles, ATVs, three Desert Cross 1000 UGV's and two quad bikes.
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Wrap up
🎦 08:06-08:31⏩
Jonathan concludes by expressing his hope that the next day's statistics will be available before his next hits and losses video. He reiterates his appreciation for Andrew Perpetua's work and signs off.
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