Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"And as you can see, that's stretching out to Novorossiysk. Right, on other bits and pieces here, Igor Shushko says, Russia's reliance on Western technology in every sector exposed."
## Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:48⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first part of the 5th of January 2024 Ukraine War news update. He highlights that he also produced a breaking news video the previous night, which included analysis of Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets and the use of North Korean missiles by Russian forces.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Daily Report - Russian Losses
🎦 00:48-02:25⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses on the 4th of January. He highlights the significant losses for the Russians, including:
- 790 personnel
- 9 tanks
- 14 armoured personnel vehicles (APVs)
- 30 artillery systems (a high number)
- 2 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)
- 1 anti-aircraft warfare system
- 40 vehicles and fuel tanks (impacting Russian logistics)
- 9 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan emphasises that while the raw numbers are useful, the trends they indicate are even more important for understanding the war's trajectory.
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Oryx Daily Report - Ukrainian and Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 02:25-06:08⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's daily report on visually confirmed equipment losses from Oryx, noting that it shows near parity between Ukrainian and Russian losses. He breaks down the losses:
- Ukrainian: A comms tower, small boat, a T-64 tank, and a BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV). The remaining losses are primarily trucks, fuel tanks, vans, and an IRIS-T decoy. Jonathan highlights a single missile strike likely accounted for the majority of these losses.
- Russian: An Osa and Tor air defence system, a Murom M surveillance system, a comms tower, a Brem L recovery vehicle, a 2S4 Tyulpan (a 240mm self-propelled mortar), two T-90A tanks (a relatively rare sight), a variety of other tanks, APCs, IFVs, trucks, civilian vehicles, and some unidentifiable vehicles.
Jonathan emphasises that while the numbers appear balanced, the higher value of the Russian equipment lost makes this a more significant blow.
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Importance of Logistical Losses
🎦 06:08-06:31⏩
Jonathan observes that losing a large number of logistical vehicles in one go might be preferable to losing an equivalent number of tanks. He reasons that trucks are more readily replaceable from international sources compared to tanks.
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Russian Air Defence System Losses
🎦 06:31-07:06⏩
Jonathan notes an increase in videos showing the destruction of Russian Buk air defence systems, suggesting a possible trend in Russian losses. He highlights one video showing three Buk systems and another with an Osa system alongside a Buk.
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Ukrainian Drone Warfare: Airburst Munitions
🎦 07:06-08:20⏩
Jonathan analyses footage from the Robotyne area, drawing attention to a comment by "Special Curse on Cat" that highlights two interesting aspects:
- Use of airburst munitions by FPV drones: This is unusual, as airbursts are typically associated with artillery. The footage shows an FPV drone dropping a munition that explodes in the air, scattering shrapnel over a wider area. This is very effective against groups of infantry, as opposed to a direct impact, which has a more focused blast radius.
- Destruction of two T-90A tanks: These are less commonly seen than the more advanced T-90Ms, raising questions about their deployment. Jonathan mentions that the last documented T-90A losses were four months prior.
He provides links to further information in the video description.
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Footage - Destruction of a 2S4 Tyulpan Mortar by a Ukrainian Gimlet Drone
🎦 08:20-09:57⏩
Jonathan shows footage of the 2S4 Tyulpan self-propelled mortar being hit by a Ukrainian Gimlet loitering munition. The munition lands close to the mortar, quickly engulfing it in flames, which leads to a large secondary explosion. He notes that even a near miss from a Gimlet can inflict significant damage, and emphasises that the type of munition being carried by the loitering munition determines the extent of the damage.
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Upcoming Discussion on German Aid
🎦 09:57-10:30⏩
Jonathan mentions plans to speak with an individual about German aid to Ukraine, including the Skynex air defence system and the potential delivery of Taurus cruise missiles. He's unsure whether the conversation will be live or pre-recorded.
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Debunking Russian Claims of an IRIS-T Destruction
🎦 10:30-12:25⏩
Jonathan addresses a video circulating online that claims to show the destruction of a Ukrainian IRIS-T SLM air defence system in Kherson. He argues that this is highly likely to be a decoy, citing the following reasons:
- Presence of another decoy launcher: The same source posted a video at a similar location with a clearly identifiable decoy launcher.
- Lack of secondary explosion: The video shows the missile containers being hit. With eight loaded containers, a genuine IRIS-T would have produced a much larger secondary explosion.
- Abrupt video cut: The video ends immediately after the initial impact, which often indicates a lack of significant damage.
- "Too perfect" damage: The edges of the containers, particularly, appear suspiciously undamaged.
Jonathan acknowledges that he might receive criticism for questioning the video's authenticity.
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Explosion at a Russian Aluminium Plant
🎦 12:25-13:06⏩
Jonathan reports a fire at the Krasnoyarsk aluminium plant owned by Rusal, following a massive explosion. While the cause is unknown, he speculates whether it could be sabotage, an accident, an insurance scam, or a Ukrainian strike. Regardless of the cause, he suggests that any disruption to Russian industrial capacity is beneficial to Ukraine.
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Overnight Russian Drone Attacks on Ukraine
🎦 13:06-15:07⏩
Jonathan reports a wave of Russian drone attacks against Ukraine overnight, with 21 out of 29 drones being shot down. He speculates that this could be a retaliatory attack following the Ukrainian wave of drone and missile strikes the previous day. The targets of the remaining eight drones are unknown, but he believes Russia is prioritising industrial and defence infrastructure over energy infrastructure or military targets. Explosions were reported in Staro Kostyantyniv (home to an air base), and Jonathan mentions that fellow YouTuber "Greg Terry" was in the area at the time.
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Ukrainian Three-Stage Attacks
🎦 15:07-16:03⏩
Jonathan describes a three-stage attack strategy employed by Ukraine. It begins with drones to exhaust Russian air defences, followed by repurposed S-200/S-250 surface-to-air missiles in ground attack mode, and culminates with higher-value missiles like Storm Shadows or Neptunes. This approach aims to exploit vulnerabilities in Russian air defence by forcing them to expend resources on lower-value targets.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Crimea
🎦 16:03-18:23⏩
Jonathan provides an update on Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian-held territory, focusing on Crimea.
- Sevastopol: Large explosions indicated possible missile strikes. While initial reports lacked specifics, subsequent information confirmed a strike on a Russian command and control post near Sevastopol. There were also strong indications of damage to a radar system and an air defence complex.
- Yevpatoria: The Ukrainian Air Force commander publicly praised his pilots for conducting strikes in Sevastopol and Yevpatoria, suggesting successful hits.
- Other locations: Ukrainian sources reported a strike on a Russian base near Yutne, resulting in numerous casualties.
Jonathan notes that the Ukrainian Air Force commander, Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, reinforced the success claims by posting a clip from a Soviet film on his Telegram feed, implying the destruction of a "secret command post".
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Shift in the Geography of the War
🎦 18:23-18:43⏩
Jonathan argues that the successful Ukrainian strikes on targets deep inside Crimea, including Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, Dzhankoi, and Saki, demonstrate a significant shift in the geographical scope of the war. He stresses that Ukraine's ability to strike targets like Novorossiysk in mainland Russia represents a new phase in the conflict.
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Ukrainian Attacks on Novorossiysk
🎦 18:43-21:23⏩
Jonathan argues that Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk mark a deliberate strategy to target the Black Sea Fleet's new home port. With Sevastopol becoming increasingly vulnerable, Russia is likely to rely more on Novorossiysk, making it a critical target for Ukrainian forces. He predicts that Ukraine will continue to develop and deploy its indigenous missile and drone capabilities to maintain pressure on Russian naval assets.
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Russian Claims vs Reality: Storm Shadow Effectiveness
🎦 21:23-22:27⏩
Jonathan dissects Russian claims regarding the downing of Ukrainian missiles, particularly the Storm Shadow. He highlights the discrepancy between Russian reports, which boast about successfully intercepting numerous Storm Shadow missiles, and the reality on the ground, where evidence suggests a high success rate for these missiles. He cites the recent destruction of a Russian ship in Feodosia by a Storm Shadow as evidence of the missile's effectiveness. He suggests that Russia is engaging in propaganda by exaggerating its air defence capabilities and downplaying the impact of Ukrainian strikes.
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Strategic Importance of Targeting Air Defence Systems
🎦 22:27-23:43⏩
Jonathan believes that Ukraine's strategy of targeting Russian air defence systems, particularly the advanced S-400, is crucial for enabling further strikes. By degrading Russian air defences, Ukraine can create windows of opportunity to hit higher-value targets. He speculates that the recent strikes near Novorossiysk could be aimed at disabling S-400 systems, paving the way for future attacks on the Black Sea Fleet.
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Continued Attacks on Crimea
🎦 23:43-24:37⏩
Jonathan notes further air raid alerts in Sevastopol and the closure of the Kerch Strait Bridge, indicating the possibility of additional Ukrainian attacks in the region. He also points to the presence of US surveillance aircraft, such as the Poseidon P-8A, which often signal impending military action.
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Drone Attack on a Russian Logistics Base in Belgorod
🎦 24:37-25:26⏩
Jonathan reports on a drone attack on a Russian logistics base in the Shebekino district of Belgorod Oblast. The attack, which took place on January 1st, targeted a fuel and lubricant warehouse. The fire quickly spread to nearby buildings, destroying vehicles and injuring eight Russian servicemen, at least one of whom died later in hospital.
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Rumours of Gerasimov's Death
🎦 25:26-26:03⏩
Jonathan addresses rumours circulating online claiming that Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was killed in a Ukrainian missile attack in Crimea. He advises viewers to treat this information with extreme caution, as there is no reliable confirmation.
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Russian Casualties in Saki and the Degradation of Air Defences
🎦 26:03-27:52⏩
Jonathan discusses reports, originating from pro-Russian sources, that confirm the death of approximately 23 Russian soldiers, including five high-ranking officers and nine special forces members, during the Ukrainian strike on the Saki airbase. He highlights the admission by these pro-Russian sources that Russian air defences in Crimea have been severely compromised, making them vulnerable to further attacks. This degradation creates a vicious cycle, where successful Ukrainian strikes further erode Russian defences, enabling even more strikes in the future. Jonathan criticises Russia's failure to adequately suppress Ukrainian air defences at the start of the war, attributing it to their miscalculation of the conflict as a short "special military operation" rather than a full-scale war. This strategic blunder has placed them at a significant disadvantage.
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Ukrainian Strategy in Crimea
🎦 27:52-29:40⏩
Jonathan contrasts Ukraine's approach to air defence suppression with that of Russia. He posits that Ukraine's strategy in Crimea is not necessarily about immediate territorial gains but rather about systematically degrading Russian military capabilities. He uses the example of Novorossiysk, suggesting that Ukraine's targeting of S-400 systems in the area is a deliberate tactic to clear the way for future attacks on Russian naval vessels. Jonathan argues that while the attritional battles on the frontline are important, the strategic strikes on Crimea and mainland Russia are potentially more impactful in shaping the war's outcome.
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Asymmetry in Intelligence Capabilities
🎦 29:40-30:38⏩
Jonathan highlights the disparity in intelligence capabilities between Ukraine and Russia. He contends that Ukraine benefits significantly from Western intelligence support, including real-time data from satellites and surveillance aircraft, enabling them to conduct highly effective strikes against time-sensitive targets. In contrast, he observes that Russia's targeting appears less sophisticated and often focuses on static, pre-determined targets, such as airbases, which are easier to locate but less strategically valuable.
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Russian Military Presence in Civilian Areas in Crimea
🎦 30:38-35:46⏩
Jonathan shows images of residential buildings in Yevpatoria, Crimea, being used as Russian military observation posts armed with machine guns. He notes that such practices are likely not supported by the local population, highlighting the disregard for civilian safety in occupied areas. He argues that the use of civilian infrastructure for military purposes makes these locations legitimate military targets, although he acknowledges the complex ethical considerations involved.
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Wrap up
🎦 35:46-36:15⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He laments that his channel's growth has stagnated and urges viewers to engage with the content by pressing the bell icon to receive notifications.
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