Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia's losses in Ukraine are so high that the Kremlin is having quite serious problems."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another video - today's video is the first part of the Ukraine War Update for 27th July 2024
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Russian losses
🎦 00:09-01:37⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day (26th July 2024):
- Personnel: 1,210 (an increase on the average daily figure)
- Tanks: 11 (slightly higher than average)
- Armoured Personnel Vehicles: 24 (slightly higher than average)
- Artillery Systems: 45 (more than double the average)
Jonathan notes that these figures represent a "pretty good day" for the Ukrainians, given that the higher losses reflect the intensity of Russia's push on the eastern front. He highlights that the quantity of Russian vehicles and fuel tanks being destroyed shows how dire the logistics situation continues to be for the Russians. Jonathan then discusses a comment from defence analyst Andrew Perpetua who has noted an increase in mass infantry attacks by the Russians - literally hundreds of infantry at a time. Andrew Perpetua highlights the lack of availability of mortar rounds for Ukraine to counter these attacks and questions NATO's ability to produce sufficient quantities to meet demand.
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Russia's Mounting Losses
🎦 03:03-03:25⏩
The Kyiv Independent is reporting that Russia's losses are causing serious problems for the Kremlin. Ukrainian military intelligence has confirmed that Ukraine was behind the attack on the Saki airfield in Crimea. Jonathan sarcastically questions whether Russia's plan to send more foreigners to the front lines will involve deploying Steven Seagal or Gerard Depardieu.
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Ukraine Targeting Russian Air Defence Systems
🎦 03:25-05:13⏩
Footage has been released showing the destruction of a Russian Pantsir S1 air defence system in the Kherson region - the latest in a number of similar attacks. This is viewed by many as a deliberate tactic to degrade Russian air defences in advance of the arrival of F-16 fighter jets. Jonathan believes that this strategy has been in place since May 2023 and that degrading Russian capabilities in terms of artillery, air defence, and minefields is critical to paving the way for any successful offensive.
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The Impact of FPV Drones
🎦 5:13-09:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the volume of Russian vehicles losses, using footage of destroyed Russian vehicles along a single road to illustrate the scale of destruction. He talks about the impact of FPV drones in inflicting these losses.
- Whilst some have speculated that Russia may have overtaken Ukraine in terms of FPV drone production, Jonathan is sceptical. He plans to contact defence analysts Oryx, Turchin, and Andrew Perpetua to get more data but believes that the volume of drones being supplied to Ukraine from a variety of countries and organisations far exceeds Russia's capabilities.
- However, a recent report from Euromaidan Press indicates that Ukraine's electronic warfare efforts may be inadvertently targeting some of its own drones (fratricide), a factor that has also been reported by the Russians. Jonathan concedes that this may be true given that the skies are "black with drones".
New Drone Technology: Remote Detonation
🎦 09:10-11:05⏩
Jonathan shares a video showing a new development in FPV drone warfare: remote detonation.
- The video depicts a drone hovering over the closed hatch of a Russian tank. The operator waits for a Russian soldier to open the hatch before detonating the drone.
- This advancement means that FPV drones no longer need to rely on impact detonation (e.g., via a contact trigger or kinetic force) to destroy targets. Instead, drones can be landed on targets and then detonated with a simple press of a button, providing greater precision and control.
Suspected Assassination in Russia
🎦 11:05-12:19⏩
Konstantin Cheromushkin, Russia's former Minister of Natural Resources, has died suddenly near the Yekaterinburg Bar.
- Whilst his death is being attributed to illness, the circumstances - collapsing outside a bar and dying on a bench - have raised suspicions that he may have been poisoned.
- Jonathan notes that there have been a number of suspicious deaths and disappearances amongst public figures in Russia over the past two and a half years and speculates that the life expectancy for those in positions of power may be linked to their willingness to toe the Kremlin line.
Ukrainian Air Defences Intercept Russian Drones and Missiles
🎦 12:20-13:38⏩
Defence analyst Tim White has reported that Ukraine shot down a number of Russian aerial threats overnight:
- One Kh-59 guided air missile
- Four Shaheed drones
- One Forpost attack or recon drone
- Four Supercam drones
- Two Lancet drones
- Other unidentified drones
Whilst there are reports of fires in the Kyiv region (possibly grass fires caused by downed drones), no specific information on the success rate of interceptions or the locations of impact is provided. Turning to Russian reports, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims to have intercepted 21 Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region, although Jonathan believes it's highly likely some drones got through.
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Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Territory
🎦 13:39-16:45⏩
Ukrainian drones have targeted the Russian city of Ryazan, reportedly striking an oil refinery and the Dyagilevo military airfield.
- Whilst the Russian MoD claims to have intercepted all the drones, there are confirmed images of drones in the area and plumes of smoke, although the extent of the damage remains unclear.
- The reliable Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber has reported that Ukrainian drones, including at least one long-range Boba strike drone, were seen over the city and that air defences were deployed. The fact that no losses were mentioned may indicate that the airfield was undamaged.
- Jonathan reiterates his view that overwhelming Russian air defences by deploying hundreds of drones simultaneously (rather than just a couple) is the most effective strategy.
Jonathan then provides an update on the damage caused to the S300V air defence system at Novoozerne in Crimea on 21st July 2024. Whilst one source indicated that no transporter erector launchers (TELs) were destroyed, other more reliable sources suggest the opposite. Citing CyberBaroshna as the source, Max24 claims that the following equipment was destroyed in the attack:
- Two Imbir radars (used by the S300V system)
- Four S-300 launchers
- Two S-300V launchers
- Eight ATACMS also destroyed a repair shop used for servicing air defence systems
Jonathan acknowledges that there is conflicting information on the damage inflicted and that satellite imagery of the site is inconclusive, but concedes that if Max24's report is accurate, this was a significant blow to Russian air defences.
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Romania Denies Downing Russian Drones
🎦 16:48-18:43⏩
Following conflicting reports earlier in the week, the Romanian Ministry of Defence has officially denied shooting down any Russian drones over Ukraine. This contradicts videos purportedly showing Romanian air defence units engaging Russian drones. Furthermore, the Romanian Prime Minister has clarified that Romania cannot shoot down Russian drones over Ukraine unless they are given permission to fire into Ukrainian territory. Despite these denials, Jonathan believes that it's plausible that Romania is discreetly shooting down drones in the border region, justifying it on the grounds that they pose a threat to Romanian territory and shipping. He points out that a river separates the two countries at the point where Russia is launching drones at Ukrainian ports and that overshooting is likely.
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Zelensky Concerned about the Prokrosk Sector
🎦 18:47-19:13⏩
President Zelensky has highlighted the critical situation in the Prokrosk sector, ordering Ukrainian forces to strengthen defences. The Russians have been making incremental but consistent gains in this sector every day. Whilst Ukraine waits for Russia to commit sufficient resources to the area (and for them to reach Ukraine's main defensive line), there is a palpable sense of anxiety.
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Russia Relocates Military Assets
🎦 19:15-20:39⏩
Frontelligence Insight has published a report for its subscribers based on a geospatial analysis of Russian military assets, concluding that Russia has relocated numerous high-value jets, attack helicopters, and logistics further into its territory. This relocation, which took place between the second half of June and mid-July, is thought to be a pre-emptive measure to protect them from potential Ukrainian ATACM strikes and other long-range Western weaponry. Whilst there may be some short-term drawbacks, the report concludes that the relocation of Su-34 and Su-35 jets is unlikely to impact Russia's ability to conduct bombing raids on static targets in Ukraine. Jonathan expresses his frustration that Russia has been given the time to adapt its strategy and relocate key assets, rendering any future supply of long-range weapons less effective than they would have been.
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Ukrainian Attack on Russian Ferry
🎦 20:39-22:33⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the recent Ukrainian attack on a Russian rail ferry operating between Russia and Crimea.
- Citing analysis by Georgian_Legion, he explains that the ferry, which was the last one in Russia's possession, was a crucial component in Russia's logistics chain, transporting approximately 75% of supplies to Crimea and Russian forces in occupied southern Ukraine.
- The attack on the ferry was deliberate, and its removal from service has left Russia with a significant logistical headache. Jonathan notes that following the attack, all Russian warships have withdrawn from the Sea of Azov.
Putin Purges Military Leaders
🎦 22:33-23:35⏩
Amidst a backdrop of a collapsing economy, Putin has begun purging senior military figures.
- The state-controlled media outlet TASS has reported on the arrest of former Deputy Defence Minister, Dmitry Bulgakov, the latest in a string of arrests and disappearances.
- This follows the recent sidelining of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the appointment of Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev.
- Analyst Tim Hogan believes that this may be a tactic by Putin to exert control and instil fear within the military. However, if it escalates into a full-blown purge, it could easily backfire, potentially leading to a coup or attempts by individuals to flee the country.
Russian Concerns over US Elections
🎦 23:35-24:24⏩
Jonathan argues that the potential decline of Donald Trump's political ambitions is causing concern amongst Russia's elite and impacting Putin's strategy.
- Russian propagandists are becoming increasingly concerned by the possibility of Kamala Harris winning the next US election, fearing that this would lead to an escalation in US support for Ukraine.
- The Kremlin may be pinning its hopes on a Trump victory to undermine US support for Ukraine, a key plank in their military strategy. If a Trump victory is no longer a realistic prospect, this is likely to have a significant impact on decision-making in the Kremlin.
Russian Economy in Crisis
🎦 24:24-28:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the parlous state of the Russian economy, reeling from a combination of interest rate hikes, sanctions, and the financial drain of war.
- The Russian Central Bank has been forced to hike interest rates by a further 2%, bringing the headline rate to 18% in an attempt to control inflation. The move, which follows a similar emergency intervention in February 2022, has done little to reassure the markets.
- According to the Australian intelligence community (citing Russian sources), the head of the Russian Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, has conceded that the country's labour and industrial resources are virtually exhausted.
- High interest rates mean that ordinary Russians have little incentive to spend or take out loans, further depressing economic activity.
- The situation is compounded by the impact of Western sanctions, wage inflation, and a shortage of skilled labour caused by the war.
- Jonathan highlights the wider impact of the war on Russia, including a critical shortage of firefighters (many have been sent to fight in Ukraine) and a lack of investment in Russia's crumbling infrastructure, factors that are contributing to widespread flooding and an unprecedented number of forest fires.
- He reveals that Russia has resorted to offering exorbitant salaries to attract people to join the military, a sign of its desperation to recruit. These high wages, coupled with the risks associated with fighting in Ukraine, are draining skilled workers from essential services and other lower-paid jobs.
A Heart-Warming Rescue
🎦 28:13-29:21⏩
After such a bleak set of news updates, Jonathan ends on a heart-warming note, sharing a video of a dog and her puppy being rescued from a shelled building in Ukraine. He recounts another story he saw recently of a dog that had lost an eye as a result of shelling.
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Wrap Up
🎦 29:21-29:41⏩
Jonathan thanks everyone for watching, reminding them to like, subscribe and share. He explains that his output may be delayed due to a prior engagement, his son's football match.
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