Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News
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Table of Contents 📖
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"There's all this playing around with capabilities, moving from 10-kilometer range to 22-kilometer range that we're now starting to see. This is a constantly evolving sector of this war and it's going to be very interesting to see where drones go."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war, focusing on military aid and geopolitics news in this second part of the 1st November 2023 update.
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Russian Claims of Ukrainian Losses
- Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu made dubious claims about shooting down 37 Ukrainian aircraft and 6 ATACMS missiles in October
- Shoigu appears to be "living in a dream world" according to analyst Tim White
- Jonathan rarely reports Ukrainian loss figures from Russian sources due to their lack of credibility
Military Aid
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed providing F-16s to Ukraine blurs the line between indirect and direct involvement, which Jonathan sees as an arbitrary distinction
- Ukraine will receive €335 million in aid from the European Commission for recovery and reforms
- Drones are constantly evolving in the war, with smaller drones carrying anti-tank grenades and optical guidance systems allowing kamikaze drones to operate at night
- Unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) with automated gun turrets are becoming a reality on the battlefield
Russian Recruitment
- Russia is pursuing "crypto mobilization" to get boots on the ground without a politically damaging mass public mobilization
- Debtors' data has been transferred to the Russian Ministry of Defence to pressure them to sign up for military service or pay their debts
- Most debtors are around 40 years old with families to support, and the MOD is tempting them with benefits like credit freezes and preferential mortgages
Missile Modifications
- Ukraine's Air Force spokesperson revealed Russia has modified its Kh-class cruise missiles with optical guidance heads to fly like loitering munitions
- Jonathan is unsure how useful cameras will be on such fast missiles and invites expert opinions in the comments
US Aid to Israel and Ukraine
- The US Republican party wants to separate aid to Israel from a package that includes funding for Ukraine and other priorities
- Jonathan sees this as a bizarre political situation with the right wing supporting Israel to be anti-Muslim, despite some underlying anti-Semitism
- President Biden has threatened to veto the bill if Ukraine aid is not included
- Jonathan wonders if the limited gains in Ukraine's counter-offensive are making the US realize they need to provide aid faster to maintain support before war fatigue sets in
Republican Demands for Ukraine Aid
- Republican Mike Garcia published sensible demands for continued US funding to Ukraine, including more transparency, a clear victory strategy, and criteria for ending the war
- Jonathan agrees these have been lacking from the Biden administration and most Ukraine supporters
- However, the US may be hesitant to set out explicit goals to avoid escalating the situation by directly saying they want to beat Russia in the war
EU Sanctions and Support for Ukraine
- The EU is discussing new restrictions on exports to Russia of items like welding machines and chemicals that can be used for military purposes, aiming to hit trade by $5.3 billion
- This may be in response to reports of Russian companies still using Western machines and components
- Ukraine and Moldova will be able to formally start EU accession talks, but with major caveats requiring more progress on issues like the judiciary, minority rights and anti-corruption measures
- There can be no fast track for accession as it would be unfair to countries already in the process
Enforcement of Russia Sanctions
- A US citizen and two Russian-Canadian nationals were arrested for allegedly smuggling $10 million of restricted electronics to support Russia's war effort
- Over 300 shipments were sent over the past year to evade sanctions
Serbian Elections
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has dissolved parliament and called early elections for December 17th, less than 2 years after the previous elections
- Jonathan believes Vučić is playing the system to keep his party in power amid rising ultra-nationalism fomented by Russia
Macron Visits Kazakhstan
- French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Kazakhstan to meet with the Prime Minister and discuss strengthening trade, investment and energy cooperation
- Jonathan sees this as part of a trend of Western nations engaging with Eurasian countries to pull them away from Russia's sphere of influence
- However, China is also vying for influence in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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