Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a bumper news update and apologises that it's late. He explains that school is about to start and his son has started playing football and rugby, meaning his weekend schedule is now a lot busier than before.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Figures - Russian Losses 30/08/2024
🎦 01:08-02:22⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for 30/08/2024 noting that personnel losses are very high at 1,360. 8 Tanks, 14 AFVs is about average but 42 artillery systems is double the daily average. 62 vehicles and fuel tanks were also destroyed.
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Oryx/Perpetua's visually confirmed losses for 30/08/2024
🎦 02:22-03:09⏩
Moving on to Oryx's visually confirmed figures, Jonathan notes that Ukraine has experienced higher equipment losses recently, although this includes Starlink equipment and civilian vehicles. Overall, combat losses are about half of the Russians.
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Analysis of Civilian Vehicle Losses (Oryx Data)
🎦 03:10-03:44⏩
Ukraine's civilian vehicle losses have been higher than the Russians recently - double the number lost compared to the Russians. This could be because they have fewer combat assets (as per Russian claims) or because they are using them more in the Kursk region where they are attacking. Jonathan doubts the former is true as this area is more positional now. The Russians have lost a lot of equipment in the Prokrosk and Southern regions according to Perpetua.
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Ukrainian equipment losses (Oryx data)
🎦 04:00-04:32⏩
Reviewing the Ukrainian losses in detail, Jonathan notes there's not too much to worry about - lots of comms equipment, one boat damaged, artillery pieces damaged, and an equal number of damaged/destroyed tanks. One IFV was abandoned, one destroyed (BMPs so nothing to worry about) and a couple of older vehicles were also damaged. There were a lot of civilian vehicle losses (pickup trucks mainly) - all taken out by FPV drones as well as two ATVs captured.
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Russian Equipment Losses (Oryx data)
🎦 04:32-06:40⏩
Looking at the Russian equipment losses in detail, Jonathan points out there's nothing too significant at the top of the list. He then notes there are quite a few tanks - almost 10 in total with a significant number captured in the Kursk direction (including a T80 BVM Mod 2022). A Ukrainian reporter (who Jonathan will try to find a link for) has a video showing a recently captured T-90. A T90M was also damaged (cause unknown) as well as a T72B and T80BVM abandoned. Quite a lot of IFVs were also lost - half BMPs, half BTR-82ATs (the latter all damaged, the former mainly abandoned/destroyed). All 4 APCs were destroyed and there were a number of civilian and unknown vehicle losses but not as many as the Ukrainians.
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Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 06:40-07:09⏩
Jonathan summarises the losses, concluding that the equipment losses suggest that the Russians are doing more attacking than the Ukrainians. He notes the Russians are losing a lot of combat assets whilst the Ukrainians are losing more civilian vehicles which tells a story.
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Media Zona/BBC Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 07:09-09:53⏩
Jonathan discusses the latest Media Zona/BBC Russian analysis of Russian personnel losses which is based on open source research (verifying obituaries, funerals, social media posts etc). He stresses that to be included in the statistics there must be a direct link to the war e.g. confirmation in an obituary that the person died in the war. This means that the figures given (66,000 Russians killed) is the absolute minimum number. The real figure will be much higher. This doesn't include losses from the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republic forces either. Media Zona and Meduza estimate that the true losses are likely to be around 120,000 based on inheritance/probate records. The Ukrainian General Staff figures are higher (over 500,000) but they are now thought to include all military casualties (killed, wounded, POW and deserted). Zelensky previously claimed 180,000 Russian soldiers had been killed, and 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers - figures which Jonathan thinks are deliberately low to help morale. He concludes by saying that the Russians have taken some really heavy casualties but we won't know for sure how many for years.
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Nalcio's Visually Confirmed Equipment Losses by Region (Prokrovs'k, Kharkiv, Kursk)
🎦 11:02-14:03⏩
Jonathan reviews Nalcio's visually confirmed equipment losses by region noting that the ratios in each area are different. In the Prokrosk direction the ratio of equipment losses is 5:1 (Russian:Ukrainian). In Kharkiv it is 2:1 which Jonathan puts down to the Ukrainians losing a lot of equipment at the beginning when the Russians used medium-range missiles to attack. In the Kursk region, where the Ukrainians are attacking, the ratio is 1.5:1 (Ukrainian:Russian). Jonathan points out that when a side is attacking they are more likely to experience heavier losses as they will be using more equipment. He notes that the Ukrainians have done a better job at mitigating against losses (probably because the Russians don't really care - for them it's territory, territory, territory. They also don't seem to value equipment that much, just throwing it in). The Russians are doing slightly better in the Kharkiv region as it was a surprise attack. The Ukrainians are doing better in the Kursk region because they have done a better job of mitigating against losses than the Russians who don't care.
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Ukrainian Troops Capture 7 Russian Tanks in Kursk
🎦 14:08-14:44⏩
Jonathan talks about a report that Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region have captured 7 Russian tanks (1 x T-90M, 4 x T-80BVMs and 2 x T-72s). Some of the tanks captured were new, straight off the production line, whilst others need repair. Jonathan points out that for the Ukrainians this is a "Zero Sum gain" - they gain a tank, the Russians lose a tank, which they can then use against the Russians. It's much better than destroying a tank which is not a zero-sum gain - the Russians lose a tank, but the Ukrainians don't gain one.
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Russian Column Destroyed by HIMARS in Kursk
🎦 14:52-15:55⏩
Jonathan reports that two nights ago a Russian column was destroyed by HIMARS, resulting in significant Russian losses. He goes on to say that a pontoon crossing was destroyed in the Kursk region. A Telegram channel called "Belgorod People's Republic" claims that a number of engineering vehicles were destroyed in the village of Zvanoia in the Kursk region. Jonathan shows footage of a number of destroyed vehicles.
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Russian Pontoon Bridge Destroyed in Kursk
🎦 15:55-16:44⏩
Jonathan shows footage of the pontoon bridge in Zvanoia, Kursk, that was destroyed showing viewers what he thinks was a bridge that had already been blown up with a pontoon bridge built over the top that was then targeted.
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Russian Missile Strike on Ammo Warehouse in Sumy
🎦 16:44-17:46⏩
Jonathan talks about an explosion in Sumy yesterday morning (in response to a comment by Tim White). Russia has claimed it hit a temporary Ukrainian deployment point in Chernetskina, killing 35 soldiers (although Jonathan is sceptical). Initially he thought that the explosion footage didn't match ground photos but it appears the Russians may have carried out two strikes, one on a troop deployment point and a second on an ammo warehouse which ties in with the photos.
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Ukrainian Wild Hornets Interdicting Russian Recon Drones
🎦 17:46-18:27⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian Wild Hornet drones are becoming increasingly successful in shooting down Russian reconnaissance drones (Orlan 10/30s, Zhalas) - he shows footage of 12 drones being shot down. The Ukrainians are increasingly using kamikaze FPV drones to hit the drones, stopping them from acting as spotters for missile strikes.
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Chronic Shortage of Military Vehicles in Russian Army
🎦 18:27-28:13⏩
Jonathan picks up on a thread by Chris O_wickey on Twitter about the chronic shortage of military vehicles in the Russian army. Civilian vehicles are increasingly being used, and this is reflected in the losses. Jonathan has seen this trend emerging for a while and the thread confirms this. He reads the thread in full which talks about how the Russian military police have been ordered to confiscate unregistered civilian vehicles - a move that is causing friction between troops and the military police.
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MI-8 Helicopter Crash in Kamchatka (not military related)
🎦 28:13-28:52⏩
Jonathan reports that an MI-8 helicopter on a tourist flight has crashed in Kamchatka. It is feared that all 22 people on board have died. He notes that these accidents appear to be happening quite frequently in Russia and speculates whether it could be down to poor aviation maintenance.
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Large Fire in Moscow
🎦 28:52-30:16⏩
Jonathan reports that there has been a large fire in a 3-storey building in Moscow. Although the footage initially released doesn't show the extent of the blaze, footage has since emerged showing that it was a significant incident. It took 110 firemen, helicopters, drones and even a firefighting ship to put out the fire which burned for a number of hours. No casualties have been reported. Anton Gerashchenko (advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine) has been quick to point out that Russia is struggling to put fires out - even in Moscow. Jonathan agrees with this assessment - firefighters are often conscripts who are needed to fight in Ukraine, so who is left to put the fires out? He speculates that it's something to watch in terms of whether it's sabotage or just down to random Russian smokers (his dry sense of humour coming through here!).
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Overnight Drone Attacks 30-31/08/2024
🎦 30:16-32:23⏩
Jonathan reports that there were a number of drone attacks overnight. The Russians are maintaining a high tempo of drone attacks which suggests that domestic production is good, although he notes a report that a rocket-powered drone shot down was a decoy - it didn't have a warhead, optics or any reconnaissance equipment. He speculates that this could be a deliberate tactic by the Russians to try and deplete Ukrainian air defence stocks (e.g. by forcing them to use expensive Patriot missiles to shoot down cheap drones). 52 Shahed drones were launched overnight - 24 were shot down, 25 crashed before they reached their target (thought to be down to electronic warfare which is becoming increasingly effective), 2 returned to Russia and one went to Belarus. This is a 100% success rate in terms of the drones not hitting their targets, although one Iskander-M ballistic missile and four S-300 missiles did get through. He ends by saying that we shouldn't ignore the attacks that get through as they will be inflicting damage e.g. on factories.
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Russian Missile Strikes on Kharkiv - 7 (possibly 6) Killed and up to 97 Wounded
🎦 32:23-36:23⏩
Jonathan reports that 7 people have been killed (although some reports say 6), with 97 wounded (including 22 children, one of whom was a 10-month old baby) following Russian missile strikes on a residential building in Kharkiv. He is clearly angered by the attacks and the loss of life, especially the death of an 18 year old artist called Veronica Kushushko, whose picture he shows. Zelensky has slammed the attacks, pointing out that 5 guided glide bombs were dropped. In his response, Zelensky stressed the need for Ukraine to be able to target Russian aircraft at their airbases to prevent attacks like this from happening as it is impossible to shoot down glide bombs. Jonathan agrees, stating that the US needs to allow this to happen.
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Missiles Strike Belgrade - Russia Claims Ukrainian Attack but likely Electronic Warfare/Russian Air Defences
🎦 36:23-38:39⏩
Jonathan reports that two missiles have struck a highway in Belgorod, although there are conflicting reports about what happened. Some reports suggest that they were Ukrainian missiles, but Jonathan is sceptical, pointing out that it is more likely to be a result of Russian electronic warfare and their own air defences. The Russians are claiming that the Ukrainians are responsible but he doesn't believe that they would waste missiles attacking non-military targets. It is more likely that it was Russian EW or Russian air defences that are to blame. He has already seen evidence that Russian Pantsir S1 air defence missiles have landed in Belgorod in the past, and thinks this is the most likely explanation.
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Fire at Atlas Oil Depot, Rostov
🎦 38:39-39:11⏩
Jonathan reports that a fire at the Atlas Oil Depot in Rostov has been burning for 4 days after a Ukrainian drone strike. Initially 2 fuel tanks caught fire but a number of other tanks have since exploded. Russian attempts to put out the fire are proving ineffective. Jonathan suspects that the fire at the oil depot in Proletarsk, which burned for 14 days, has now been extinguished as he hasn't heard anything.
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Prokros'k: Ukrainian Serviceman Osman's Comments about Russian Reserves
🎦 39:11-39:58⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from a Ukrainian serviceman called Osman from the 24th AIda Battalion who has been fighting in the Prokrosk region, as well as Bakhmut and Kharkiv. He claims that the Russians are throwing everything they have got into the area - reserves are even higher than they were in Bakhmut because they can sense victory. He is critical of the Ukrainian response, claiming that they haven't built enough fortifications and concentrated too much on destroying Russian infantry.
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Prokros'k: Ukrainian National Guard Deploys Offensive Karadag Brigade
🎦 39:58-40:39⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ukrainians have deployed the 2,000 strong Karadag Brigade to Prokros'k but this has not stopped the Russian advance. The Russians are wondering where the remaining Ukrainian Reserve Brigades are and what their plans are? Jonathan explores some of the possible scenarios but suspects that the truth is more likely that they are not fully trained and equipped. He questions why they weren't deployed earlier if they were available.
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Kursk: Russian War Correspondent Romanov's Assessment
🎦 40:42-41:32⏩
Jonathan discusses the assessment of Russian War Correspondent, Romanav, who believes that the Ukrainians are unlikely to be pushed back from the territory they have taken in Kursk before the end of the war. This is in part down to the number of Ukrainian FPV drones operating in the area which make it extremely dangerous. He also points out that the frontline is very fluid and the risks of friendly fire are high, which is something that has happened. He ends by saying that the Ukrainians appear to be using similar tactics to the Wagner group, probing for weaknesses and then exploiting them.
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Ukraine: Commander of Ukrainian Air Force Dismissed
🎦 41:32-42:45⏩
Jonathan reports that the Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Nikola Oleschuk, has been dismissed and replaced by Anatoly Krivnojoko (acting commander). This has happened on National Air Force Day, just after the crash of an F-16 that killed one of their pilots. He speculates on the reasons why he may have been dismissed. It could just be that a change is needed to bring in fresh ideas, or it could be something more serious. He wonders if it's anything to do with the F-16 crash.
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Russia: Former Deputy Defence Minister Popov Arrested along with Family Members and Staff
🎦 42:45-43:24⏩
Jonathan reports that the former Russian Deputy Defence Minister, General Popov has been arrested along with his wife, two adult children, his secretary and his deputy - Major General Mikhail Mironov - who are all missing. This is part of an ongoing purge of the Russian military hierarchy.
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Mariupol: Manfred Mariupol's Comments about Life in Occupied City
🎦 43:24-44:00⏩
Jonathan talks about a post by Manfred Mariupol, who states that Russian soldiers have been going into people's homes in Mariupol, humiliating and dictating to residents.
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Ukraine/Russia: Secret Telephone Line Severed
🎦 44:00-44:18⏩
Jonathan reports that the secret telephone line between Kyiv and Moscow, which has been in place since 1998, has been disconnected.
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Russia - Omsk: State of Emergency Declared due to Heavy Rainfall
🎦 44:18-45:10⏩
Jonathan reports that a state of emergency has been declared in the Omsk region of Russia, one of the largest grain producing regions, due to heavy rainfall. This is likely to have a significant impact on the harvest (and therefore Russia's economy). Trent Telenko (who Jonathan follows on Twitter) believes that the issues go deeper - Russia lacks the fuel and manpower to run the harvest combines. When combined with the damage already inflicted on fuel depots and refineries, this could be problematic.
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Kharkiv: "God Save our Souls, Patriot Saves our Lives"
🎦 45:10-45:54⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a geoglyph, "God Save our Souls, Patriot Saves our Lives", that has been created in the carpark of a DIY superstore that was completely destroyed by the Russians in Kharkiv. Jonathan notes that this highlights that what Ukraine needs is Patriot missiles (and more of them), not thoughts and prayers.
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Wrap Up
🎦 45:54-45:58⏩
Jonathan signs off as he always does.
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"I mean there is this idea that firefighters, certainly out in wildfire sort of areas, have been drafted into the...well that work is done by conscripts, and the conscripts themselves are just fighting and defending the borders of Russia. And so there is a distinct inability for the Russians to put out fires....and another big fire....I don't know if it's got anything to do with sabotage or anything in particular, whether it's just a random Russian smoker but certainly something to keep an eye on in Moscow there."
