Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"Chaziv Yar is becoming an increasingly important place for us as the weather changes from cold to warm it sits on a hill surrounded by wetlands and marshes in order for the enemy to get on to kramatorsk they have to take the town and that will probably require at least the same forces as bahmut the chance that the enemy would start advancing anywhere else than here in the Donbass is minimal. This is probably where the war will be decided when we get the really heavy weapons and when the weather permits."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a frontline update for February 2, 2023. He notes that shelling seems to have dropped off a bit, especially around the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut/Svatove-Kreminna frontlines, though it has increased slightly near Kharkiv. He questions if this is because the Russians are preparing for something or due to ammunition shortages.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kreminna to Svatove Frontline
- According to Defmon, Ukrainians repelled attacks near Yampolivka and Spirne. Larger scale attacks are expected in the Kreminna area.
- No territory changes near Kreminna, but Russian troops are attacking northwest between Kreminna and Yampolivka/Terny. A big attack was repelled there.
- Around Svatove, no changes inside Kuzmivka but there are battles. This is the only place Ukrainians are on the offensive.
- The ISW reports heavy fighting near Kreminna and Svatove per the Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai. Russians are accumulating manpower and equipment but have not yet formed an assault group.
- A Russian milblogger claimed Russians repelled Ukrainian advances into Kreminna and targeted Ukrainian supply routes, advancing into the forest west of Kreminna. The same source made conflicting claims of both Ukrainian attacks and Russian advances.
Bakhmut Area
The Russians are putting pressure on Bakhmut from all directions:
- Geolocated footage shows slight Russian advances northeast near Krasna Hora, on the northeast and eastern outskirts of Bakhmut itself, and south near Opytne and southern outskirts
- A Russian milblogger claimed Wagner advanced 3-4km in Blahodatne and along certain streets on Bakhmut's northern and eastern edges. They also claimed advances northwest of Klishchiivka towards Ivanivske.
- Russians claim to have taken full control of Sakko i Vantsetti but this is disputed by Ukrainian sources
- Fighting continues north of Bakhmut around Krasna Hora which has not fallen
- In the northeast near the Siniat plant and winery, Russians made some inroads
- The decision for Ukraine to potentially withdraw from Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar is likely being made to avoid encirclement. Chasiv Yar has more defensible terrain.
Russian Tactics in Bakhmut
A Ukrainian serviceman provided insight into evolving Russian tactics in Bakhmut:
- Russia has committed more elite Wagner and GRU special forces and recon units to augment human wave attacks
- Unarmed personnel infiltrate to deliver weapons and ammo to frontline positions, often approaching Ukrainian positions undetected
- Russians then identify and destroy the buildings Ukrainian forces are operating out of
While helping reinvigorate Russian advances in Bakhmut, these tactics are not likely scalable to larger offensive operations and rely on the urban cover that Bakhmut provides.
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Vuhledar and Other Frontlines
- In Vuhledar, Russian forces keep attacking with little success. 3-5k troops were reportedly brought to Mariupol as "new meat for the grinder"
- After initial assault plans failed, Russians are moving in units from other areas (e.g. 3rd Army Corps brigade, 36th Army battalions). This "sunk cost fallacy" will likely make the battle longer and bloodier.
- Russia has shifted from ground attacks to artillery in Vuhledar due to lack of "pushing power" after heavy losses. They may be waiting for reinforcements.
- No significant news from the Zaporizhzhia or Kherson fronts, other than an ammo depot struck in Zaporizhzhia and small recon boat missions by both sides around islands in the Dnipro delta.
Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks viewers for bearing with him through the update and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He hopes it was useful and signs off until next time.
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