Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"And then, like, cut. Helmets"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:21⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video. This is the second part of Ukraine War News Update for the 20th January 2024.
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United States: Biden Administration warns lawmakers that failure to provide military aid will likely lead to a Russian victory
🎦 00:21-15:56⏩
Jonathan opens the segment by referencing concerns raised in Part A about the short term impact of the lack of military aid and how artillery units are having to withdraw/concede territory due to ammunition shortages. Jonathan notes that whilst long term aid strategies are important, they don't help the immediate situation.
- President Biden's top aides, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, held a private meeting with lawmakers to give a "grim assessment" about the effects of the US withholding military aid, going so far as to say that Russia could win the war within weeks.
- Lawmakers were told that Ukraine's air defense and artillery capabilities would be depleted in a matter of weeks and were given classified timeframes based on intelligence assessments.
- Biden aides also warned that a failure by the US to provide aid would have a global impact, prompting US allies (including Japan and South Korea) to rethink their alliances with the US.
- Whilst there was bipartisan agreement about the importance of aiding Ukraine, disagreements about the legislative process were acknowledged.
- Jonathan analyses a CNN report downplaying the short-term impact of the US withholding aid, suggesting that it is likely to become a significant issue once Russia regroups. Jonathan shares his view that both the short and long term effects are an issue and criticises the CNN report as downplaying the importance of aid.
- Jonathan examines a CNN report about a meeting between Biden and lawmakers about the state of the Ukraine war. Biden is reported to have warned that US personnel would have to be directly involved in the conflict if it spills into NATO territory.
- Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who wants to tie aid to Ukraine with an immigration deal, is reported to have said that continued funding risks turning the conflict into a quagmire like Afghanistan. Jonathan disagrees with the comparison to Afghanistan, arguing that this is a completely different (and more serious) situation.
- Johnson is also reported as saying that the US needs a clear strategy and endgame from Biden before committing further funding. Jonathan disagrees, arguing that Johnson is putting the "cart before the horse" by expecting a strategy before understanding what resources are available (referencing the work of Anders Puck Nielsen).
- Jonathan highlights the concerns within the White House and Kyiv that Trump would cut support if he was re-elected in November.
- Mike Johnson is cited as being in close contact with Trump in relation to Ukraine policy, with Trump's messaging being mirrored by Johnson's.
- US and Western intelligence officials believe that the war in Ukraine is likely to continue for another 2-5 years.
- The article also highlights the push by the Biden administration to get funding approved before the 2024 election to avoid it being blocked by a potential Trump administration.
- Concerns are raised about the prospect of funding drying up, with one US military official stationed in Europe stating "We are out of money. The administration was able to do some magic but we're getting down to the last of it".
- A Western intelligence source is quoted as saying "Basically everything depends on Biden getting re-elected, doesn't it?". Jonathan reveals that he tends to agree with the analysis and hopes that if Trump was re-elected that he could be persuaded about the importance of continuing to provide aid.
EU: European Union countries on track to produce 1.3 to 1.4 million artillery shells in 2024, most of which will go to Ukraine as military aid
🎦 15:57-17:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes the news that the EU is set to increase production to 1.3-1.4 million artillery shells this year, with most being sent to Ukraine. He expresses his frustration at criticism levelled at the EU for not meeting the target of 1 million shells by March 2024. Jonathan points out that the fact that the EU put a specific target on the number of shells is commendable, despite not being met, and that a more realistic target has been set for the coming year.
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Netherlands: Netherlands donates mobile field hospital to Ukraine
🎦 17:17-18:14⏩
Jonathan reports on the donation of a mobile field hospital by the Netherlands. The hospital can be erected quickly, much like a modern tent and has been designed to operate at low temperatures.
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Germany: Taurus manufacturer says they can increase production and overhaul existing inventory but need an order from the Government
🎦 18:14-20:18⏩
Jonathan discusses a statement by the managing director of Taurus Systems GMBH, the manufacturer of the Taurus cruise missile, that they are in a position to overhaul existing inventory and increase production if an order was made by the German Government.
- The statement comes after claims by German defence politician Johannes Aret of the SPD (Social Democratic Party of Germany), that Germany is unable to provide Taurus missiles as this would leave Germany vulnerable. The politician is also reported as saying that production of new missiles is not possible in the short term.
- Jonathan notes that Aret's comments are "embarrassing" as they have been contradicted by MBDA Deutschland (the manufacturer). Jonathan concludes that there appears to be no rationale for Germany not supplying Taurus missiles.
France: Discussion about the cost of 78 new Caesar howitzers for Ukraine and whether France should foot the bill
🎦 20:19-21:46⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent announcement that France will build 78 new Caesar howitzers, six of which will be paid for by Ukraine.
- It is unclear who will fund the remaining 72 howitzers, but Jonathan, quoting a comment from a viewer "JR", suggests that France is in a position to foot the bill, calculating the cost to be around 300 million Euros. This is based on the reported cost of 50 million Euros for 12 howitzers.
- Jonathan reports that France has already provided 3.2 billion Euros in aid since the start of the conflict (according to recent reports). This is half that of the UK and a smaller fraction of Germany's contribution. Jonathan agrees with JR that France can, and should, afford to pay for the 72 howitzers.
France: Discussion about French supplied military equipment currently in service in Ukraine
🎦 21:46-23:00⏩
- Jonathan reports that 54 Caesar howitzers are currently in operation in Ukraine.
- He also states that Ukraine wants France to provide more SAMP/T air defence systems, Crotale missile systems, Mistral missile systems and electronic warfare systems.
- The performance of the AMX-10 RC "wheeled tanks" is then discussed, noting previous concerns about the light armour of the vehicles and the implications for crew safety. Jonathan is surprised by claims that the AMX-10s are performing well and questions what roles they are being used for and whether they are too close to the front line.
France/Italy: Ukrainian praise for US Patriot systems may have negatively impacted the appeal of French/Italian SAMP/T systems
🎦 23:00-24:54⏩
- Jonathan discusses a comment from a French viewer (Thierry) about the ramifications of Zelensky's recent praise for the effectiveness of Patriot air defence systems.
- The concern is that this may have a negative impact on manufacturers of SAMP/T (the French/Italian competitor to Patriot), particularly as there are currently very few SAMP/T systems in Ukraine.
- Jonathan argues that Zelensky's praise for the Patriot provides an opportunity for SAMP/T manufacturers to lobby governments to send SAMP/T systems to Ukraine, in a bid to level the playing field and promote their systems.
Italy: What military aid might be included in the upcoming 8th aid package?
🎦 24:54-27:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the upcoming 8th Italian military aid package.
- He highlights the need for artillery ammunition, and suggests that 155mm Volcano guided munitions may be included in the package.
- Jonathan suggests that Italy could provide Iveco VTMM armoured vehicles (discussing the range of variants) and VBL Puma 4x4 armoured vehicles.
- He also suggests that Italy should provide Oto Melara CIO Freccia infantry fighting vehicles, suggesting that the mortar carrier and anti-tank variants would be particularly useful. Jonathan acknowledges a comment from a viewer that Spike anti-tank missiles (fitted to the anti-tank variant of the CIO Freccia) are unlikely to be allowed to be sent to Ukraine.
- Jonathan rounds up the discussion by suggesting that MBDA Marte ER anti-ship missiles would be a useful addition to the package but acknowledges another comment from a viewer who believes that Ukraine's anti-ship missile needs are already covered.
Italy: Discussion in the comments about Italian military aid
🎦 27:05-28:21⏩
Jonathan discusses a comment from a viewer who agrees that Ukraine needs more SAMP/T systems but believes that Italy is unable to provide any more. The viewer also notes that they do not believe that Volcano munitions have been sent to Ukraine yet and questions whether any Freccios will be sent, due to restrictions on the Spike ATGM system. Jonathan acknowledges the comment about Spike ATGMs. Jonathan concludes by agreeing that more SAMP/T systems are needed in Ukraine if they are to be seen as an effective competitor to the Patriot system.
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Estonia: Estonia increases annual development aid to Ukraine by 15.2 million Euros
🎦 28:22-28:46⏩
Jonathan reports that Estonia has increased development aid to Ukraine by 15.2 million Euros. He notes that the Baltic states have been consistently strong supporters of Ukraine.
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France: Macron urges French defence companies to increase production
🎦 28:46-29:27⏩
President Macron has urged French defence companies to increase production to support Ukraine. Jonathan once again notes that this is likely to be dependent on orders being made.
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Ukraine: Ukraine modernises and refits Mi-2MSB helicopters
🎦 29:28-29:47⏩
Jonathan welcomes reports that Ukraine is modernising and refitting Mi-2MSB helicopters.
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United Kingdom: Successful tests of Dragonfire laser weapon system
🎦 29:49-30:48⏩
Jonathan reports that the UK Ministry of Defence has successfully tested the Dragonfire laser weapon system against an aerial target at a cost of £100 million. He jokes that science fiction is becoming science fact and expresses his excitement at the prospect of the system being used to shoot down Russian drones and missiles.
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Zelensky Interview: Zelensky responds to Donald Trump's claims that he could stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours
🎦 30:48-38:10⏩
Jonathan plays a clip of a recent interview between Zelensky and Matt Frei for Channel 4 News in which Zelensky was asked about Trump's claim that he could stop the war in 24 hours if he was president: Matt Frei: "One person I've interviewed some time ago who thinks he's a very tough guy and who always says he hates losers is Donald J. Trump, who could be the next American president. Now, we know that Donald Trump has said, 'When I'm president, this war is over in 24 hours.' If you could say to him directly, what would you say to him in English about his proposition of ending this war?" Zelensky: "Vladimir Putin, I think I had possibility to give them a message. I think maybe maybe I don't know if his message will have such positive result as he said because it's a bluster yeah it can be just you know political message and that's it and my attitude to this the same because if it's political message I don't afraid yeah I understand election period I stand difficulties come complicated period for the United States and so if it's messages okay it's politics it's politics yes but if it's some formula I have to know it." Matt Frei: "Sure. Have you spoken to him?" Zelensky: "No, no, I didn't speak with him, but I mean, before the war, yes, I had a visit to the United States. We had dialogue with him and with his team, yes, yes, but we never spoke about it. I mean, it's global with details. But the period was another, but mean, this globe with details. But the period was another. But anyway, we've been occupied." Matt Frei: "Would you invite him to Kyiv to come and visit?" Zelensky: "With pleasure. With pleasure." Matt Frei: "Invite him now. Invite him on our program." Zelensky: "Yes, please. Donald Trump, I invite you to Ukraine, to Kyiv. So if you can stop the war during 24 hours, I think it will be enough to come to Kiev. All right. In any day, I mean." Matt Frei: "We'll make sure that he gets the message." Zelensky: "I'll make sure he comes. I mean that, who knows? Yes. For example, maybe Donald Trump really has some idea, a real idea, and he can share it with me. And I think it's okay because it's I mean that I can't we can't have a secret with our people how to stop the war." Jonathan notes Zelensky's scepticism about Trump's claims, suggesting it is bluster and electioneering. Jonathan agrees with Zelensky's point that if Trump does have a "secret formula" then he needs to share it.
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Zelensky Interview: Zelensky quizzed about Republicans who are now less supportive of funding Ukraine
🎦 38:10-39:05⏩
Jonathan plays another clip of the Channel 4 interview: Matt Frei: "We'll find out apart from Donald Trump there are many Republicans again also facing election in Washington who now saying Ukrainian money not so fast and I know you spoke to them just a few weeks ago you were in Washington yeah you were very persuasive and even after that they said stop for now does that worry you" Zelensky: "I'm worried only because because our people and our budget and we have a gap financial gap because of the war and I'm not worrying about there with all respect about the congressman's or senators I mean that I had meeting with them when I sit with them in any case, but literally we have dialogue, tete-a-tete or in team. Mostly, mostly, 99.9% they are on my side." Matt Frei: "Of course." Zelensky: "Yes." Matt Frei: "To your face." Zelensky: "To my face." Matt Frei: "Do you trust them? Do you think that they are nice to your face and they say, we support you, and then behind your back?" Zelensky: "I trust results. I trust results. Before this, we couldn't really survive without US help, US support. It's real fact. And that's why, of course, I trust, mostly I trust. And I count on them today. It's true. And I can't, you know, even during, I mean, my five years, almost five years, my presidency and during this war, I saw from one side, I saw everything. But when I speak with politicians, sometimes I think that I saw nothing." Matt Frei: "Yes, because..." Zelensky: "Give me an example." Matt Frei: "Everybody's smiling. Everybody's laughing. Everybody's crying, hating you, saying that you're resilient. You are so strong. You are the man. You're the leader of the free world. You save our democracy. If Ukrainian people didn't have such president, if such president didn't have such Ukrainian people, we could lose the half of Europe, and Russia will attack United States and NATO countries, and we have to give you everything." Matt Frei: "And then?" Zelensky: "Everything we have." Matt Frei: "And then, like, cut. Helmets" Zelensky: "And then, like, cut. Helmets. And then, yes. Not only helmets. They helped a lot, really. Yes, they have. Recently, yes. But not... They helped a lot to stay." Matt Frei: "Right." Zelensky: "And they, I think, they could help us more to win." Jonathan doesn't provide any commentary initially but picks up after the clip with a comment about how Zelensky believes that Ukraine would have struggled to survive without US help. Jonathan agrees with Zelensky's assessment that the US could be doing more to help Ukraine win.
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Biden Administration: Biden tells congressional leaders that reducing aid to Ukraine risks a spillover of the war into NATO countries, which would result in US troops being forced to directly engage Russia
🎦 39:05-40:04⏩
Jonathan discusses a CNN report that Biden has been warning congressional leaders that a reduction in military aid to Ukraine increases the chances of the conflict spilling over into neighbouring NATO countries. Biden is reported to have told the meeting that this would force US troops to directly engage Russia. Jonathan argues that this is a risk that the US has been aware of since the start of the conflict and reinforces the need to prevent Russia from being victorious. He states that the current situation (where the US can engage in a proxy war against Russia) is the best outcome for the US. Jonathan expresses his disbelief that anyone is against providing aid given how much the US has invested in fighting the USSR/Russia. He reminds viewers that the US is achieving this for less than 5% of the budget without losing a single US soldier.
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European Union: European Union starts discussion on a new sanctions package against Russia to be approved by 24th February 2024
🎦 40:04-40:11⏩
Jonathan reports that discussions are underway between EU members about new sanctions against Russia, with the aim to have them agreed by the 24th February 2024, which is the two year anniversary of the start of the conflict.
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G7: UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt reveals that sanctions against Russia are always at the top of the agenda at G7 meetings
🎦 40:11-40:38⏩
Jonathan reports that UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said that sanctions against Russia are always at the top of the agenda at G7 meetings, demonstrating how seriously the issue is being taken.
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European Union: European Parliament votes to condemn Hungary's attempts to undermine the EU and calls for Hungary to be stripped of its voting rights at the European Council
🎦 40:39-42:26⏩
Jonathan reports that the European Parliament has voted to condemn Hungary for attempting to undermine the founding values of the EU and called for the country to be stripped of its voting rights. This follows a decision by Viktor Orban last month to block a 50 billion Euro aid package to Ukraine. Jonathan welcomes the development, having called for Hungary to be held to account previously. However, he expresses some reservations, pointing out that expelling Hungary from the EU risks pushing the country further into the sphere of influence of Russia. Jonathan draws parallels with Turkey, arguing that a difficult partner within the EU/NATO is better than pushing them away and closer to the sphere of influence of Russia and China.
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Italy: Former Italian Navy officer sentenced to 20 years for spying for Russia
🎦 42:28-42:41⏩
Jonathan reports that a former Italian Navy officer, Frigate Captain Walter Biot, has been sentenced to 20 years in prison after being found guilty of spying for Russia in March 2021.
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Ukraine: Ukraine ranks as the third largest supplier of agricultural produce to the EU
🎦 42:45-44:23⏩
Jonathan discusses the news that Ukraine is the third largest supplier of agricultural produce to the EU. He highlights that this is despite the ongoing Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea and demonstrates the success of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.
- Jonathan praises the role of the UK government, and insurers, in getting the initiative up and running and in persuading other countries to sign up. Jonathan notes that Zelensky praised the UK's intelligence sharing in the Channel 4 interview, something he believes doesn't get talked about enough. Jonathan argues that the provision of intelligence is one of the most valuable contributions that countries can provide.
Wrap up
🎦 44:23-44:42⏩
Jonathan runs out of time and says that he will do an "Extra" video about the economic prospects for Russia. He signs off and thanks viewers for watching.
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