Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"The russian land is full of idiots"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:19⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the daily update. Jonathan mentions he is on holiday but will be making a start on today's video.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:19-03:33⏩
Jonathan provides his analysis of the daily General Staff figures for Russian losses on the 11th of August 2024 and covers the following points:
- Jonathan highlights interesting figures and places them in context - 1080 personnel losses are lower than in recent days given fighting in Kursk
- Jonathan's opinion that recent figures may be lower because resources have been moved from other areas of the front line to Kursk.
- Despite recent Ukrainian advances, Russia is still making gains in places like Turetsk
- Jonathan's analysis that high artillery losses (65) indicate that Ukraine is continuing to degrade Russian artillery.
- Three MLRS were destroyed.
- No aircraft or helicopters were shot down.
Oryx Losses - Ukraine and Russia 11/08/2024
🎦 03:07-07:15⏩
Jonathan analyses visually confirmed losses for 11/08/2024 from Oryx Ukraine Jonathan highlights the following points from the Oryx visually confirmed losses:
- Significant Ukrainian losses are expected given their offensive operations in Kursk.
- A Ukrainian Zuzana 2 self propelled Howitzer was destroyed. Jonathan notes this is a significant loss - it's a decent bit of kit.
- One T-64 tank destroyed
- One Marder IFV damaged - later recovered
- Lots of different types of APCs destroyed - approximately 50 in total.
- Jonathan reminds viewers that although this equipment is valuable, these losses are not critical and to be expected.
Russia
- A Russian T-80BVM tank (2022) was captured
- A Russian T-90M was damaged
- High number of Russian APC losses - around 90%.
Jonathan concludes by observing:
- The Russians would be slightly worse off, given the combat losses and the percentage that are damaged - the ratio that are damaged and destroyed against what the Ukrainians have puts the Ukrainians in a slightly better position
- This is fairly typical of a side of Ukraine that is starting to attack a little bit more, certainly in one area.
Russian POWs
🎦 07:15-09:42⏩
Jonathan discusses a comment by a Youtube User (Thomas Tyner) who suggests that:
- The high numbers of Russian POWs (who are young conscripts rather than volunteers) might start to turn Russian public opinion against the war.
- This is because families will become more anti-war when it is their sons/family members who are captured rather than older volunteers.
Jonathan agrees with Thomas and elaborates on this:
- Jonathan highlights a theory he has heard that 25% of the Russian population are pro-war and 25% are anti-war (although many have left or remain quiet) but the remaining 50% sit on the fence and are ambivalent.
- He thinks the high number of young conscripts being taken prisoner may be the catalyst that turns public opinion against the war - that 50% may become activated.
HIMARS Strike on Russian Convoy in Rilsk (Kursk Oblast)
🎦 09:42-13:29⏩
Jonathan discusses a HIMARS strike on a Russian Convoy in Rilsk, Kursk Oblast:
- The attack took place on the 8th of August and is thought to have killed many soldiers. Some reports suggest 100, others 490. Jonathan believes the true figure is likely to be somewhere in between.
- He notes that if true, this will be one of the single biggest losses of Russian life since the start of the war (the other was a strike on a school being used to billet soldiers which may have killed up to 600).
- Jonathan highlights the reaction of Russian milbloggers who have been very critical of the Russian military for their incompetence for allowing such a large target to be hit - describing it as "trash" and calling for the commander in charge to be demoted or executed and sent to the front.
- Jonathan notes how one milblogger (Oleg Sarov) was shocked that this could happen in the third year of the war.
Ukrainian BTR-4 Captured by Russia?
🎦 13:29-14:55⏩
There was a lot of discussion on social media about whether a Ukrainian BTR-4 had been captured by Russian forces.
- The vehicle was spotted in the village of Giri.
- Initially people thought this was evidence of a Ukrainian advance - that they had captured the village.
- It now appears that the BTR-4 was a captured vehicle.
Jonathan highlights a theory that:
- The vehicle was captured by Akhmat forces who ambushed the Ukrainians.
However, Jonathan notes:
- There is evidence to suggest that the vehicle was found abandoned rather than captured.
US Stryker Damaged in Kursk Oblast
🎦 14:55-15:33⏩
A US-supplied Stryker was damaged in Kursk Oblast.
- It was hit by an RPG.
- The crew survived thanks to the Stryker's armour.
- The driver has a concussion.
- The vehicle will be sent back to Germany for repairs.
Jonathan notes:
- This highlights how survivable western equipment is.
Russian Logistics - Train and Grain Warehouse
🎦 15:33-16:28⏩
Jonathan provides an update about Russian logistical issues:
- Russian partisans blew up a locomotive in Vologda Oblast, Northern Moscow.
- A huge fire has engulfed a grain warehouse. The fire is thought to have been started by an electrical fault, not a Ukrainian strike. Jonathan notes how flammable grain and grain dust are.
Distant Strikes
🎦 16:28-19:14⏩
Jonathan summarises overnight strikes: Russia
- Russia claimed to have hit Martynivska airfield in Mykolaiv Oblast overnight using ballistic missiles but there were no reports of explosions.
- Russia also claims to have destroyed a warehouse containing long-range missiles near Voznesensk.
Ukraine
- Drones attacked Shelyakov near Moscow.
- Russian sources claimed 18 drones were shot down over Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh Oblasts. However, no mention was made of any drone activity in the Moscow Oblast, which Jonathan notes is interesting as it was caught on camera.
- A report by Tim White suggests that drones were seen over Chkalovsky airbase for several hours and that several explosions were heard.
- Jonathan notes that this is not the first time Ukraine has targeted Chkalovsky airbase and shows a picture of smoke rising after an attack 11 months previously.
- Jonathan warns about disinformation - people are using old pictures and claiming they are from today.
Fire at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
🎦 19:18-20:38⏩
Jonathan discusses a fire at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant:
- A large plume of black smoke was seen rising from the plant.
- Ukrainian sources say that Russia set fire to a pile of tyres to create panic.
- Zelensky confirmed the fire but said that radiation levels were normal.
Attack on Kimburn Spit?
🎦 20:38-22:15⏩
Jonathan discusses what may be another attack on Kimburn Spit:
- Jonathan uses a map to show the location of the spit which is strategically important as it controls access to the Dnipro River and the port city of Ochakiv.
- Ukraine attacked Kimburn Spit two nights ago - it is unclear whether this is a second attack or whether reports are referring to the same one.
- Footage has emerged of a Ukrainian flag being raised on the spit.
Jonathan concludes:
- Regular attacks on Kimburn Spit could indicate Ukraine is planning an invasion rather than carrying out raids.
Russian Disinformation
🎦 22:15-23:05⏩
Jonathan provides an example of Russian disinformation:
- Russia has been using old video footage and claiming it is from recent fighting to try and convince people they are repelling Ukrainian attacks in Kursk.
- OSINT researchers have been quick to debunk these videos.
Ukrainian Activity in Belgorod
🎦 23:05-24:37⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of fighting around Kolotilovka in Belgorod:
- There are reports that Russian forces are engaging a Ukrainian tank and small assault groups.
- Russian forces claim to have brought up reserves to deal with the attack.
Jonathan notes:
- It is unclear whether these are deep reconnaissance patrols or the start of a major offensive.
Ukrainian Jets in Kursk
🎦 24:37-25:19⏩
- Ukrainian Su-27s have been spotted in Kursk Oblast.
Jonathan notes:
- It will be incredibly embarrassing for Russia if Ukraine can operate freely in Russian airspace.
Wrap up
🎦 25:19-25:29⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and says there will be a short follow up video about the situation in Kursk.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I am unclear about the following from the transcript:
What is a "nota" system (timestamp 04:01)?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This video focuses on losses sustained by both sides on the 11th of August 2024. I will need to pay close attention to Ukrainian place names and spellings to ensure I'm using the correct ones.
The main points to summarise are:
A comparison of daily losses from both sides - Oryx and General Staff figures with commentary and analysis.
Mention there will be a separate Kursk update
Russian POWs - there are a lot of them and Jonathan's theory about how this will impact russian public opinion about the war
HIMARS strike in Rilsk
Discussion about Russian disinformation - use of old video footage to try and show successes in Kursk
Ukrainian activity in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts
Possible Ukrainian Drone attack on Chkalovsky airbase near Moscow
Fire at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant
Possible Ukrainian attack on Kimburn Spit
