Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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Table of Contents 📖
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"This really annoys me. Like, that statement is so obviously hypocritical. So obviously double standards."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war news for April 2nd, 2023. He notes that critics say the Ukrainian figures on Russian losses are inaccurate propaganda, but he believes they are more accurate than the Russian figures. The lower figures in recent days reflect a culmination of the Russian winter offensive and difficult weather conditions.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses and Offensive
- Ukraine's Ministry of Finance reported that in March, the armed forces destroyed 24,100 Russian soldiers, a record monthly loss since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
- The trend shows that Russian losses have increased significantly over the past 7 months, with the last 3 months being particularly bad.
- Russia has been using thermobaric artillery and causing widespread damage.
- Ukrainian Tochka-U missiles struck a building in the Azovstal plant north of Bakhmut, likely killing many Wagner PMC contractors. A nearby bridge was also hit, disrupting Russian transportation.
Hits and Shelling
- Explosions were reported in Russian-occupied Melitopol, possibly from Ukrainian HIMARS strikes. The railway depot was likely hit.
- Rostov-on-Don, just across the Russian border, was hit by Ukrainian drones or missiles.
- At least three people died and six were injured during Russian shelling of Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region. Avdiivka's administration building was also hit.
- The Russians continue to indiscriminately shell civilian areas across Ukraine, causing destruction but not necessarily military casualties.
Analysis of Russian Artillery Use
Jonathan argues against pro-Russian claims that because Russia is using more artillery, they should have lower casualties than Ukraine. He notes several factors: 1) Ukraine uses more precision rounds like Excalibur, allowing for targeted strikes 2) Russian artillery use is more indiscriminate, hitting civilian areas 3) Russians have been on the offensive, exposing their troops more 4) Ukrainians are defending from fortified positions So while artillery causes the most casualties on both sides, Ukraine's precise, defensive use is more effective than Russia's indiscriminate offensive barrages.
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Odds and Ends
- UK Defence Intelligence "trolled" Russia, highlighting alcohol abuse as a leading cause of Russian non-combat casualties.
- The ISW says Russia's winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin's goal of seizing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions' administrative borders by March 31st. Russian mil-bloggers fret about Ukrainian counteroffensives.
- Criticism of the war is growing among Russian nationalist military bloggers like Igor Girkin.
- Russians are cutting down forests in occupied areas in a "scorched earth" campaign.
- The number of Russian missile carriers in the Black Sea has increased from 3 to 12, with a possible Kalibr missile launch coming.
Geopolitics
- At a Moldovan football match, fans showed a banner criticizing Russia's actions in Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine.
- Russia has murdered 262 Ukrainian athletes and destroyed 363 sports facilities, which may impact bans on Russia and Belarus from sporting events.
- Armenia stated it ratified the Rome Statute to address Azerbaijan's aggression, not to arrest Putin, exhibiting hypocritical double standards according to Jonathan.
- Leaked Twitter code revealed Elon Musk's tweets get amplified and that the platform suppresses Ukraine news as "misinformation", which Jonathan strongly disagrees with.
- Finland has frozen the assets of the Russian scientific and cultural centre as it moves towards NATO membership.
Wrap Up
Jonathan thanks his supporters on Buy Me a Coffee, PayPal, and channel members. He will post a pre-recorded extra video next, followed by a frontline update later in the day.
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