Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"Another war crime, just to remind you who we are dealing with and what the Russians appear to be like."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel, explaining that this Frontline Update is a day later than usual due to a rare philosophical and political discussion with friends at the pub.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Frontline Overview (Kupyansk - Svatove - Kreminna)
🎦 00:28-01:25⏩
Jonathan notes that there are no changes to most of the northeastern frontline, which is positive news for Ukraine. He then highlights potential Ukrainian advances near Terny and Torske, west of Kreminna, based on pro-Russian maps from Rybar. However, he cautions that these reports should be viewed with some scepticism as they could represent troop repositioning rather than genuine Ukrainian gains.
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Bakhmut Frontline Update (Ivanivske - Chasiv Yar - Bohdanivka)
🎦 01:25-11:11⏩
Jonathan observes significant changes in the Bakhmut area, particularly around Ivanivske and up towards Bohdanivka. He notes Russian gains into the first houses of Chasiv Yar, which is a concerning development. Jonathan discusses Russian tactics, drawing on insights from military analysts like Andrew Perpetua. He explains that the Russians seem to be using their vehicles as "taxis" to transport large numbers of troops to strategic wooded areas, from which they can engage in attritional warfare. This strategy is costly in terms of equipment and manpower, but it allows the Russians to inflict casualties on Ukrainian forces while minimizing their own losses. Jonathan analyses the situation in Ivanivske, noting the heavy fighting and the destruction of Russian equipment, despite their advances. He also highlights the challenges faced by Russian troops due to the difficult terrain and Ukrainian artillery fire. He cites Andrew Perpetua's map to illustrate the intensity of the fighting along the road to Chasiv Yar, pointing out the constant shelling and assaults. The overall picture in the Bakhmut sector is one of intense fighting and gradual Russian gains, achieved through a costly but effective strategy of attrition.
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Avdiivka Salient Update (Semenivka - Berdychi - Pervomaiske)
🎦 11:11-14:57⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the Avdiivka salient, where he notes Russian gains reported by Rybar, but not as substantial as in other areas. He uses both Rybar's and Deepstate's maps to illustrate Russian advances near Semenivka and Berdychi, emphasizing the potential threat of Russian forces crossing the river in this sector. He also points out the heavy fighting around Pervomaiske and Vodiane as the Russians attempt to advance in this area. Jonathan analyses Rybar's reports, noting that their admission of heavy Russian casualties likely indicates a significant Ukrainian resistance. He speculates that while the river line offers a natural defensive position, the Ukrainians may have stronger fortifications established further back towards Prokovsk. He concludes that the situation in the Avdiivka salient remains fluid but is less concerning than the fighting around Chasiv Yar and Novo-Mykhailivka.
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Krasnohorivka and Novo-Mykhailivka Analysis
🎦 14:57-19:34⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation in Krasnohorivka, suggesting that Ukrainian successes in pushing back Russian forces may be due to inaccurate initial reporting. He speculates that Russian advances in the area were likely repelled, leading to a retreat and subsequent shelling of Ukrainian positions. Jonathan highlights the strategic importance of Novo-Mykhailivka, suggesting that a Russian breakthrough in this area would pose a significant threat to Ukrainian defenses further south, particularly along the road to Vuhledar. He expresses concern over the sustainability of Ukrainian defenses in Novo-Mykhailivka given the ongoing Russian pressure.
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Velyka Novosilka Salient Update (Staromaiorske - Robotyne)
🎦 19:34-19:52⏩
Moving to the Velyka Novosilka salient, Jonathan observes minor Ukrainian gains southwest of Staromaiorske according to Deepstate's map, while Rybar reports slight Russian advances near Robotyne, north of Vuhledar. He concludes by mentioning reports and footage of Russian war crimes being committed against captured Ukrainian POWs. He emphasizes the brutality of the Russian forces and reminds his viewers of the gravity of the situation.
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Concluding Remarks and Summary of Frontline Changes
🎦 19:52-21:33⏩
Jonathan summarises the overall frontline situation, characterizing it as a "mixed bag" with both positive and negative developments for Ukraine. He reiterates his concerns about Chasiv Yar and Novo-Mykhailivka, predicting the eventual fall of the former but expressing uncertainty about the timing and manner. Despite ongoing Russian pressure in Avdiivka, he seems less worried about that sector. Jonathan concludes by thanking his viewers and reminding them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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Wrap up
🎦 21:33-21:36⏩
Jonathan signs off with his signature "Toodlepip!"
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