Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If they lift sanctions, that will be absolutely criminal."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:25⏩
Jonathan starts the video with a humorous anecdote about his son Finn's football match, expressing his disbelief at a missed penalty call. He mentions it's the first part of the Ukraine War update for 16th November 2024 and apologises for the late start due to the match.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 01:20-02:48⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian general staff's figures for Russian losses from the previous day, emphasising the figures are estimates. He notes:
- Personnel: 1,650 (exceptionally high).
- Tanks: 8 (average).
- Troop-carrying AFVs: 26 (above average).
- Artillery Systems: 28 (above average).
- Vehicles and fuel tanks: 69 (high).
- Special equipment: 6.
Jonathan finds the high personnel loss staggering, highlighting the rising trend of losses over the weeks and months. He acknowledges the difficulty in quantifying these figures due to constantly shifting baselines.
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Visual Confirmation of Losses and Impact on Russia
🎦 02:48-04:23⏩
Jonathan references data from Andrew Perpetua, who is significantly backlogged with visually confirming military equipment losses. He underscores the unprecedented scale of losses, particularly for the Russians, noting the impact this is having. Jonathan reads a comment from 'Ward translated to Dmitry' about a 48-year-old Russian serviceman, with no prior military experience, who died in a 'meat assault' just 12 days after enlisting. This highlights Russia's possible desperation for manpower and lack of training for new recruits.
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Russian Public Sentiment and Military Leadership
🎦 04:23-05:31⏩
Jonathan reads a poignant message from a Russian citizen questioning the handling of the war and lamenting the loss of life, particularly the 48-year-old soldier. The citizen criticises the lack of accountability for incompetent military commanders who send soldiers into battle unprepared, leading to heavy casualties.
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Ukrainian Ambush of Russian Troops in Kharkiv
🎦 05:31-06:35⏩
Jonathan mentions a video on Blue Sky, shared by War Translated, showing a successful Ukrainian ambush of Russian troops in the Kharkiv region. He describes the footage as "staggering" due to the high number of Russian casualties. He questions the location of the ambush within the Kharkiv region.
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Ukrainian Destruction of Russian Military Equipment
🎦 06:35-08:18⏩
Jonathan reports on several Ukrainian successes:
- Destruction of a Russian Buk-M1 surface-to-air missile system, valued at up to $100 million.
- Two Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) taken out by a single HIMARS strike.
- Destruction of two Ural trucks and a BTR carrying Russian troops in the Kursk region by the Ukrainian 95th Air Assault Brigade.
He expresses concern about Ukraine's ability to hold onto Kursk, especially if Russia continues to deploy large numbers of troops.
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Drone Warfare and Air Defences
🎦 08:18-11:19⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing drone warfare:
- Ukrainian Air Force shot down 53 out of 83 Shahid drones launched by Russia, attributing the remaining 30 losses to electronic warfare.
- Russia is deploying Shahid drones equipped with advanced satellite navigation (RTK-GNSS) to counter Ukrainian jamming and spoofing efforts.
- He shows footage of intense anti-aircraft fire over Odessa, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences.
- Zaporizhzhia was repeatedly attacked, with damage to critical infrastructure and residential buildings.
- Zelensky acknowledges the ongoing attacks and asserts that Ukraine is prepared for winter, claiming they are in a stronger position than ever regarding air defences and missiles.
- Jonathan notes this is the first time Zelensky has made such a claim, expressing caution as success rates against ballistic missiles remain a concern.
- He mentions unconfirmed reports of explosions near Yevpatoria in Crimea.
Negotiation Stance: Russia, US & Ukraine
🎦 11:36-15:53⏩
Jonathan discusses the potential for negotiations:
- The Washington Post reports that Russia refuses to negotiate until it retakes Kursk, highlighting its strategic importance as a bargaining chip.
- Putin states any deal must reflect the "realities on the ground," implying territorial concessions from Ukraine. Jonathan interprets this as Russia aiming to frame any deal in its favour.
- He expresses concern about the incoming Trump administration's stance on negotiations, criticising their willingness to concede territory to Russia.
- Zelensky outlines his prerequisites for negotiations, including Ukraine maintaining its strength and international support, continued recognition of Russia as the aggressor and ensuring any peace deal is just.
- Jonathan contrasts Zelensky's stance with the incoming US administration's lack of focus on a "just peace."
Impact of Sanctions on Russian Economy
🎦 15:53-19:01⏩
Jonathan shifts to the economic front:
- Reuters reports that at least three Russian refineries have halted or reduced production due to financial pressures from export restrictions, rising crude prices and high borrowing costs.
- The affected refineries are Tuapse, Ilski and Nowoszewski.
- Jonathan emphasises the importance of maintaining economic pressure on Russia through sanctions, expressing concern that the incoming US administration might lift them, which he considers "criminal."
- He discusses the theory that Trump might allow Russia to increase oil production to lower global oil prices, potentially undermining the effectiveness of sanctions.
- Jonathan concludes by acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future negotiations.
Wrap up
🎦 19:01-19:07⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support, encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He signs off and says he will speak to them soon.
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