Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

"Ukraine is now lacking air defense, Russians are just destroying the country's power grid to force a majority of the population into Europe, massacre those that remain and then call it Russia."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to another Ukraine War news update - the first part for the 3rd April 2024. He's going to start in the usual place, with Ukrainian General Staff figures for the previous day (2nd April 2024). As always, the usual caveats apply, and these can be found in the video description below.

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Russian Daily Losses (2nd April 2024)

🎦 00:14-03:30⏩

Jonathan reports that personnel losses are similar to the previous 4 or 5 days, with 710 Russian personnel reportedly killed. This is around average, and less than the 1000+ reported killed on many days previously. Equipment losses are significant, although not record-breaking:

• 11 Tanks
• 18 APVs
• 30 Artillery Systems
• 2 MLRS
• 1 Anti-aircraft warfare system
• 30 Vehicles and Fuel Tanks
• 6 Pieces of special equipment

Jonathan notes that, whilst not record-breaking, this level of attrition will hurt the Russians. He believes that this is because there are specific areas of the front line which are extremely active (Novomykhailivka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and possibly Terny/Torske), but other areas are relatively static. He believes that the high number of vehicle losses, but not necessarily the same number of personnel losses, is because there have been no major assaults in recent days, and vehicles such as IFVs and Tanks are often disabled by mines, with crews often able to escape. This differs from attacks by Javelins or drones, which often destroy the vehicle and crew.

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Impact of War on Russian Society

🎦 03:30-05:07⏩

Jonathan cites a report by the UK Defence Ministry which states that, two years into the war, there has been a 30% increase in disabilities amongst Russian men aged 31-59 since 2023. He reasons that if this is a 30% increase in the year 2024 on the year 2023, then there will have been a similar increase in 2023 compared to 2022, and so on, meaning there must have been huge increase in disabilities, no doubt attributable to the war. Jonathan considers this data point in the context of trying to understand the veracity of the daily casualty figures reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, and concludes that, whilst the exact numbers may be unreliable, by looking at other data points, including those relating to disabilities, there's no doubt that the war is costing the Russians dear in terms of personnel.

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March 2024 - A record month for Russian Vehicle Losses

🎦 05:07-10:00⏩

Jonathan talks about Russian vehicle losses, and cites analysis by Richard Vareka of Warspotting who states that Russia has visually confirmed losses of 262 IFVs in March 2024 alone - this is more than any of the previous 17 months, making it the highest month of losses for this category of vehicle. Jonathan goes on to explain that the ratio of Russian tank losses to Russian IFV losses has historically been around 1:1.85 (for every one tank lost, 1.85 IFVs were lost). However, this ratio has increased dramatically in March 2024 to 1:3.2. Jonathan is unsure why this is, but speculates that it's related to the large, failed Russian attack two days previously, when around 30 Russian tanks and 12 IFVs were destroyed. He also notes that Andrew Perpetua has observed that most Russian attacks are now conducted by small units of 2-3 vehicles (a couple of IFVs and perhaps a tank), and it is more unusual to see larger attacks. Jonathan cites a tweet by War Monitor which states that Ukrainian brigades defending Novomykhailivka in March 2024 claimed to have destroyed 32 tanks and 43 armoured vehicles - almost the inverse of the overall trend. However, in order to explain the data showing higher IFV losses, there must have been areas where IFVs losses were particularly high. Jonathan goes on to talk about how Andrew Perpetua has been looking at low resolution satellite imagery of areas just north of Novomykhailivka which appear to show large numbers of destroyed vehicles. He is trying to raise funds ($400) to be able to afford some high-resolution imagery to be able to properly assess the imagery and identify the vehicle types. Jonathan encourages viewers to support this if they can, as data is really important in understanding the war. Jonathan highlights how costly this area has been for the Russians, comparing it to losses sustained in the area around Tonenko.

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Drone Warfare - Developments and Observations

🎦 10:00-13:27⏩

Jonathan highlights a video showing a Ukrainian "Ratel S" unmanned ground vehicle (UGV), which is essentially a remote-controlled kamikaze drone, being used to target a bridge near Bakhmut. He notes that this bridge was already damaged, and the drone drives into a pre-existing hole and explodes, causing further damage. He then goes on to talk about the increasing use of drones in the conflict, referencing a post by Andrew Perpetua which highlights how drones are being used by both sides, often in larger numbers and equipped with a variety of munitions including tear gas, thermobaric, incendiary, and high explosive. He provides a hypothetical scenario of how a trench could be attacked by a drone equipped with tear gas, forcing the occupants to either stay put and be incinerated by thermobaric weapons, or flee the trench and be attacked in the open by drones equipped with high explosives.

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Miscellaneous Overnight News

🎦 13:27-14:05⏩

Jonathan mentions a train derailment in Moscow, with 10 wagons reported to have tipped over. He references a Tweet by Tim White which attributes the derailment to a bank being washed away, causing the rails to slip. However, he notes that there doesn't seem to be any evidence of this in the imagery. There are no reports of fires in Russia overnight.

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Distance Munitions - Ukrainian Defence and Russian Stockpiles

🎦 14:05-15:40⏩

Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians continue to be successful at shooting down Russian drones, but less so with missiles. He states that, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has around 950 high-precision missiles with a range in excess of 350km. This is more than the 750 reported yesterday, but Jonathan cautions that it depends on what is included in the totals, as different reports include different missile types, including whether surface-to-air missiles such as the S300, are included. However, Jonathan believes that, irrespective of the exact numbers, 950 missiles is not a lot. This is not enough to conduct multiple campaigns at the same time, so by concentrating their resources on Ukraine, they are leaving themselves unable to fight any other wars. By way of example, Jonathan states that, should Poland go to war with Russia (nukes aside), Poland would win.

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Dnipro Missile Attack

🎦 15:40-16:50⏩

Jonathan cites a tweet from Jane K which shows the aftermath of a missile strike in Dnipro. He reports that it appears that the Russians targeted a school, but luckily all the children had run to the bomb shelter and there were only 5 casualties. He condemns the attack, which appears to have been conducted with ballistic missiles, in the middle of the school day, and asks whether Russians are even human. Jonathan states that this is what war looks like when it is prosecuted unfairly, by an aggressive nation who has no consideration for human life. He reiterates that this is why he continues to make his daily videos about the war.

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Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure

🎦 16:50-17:25⏩

Jonathan shows footage of a Ukrainian thermal power station that has been destroyed by a Russian missile attack. He states that the Russians are now targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, having exhausted many of their other options, and notes that this control room which was previously responsible for providing electricity to 700,000 people is now in ruins. Jonathan believes that the Russians are deliberately trying to make Ukraine ungovernable and force the population into Europe, leaving them free to massacre those that remain before claiming the territory for themselves.

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Analysis of Drone used in Attack on Russian Oil Refinery

🎦 17:25-19:18⏩

Jonathan talks about the wreckage of the drone recovered from the attack on the Tatarstan oil refinery. It appears to be a UJ-22, but this has raised a number of questions, as the standard UJ-22 drone has a range of 800km, but the refinery is over 1,200km from Ukraine. Jonathan notes that it has been suggested that the drone was modified to extend its range, or that it was not a UJ-22 at all, but an aircraft which had been modified to be flown as a drone. The UJ-22 is a versatile drone, capable of autonomous and remote operation. It has a range of up to 800km, is equipped with advanced sensors, cameras and communication systems and can be used for a variety of military, intelligence, search and rescue operations. It can carry a variety of payloads, including munitions.

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Iskander Missile Disposal

🎦 19:18-19:57⏩

Jonathan shows footage of an unexploded Iskander missile being disposed of, and draws attention to the size of the crater, highlighting the damage that these missiles cause when they explode in cities.

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Explosions in Kursk

🎦 19:57-20:05⏩

Footage has emerged of something exploding in Kursk. It is not clear what it was that was hit, but Jonathan suggests that it may have been an ammunition depot, as there are a number of secondary explosions.

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President Zelensky's Comments on Russian Missile and Drone attacks

🎦 20:05-21:54⏩

Jonathan refers to a statement made by President Zelensky in which he states that during March, the Russians used over 400 missiles of various types, 600 Shahed drones, and 3,000 guided aerial bombs. Jonathan is particularly concerned by the use of guided glide bombs, as there appears to be little the Ukrainians can do to defend against them other than deploy Patriot systems to the front line to shoot down the launching aircraft. However, this brings with it the risk of these systems being damaged in return. President Zelensky notes how these attacks are terrorising the population and causing untold damage to the country's infrastructure. He goes on to state that the city of Kharkiv has been subjected to daily attacks since the war began, and this has recently included the use of aerial bombs. Jonathan mentions that he will be interviewing Anastasia Parafinovich-Holota at 5pm UK time. He was due to speak with her a couple of weeks ago, but this was postponed due to Kharkiv being hit particularly badly, resulting in power outages. President Zelensky goes on to say that none of this would be possible if Ukraine had sufficient air defence systems, highlighting the importance of these systems in being able to protect Ukrainian cities. Jonathan picks up on President Zelensky's use of the word "reliable", speculating that perhaps he means that some of the older systems are less reliable than the more modern systems. President Zelensky concludes by stating that the provision of Patriot systems demonstrates that "all forms of Russian terror can be defeated" - this is clearly what he wants.

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France Supports Ukrainian strikes on Russian Oil Refineries

🎦 21:54-28:44⏩

Jonathan talks about a statement made by French Foreign Minister, Stéphane Solgione, in which he stated that France supports Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries, and considers them to be legitimate defence. This is in direct contrast to the US position, as stated by US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, who said that the US does not support or assist with Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. Jonathan discusses the US position with reference to a recent interview he did with Jonathan Fink on the Silicon Curtain channel. He reiterates his view that, from an economic perspective, the US does not want the price of oil to increase, which could happen if Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries impact on global supply, especially in the run up to the 2024 Presidential elections. Jonathan notes how Mr Fink has spoken with a number of influential people to try to understand the US position, and the consensus seems to be that, whilst economics may play a part, the main reason the US are reluctant to support Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory is escalation management - they are worried that this could result in Russia retaliating with tactical nuclear weapons. Jonathan questions this, suggesting that the US are over-estimating the threat from Russia and that the so-called "red lines" do not exist. He believes that the US could be doing much more to support Ukraine, for example, by providing F-16 fighter jets, but the Biden administration are being too cautious. He cites examples from the Cold War, when the US repeatedly over-estimated the Russian threat and were too concerned about escalation management, even when it turned out that the US had more nuclear weapons than Russia. He encourages viewers to watch "Turning Point", a Netflix documentary series about the Cold War. Jonathan believes that the current US administration, and individuals such as Jake Sullivan, are misreading the situation in Ukraine. He argues that the Russians have not responded to previous escalations in the way that many predicted - for example, the provision of M777 Howitzers, HIMARS, and other weapons systems - and there is no reason to believe that they would react any differently now. He concedes that allowing Ukraine to strike targets within Russia could embolden Putin to escalate, but that the only way Ukraine will be able to win the war is if they are given the means to do so.

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Sergey Naryshkin attempts to deflect blame for the Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack

🎦 28:44-30:27⏩

Jonathan reports that the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergey Naryshkin, has stated that intelligence provided by the US warning of a planned terrorist attack in Moscow was not sufficient to identify those responsible. Jonathan states that the Russians appear to be simultaneously admitting that their intelligence is poor and blaming the US for not giving them specific enough information to prevent the attack. He notes that this is despite the fact that the Iranians had also apparently warned them of the planned attack, IS have claimed responsibility for the attack and even produced a video, and the Russians have arrested a number of Tajiks who they accuse of funding IS. Jonathan concludes that this is all just propaganda designed for a domestic audience, and they don't believe any of it themselves.

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Ukraine plotting to attack the Kerch Strait Bridge

🎦 30:27-34:37⏩

Jonathan talks about an article published in The Guardian newspaper entitled "No Choice: Ukraine Eyes Kerch Bridge in Crimea for Drone Attack". He notes that it's widely expected that Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge again, and it is just a question of when and how. The article states that the Ukrainian HUR military intelligence service is plotting a third attempt to destroy the bridge, and believe that it's destruction is "inevitable". However, it's unclear how the Ukrainians will attack the bridge this time, as it has been heavily defended following the previous attack, with increased air defences, decoy targets, and sunken ships to prevent an underwater attack. A Ukrainian official is quoted in the article as saying that the attack will happen in the first half of 2024, and that the head of the HUR, Kyrylo Budanov, has approval from President Zelensky to do whatever is necessary to minimise the Russian naval presence in the Black Sea. The article goes on to state that the bridge is already out of action for heavy military equipment, which is having to be moved by road through Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Ukrainian officials believe that destroying the bridge would further hamper the Russian ability to conduct offensive operations. The article concludes by stating that President Zelensky has asked for Germany to provide Taurus cruise missiles, but that Chancellor Scholz has refused, believing that this would be viewed as a dangerous escalation. Jonathan examines the strategic situation in Crimea, and notes that the Russians are close to completing an alternative rail link to Crimea from Rostov-on-Don, through Taganrog, to Mariupol and Berdyansk. He speculates that the Ukrainians will likely target this as soon as it opens. Jonathan ends by quoting from a Ukrainian official in the article who uses a metaphor to describe the current situation: "we are attached to a drip. We have enough drugs to stay alive, but if the West wants us to win, we need the full treatment, he said, otherwise we fall down."

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Ukraine at risk of Front Line Collapse - Politico Article

🎦 34:37-41:15⏩

Jonathan talks about an article in Politico which states that Ukraine is at risk of a front-line collapse, and the coming Summer offensive will be decisive. The situation is described as "grim", with recent Russian attacks making it difficult to predict where a future offensive will occur. Anonymous Ukrainian military officials are quoted as saying that Russia is able to overwhelm Ukrainian defences through force of numbers and through the use of guided munitions, against which Ukraine has limited defences. Jonathan disputes this, arguing that, if the Ukrainians had enough Patriot air defence systems they would be able to prevent the Russian Air Force from operating and, by extension, from being able to deliver these munitions. The article goes on to state that, whilst the Ukrainians have been able to capitalise on Russian mistakes, relying on this as a strategy is not viable in the long term. The provision of Western equipment has often arrived too late, or in insufficient numbers, to be decisive. The example of F-16 fighter jets is given. Whilst these are due to arrive in the Summer, by then it will be too late, and the Russians will have had time to prepare their defences. The Ukrainian officials are quoted as saying that in recent months they have observed the Russians test-firing missiles from Jankoy in Northern Crimea. Intriguingly, these missiles did not have explosive warheads, and they initially didn't understand why. However, they have now determined that they were being used for range-finding in order to identify the best locations to deploy their S-400 air defence systems to counter the threat posed by the F-16s.

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Miscellaneous News in Brief

🎦 41:15-42:50⏩

Jonathan rounds up the news by talking about:

• Former Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, who has announced his intention to stand in the next Presidential election
• Images of an underground school in Kharkiv. The school will open in the next academic year, is 6 metres underground, and is designed to protect the children from Russian attacks. Jonathan notes the importance of ensuring that Ukrainian children continue to receive an education, despite the war.

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Wrap Up

🎦 42:50-42:58⏩

Jonathan thanks everyone for watching, and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He acknowledges that it's another long one, but there was a lot to get through.

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