Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"If your main method of repelling Russian attacks is artillery, that's your number one way of repelling them... you're going to need mortars and you're going to need artillery and they are going to need to be littering the Russian positions with hot lead, right?"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:40⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War Frontline update for 23/02/2024. He explains this will be a shorter video than usual as he has already posted three news update videos today, one of which is a 50-minute "bumper package" that he had to split into parts. This is his third news video of the day and will focus on the frontline. The longer video includes analysis of events in Africa and polling in Europe.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline

🎦 00:40-01:03⏩

Jonathan explains that viewers unfamiliar with the map should refer to previous videos as he has not prepared a key for this video. Jonathan reports that the northeastern frontline from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna is static with no map changes. He thanks JR for the map legend.

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Bakhmut Frontline

🎦 01:03-02:21⏩

Jonathan reports changes around the Ivanisvka area with Russian forces pushing onto the town's borders. This is a serious concern as it could threaten nearby Chasiv Yar. Jonathan highlights the road that runs south from Ivanivska to Chasiv Yar, via Stavritsky as a concern. He also notes minor Russian gains around Borynivka, potentially along the railway line.

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Avdiivka Frontline

🎦 02:21-05:52⏩

Significant Russian activity around Avdiivka as they clear the town and remove booby traps following the Ukrainian retreat. North of Avdiivka, Syriac Maps reports that Russian forces are gaining control of Stepova. To the north of Lastochkyne, Russian advances appear to have been halted but they continue to advance north from the coke plant and along the road. Deep State Maps, Syriac Maps and Andrew Perpetua agree on these gains. South of Lastochkyne, all map sources agree that Russian forces are advancing towards Tonenke. This is a challenge for the Ukrainians who are taking up defensive positions in the area. Jonathan highlights the two-pronged approach towards Tonenke and surrounding villages, such as Berdychi and Severny. Syriac Maps reports a significant increase in Russian activity in recent hours. They have advanced 100m west of the coke plant towards Orlivka, west of Khmelnytske and northwest of Opytne, taking control of forest in the area. They have also entered the northern part of Severny as Ukrainian forces withdraw to a new defensive line. Jonathan expresses sadness at these losses which he describes as "a real shame". He is also concerned that Russian forces are now able to advance easily through an area where they have previously taken heavy losses. He hopes that the Ukrainians have strong defensive lines in place, but notes that there have been concerns about the strength of Ukrainian fortifications.

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Krasnohorivka-Maryinka Frontline

🎦 05:52-07:42⏩

Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources suggest that they have launched attacks on Krasnohorivka and have advanced into the settlement. This is a "massive worry" as the loss of Krasnohorivka and Maryinka would be a significant blow. Jonathan highlights the mine in the area that has changed hands repeatedly. He suspects that Russian forces are more likely to be advancing in the flat ground north of Krasnohorivka than in the town itself. These advances are another worrying sign. Deep State Maps shows some Ukrainian advances in Pobieda. After struggling to pronounce the name of the village, Jonathan recalls that it had been mispronounced on the "Ukraine: The Latest" podcast recently.

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Orikhiv-Robotyne Frontline

🎦 07:42-08:36⏩

Jonathan reports Russian advances east of Robotyne, according to Andrew Perpetua, which extend further than those shown by Syriac Maps. Whilst concerning for the Ukrainians, he is not overly worried about this as the area had been recaptured by Ukrainian forces during the counteroffensive. The loss of this area represents a return to the status quo. He believes that the Russian objective is likely to be Orikhiv. Jonathan reiterates his concerns about the situation around Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka and Maryinka.

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Russian Equipment Losses - Terny-Yampil

🎦 08:36-09:52⏩

Imagery from the Terny-Yampil area, west of Kreminna, shows evidence of significant Russian equipment losses. No Reports (Telegram channel) shows destroyed, damaged and abandoned vehicles. Osman from the 24th IDAR Assault Battalion reports 246 pieces of Russian equipment. Jonathan notes that Russian equipment losses have been consistently high throughout the conflict. He cites the Ukrainian General Staff daily figures as evidence of this and believes that they are likely to be "at least somewhat accurate". However, he acknowledges that the Russians appear to be able to sustain these losses and are still able to push forward.

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Artillery Ammunition Shortage

🎦 09:52-13:18⏩

Jonathan explains that Ukrainian forces are facing a critical shortage of artillery ammunition. He cites a report from "Ukraine: The Latest" in which a reporter spoke to an artillery crew returning from Avdiivka. When asked about the situation with regard to artillery ammunition, the crew member's reply was: "We are f*ed". Jonathan stresses the vital importance of artillery in repelling Russian attacks. Whilst FPV drones are highly effective in destroying vehicles, artillery and mortars are crucial in pushing back infantry attacks. Ukrainian forces need to be able to "litter Russian positions with hot lead". The lack of ammunition is extremely concerning and Jonathan believes it could be argued that this is a result of a lack of preparation. He suggests that, given the high usage during the counteroffensive, Ukrainian and Western governments should have anticipated the need to stockpile sufficient ammunition for a prolonged conflict.

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Military Aid

🎦 12:30-13:18⏩

Jonathan argues that the only way Ukraine can win the war is to use large quantities of standoff munitions, such as ATACMS, Storm Shadow and Taurus missiles, as well as supplies from F16s, HIMARS, GLSDB and JDAMs. He advocates for the provision of "thousands, preferably tens of thousands" of these munitions to enable Ukrainian forces to target Russian troops and equipment, as well as strategic targets such as airbases, without putting their soldiers at risk.

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Wrap Up

🎦 13:18-14:31⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and reminds them to like, subscribe and share the video. He also mentions a video he recently posted for members only about trolls. He has now appointed a number of members as moderators and asks that they exercise caution and good judgement. He stresses the importance of dissent and welcomes disagreement. However, he asks moderators to remove Russian trolls spreading disinformation. He thanks his viewers for watching.

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