Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"Russia are in a wee bit of trouble when it comes to equipment. And I think every data point we seem to be getting in suggests that this is indeed the case."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:16⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another frontline update, reminding them to check the key if needed.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kharkiv Offensive Update - Overview

🎦 00:16-04:51⏩

Jonathan begins by examining the situation north of Kharkiv. He notes some discrepancies between different maps but acknowledges that Ukrainian forces appear to have made some gains. For example, the Ukrainian army continues counter attacks north of Kharkiv re-entering the village of Klyubike from the West. They are also pushing towards the key area of Kielbicke in an effort to disrupt Russian artillery bombardment of Kharkiv. There has been heavy fighting in the village of Hlyabukai with Russian forces putting up stiff resistance to Ukrainian counter attacks. He also notes heavy use of guided glide bombs by both sides in Vovchansk, and highlights the differences in interpretation between Syriac Maps, Deep State Maps, and Andrew Perpetua's maps, particularly regarding the extent of Russian control in Vovchansk. Jonathan observes the differing language used by Syriac Maps in reporting Ukrainian and Russian gains, suggesting a potential pro-Russian bias in their reporting. Jonathan notes Syriac Maps frequently downplays Ukrainian gains, citing their minimal description of Ukrainian advances compared to their more detailed reports of even small Russian gains.

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Kharkiv Offensive Update - Chuhuiv Axis

🎦 04:51-06:48⏩

Jonathan analyses the situation on the Chuhuiv axis, highlighting significant Ukrainian gains, particularly east of Vovchansk, pushing Russian forces back towards the border. Ukrainian forces have managed to recapture the village of Tikha and parts of the eastern centre of Vovchansk. Jonathan observes further evidence of Syriac Maps downplaying Ukrainian gains, noting their minimal reporting of Ukrainian territorial gains compared to more detailed descriptions of Russian actions.

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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Frontline Update

🎦 06:48-07:21⏩

Jonathan observes there are no changes along the frontline from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna. This is despite reports yesterday that the Russians have amassed 10,000 troops, 450 pieces of military equipment and are preparing to advance on Barova. He speculates that these forces may be waiting for the opportune moment to launch an offensive.

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Siversk-Soledar-Bakhmut Frontline Update

🎦 07:21-09:47⏩

There are no changes to the Serebryansky forest front line. However, Russian forces have made small gains north of Soledar and Bakhmut, advancing near Rostelevka. This advance poses a challenge for the Ukrainians as it could lead to the envelopment of their positions in Rosdolivka. Jonathan provides a detailed analysis of the situation in Klishchivka, highlighting the discrepancies between various maps. He suggests that the situation in Klishchivka is likely a grey zone with neither side in full control. This contradicts claims by Syriac Maps that Russian forces control the area. Jonathan questions the accuracy of Syriac Maps, suggesting they have been overly generous in depicting Russian gains in this area. He bases this on evidence from other sources, including Andrew Perpetua, suggesting Ukrainian forces are active in the area.

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Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar - Klishchivka Frontline Update

🎦 09:47-12:51⏩

Jonathan examines the area to the west of Bakhmut, noting that while Syriac Maps initially showed Ukrainian forces pushing back Russian forces in Kalinivka, they have now reversed their assessment, suggesting Russian forces have re-entered the centre of the village. Konstantin, a source on the ground reports heavy fighting in Chasiv Yar with Russian forces suffering heavy losses but continuing to press attacks. Moving south to Mayorsk, Jonathan highlights an area of agreement between Syriac Maps and Deep State Maps, with both showing Russian forces pushing Ukrainian forces west of the town. Jonathan believes that Russian forces are taking advantage of vulnerabilities created by Ukrainian troop rotations. He emphasizes that this tactic is not uncommon and has been effectively used by Russian forces in the past.

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Donetsk - Avdiivka Frontline Update

🎦 12:51-15:26⏩

Shifting focus to the Avdiivka sector, Jonathan observes that this is the last area of significant change on the frontline. There are no changes in the south or on the Dnipro front line. However, there has been movement around Alexandropil, just south of Avdiivka. He examines the area north of Avdiivka, where Surat Maps and Deep State Maps both indicate minor Russian advances towards Alexandrapil and north of Arkhangelsk. Further north, Russian forces have made slight gains north of Sokil, with Surat Maps depicting a larger area under Russian control compared to Deep State Maps. Jonathan describes a potential Russian flanking maneuver south of the Avdiivka salient, taking advantage of the terrain with its funneling effect towards two reservoirs. He notes that while this area might prove challenging for Russian forces to capture, they have made progress, reportedly entering Yasnobrodivka, a village on the edge of the northernmost reservoir.

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Russian Military Equipment Shortages

🎦 15:26-17:45⏩

Jonathan highlights the growing evidence of equipment shortages faced by the Russian military. He shares information about the redeployment of a pair of S-300 air defense systems from the disputed Kuril Islands, located between Japan and Russia, to bolster defenses in Crimea or potentially even further forward on the frontlines. This unusual move underlines the pressure on Russian air defenses and their struggles to counter Ukrainian air power. Jonathan mentions reports of 80% of Russian troops and equipment being withdrawn from the Finnish border, a move that further emphasizes the strain on Russian resources as they prioritize the conflict in Ukraine. This redeployment contradicts earlier posturing and suggests a weakening of Russia's military presence in other areas. Jonathan notes a fire in Henichesk, suggesting the possibility of a successful Ukrainian strike on another Russian air defense system, further emphasizing the ongoing pressure on Russian air defenses.

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F-16 Deployment and Importance of Targeting Russian Air Defenses

🎦 17:45-18:12⏩

Jonathan emphasizes the urgency for Ukrainian forces to continue targeting Russian air defenses, particularly in anticipation of the arrival of F-16 fighter jets, which are expected to be deployed in the coming months. The removal of these air defense systems will be critical in maximizing the impact of F-16s and bolstering Ukraine's offensive capabilities.

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Jonathan's Trip to Andover and Appreciation for Viewers

🎦 18:12-19:25⏩

Jonathan shares his experience of speaking at an event in Andover, organised by Mark B and Mark T. He expresses his gratitude for the invitation and appreciation for the positive feedback he received, particularly from attendees who had been brought along by their partners and found the discussion insightful. Jonathan gives a shout-out to Mark T's whiskey shop in Stockbridge, recommending it to viewers. The shop, "The Little Whiskey Shop" (whiskey without an E) can be found at thelittlewhiskeyshop.co.uk. He encourages his UK-based viewers to support the business, noting that they offer a fantastic selection of gin, whiskey, and other spirits.

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Wrap Up

🎦 19:25-19:29⏩

Jonathan thanks his audience for watching and signs off.

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