Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"It is vital to understand the links between, say, Heritage Foundation and Hungary and Russia."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:15⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War News Update for 11 December 2023 - Part B, and mentions a couple of points from his previous video.

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Russia claims Ukrainian agents detained in Crimea

🎦 00:15-01:42⏩

Russia's FSB claims to have detained 18 Ukrainian agents in Crimea. Jonathan notes that it's sometimes unclear whether such Russian claims are true, but expresses concern about the potential for knock-on effects if the arrests are genuine - that tortured partisans may be forced to give up the names of others.

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Renewed Russian offensive in Avdiivka

🎦 01:42-03:17⏩

Jonathan reports a renewed Russian offensive in the Avdiivka area, with 610 artillery shellings reported in a single day. The UK Ministry of Defence has described the fighting there as the most intense on the front line in the past week, accounting for 40% of all combat engagements. Jonathan notes that Russian advances have been slow, with Ukrainian forces conducting successful counter-attacks.

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Positive outlook for Ukrainian Military Aid

🎦 03:17-10:02⏩

Jonathan shares an optimistic outlook from defence analyst Philip O'Brien, who believes that this could be a period of significant breakthroughs for Ukraine, with a deal close on USAID, pledges of advanced firepower from France and additional support from Norway and the UK. Jonathan discusses Zelensky's upcoming visit to the White House and his belief that the US military, rather than President Biden, has been the main obstacle to Ukraine receiving ATACMS missiles. He speculates that US reluctance stemmed from concerns about their own strategic stockpiles, particularly given the need to replace existing ATACMS missiles with the newer PRISM system. Jonathan acknowledges the challenges Ukraine faces, particularly in terms of manpower, but emphasises the country's improving military capabilities, citing air defence as an example. He argues that the ramping-up of production by Western defence industries will ultimately favour Ukraine in the long term.

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US approves sale of tank shells to Israel

🎦 10:02-10:15⏩

The US State Department has approved the sale of 14,000 tank shells to Israel without seeking congressional approval. Jonathan expresses surprise at this development.

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US Army takes delivery of PRISM missiles

🎦 10:15-12:22⏩

Jonathan reports that the US Army has taken delivery of its first PRISM missiles, suggesting that this is the real reason for the delay in supplying Ukraine with ATACMS. He believes that once the US has sufficient PRISM missiles in its own stockpiles, Ukraine will begin to receive ATACMS, potentially with a 300km range.

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UK and Norway to lead Maritime Capability Coalition

🎦 12:22-13:53⏩

Jonathan reports that the UK will lead a new Maritime Capability Coalition to support the Ukrainian Navy, with Norway as a key partner. As part of the initiative, the UK will supply Ukraine with two additional Sandown-class minehunters, supplementing two similar vessels already in Ukrainian service. Although the Montreux Convention prevents Ukraine from deploying these ships in the Black Sea for the time being, Jonathan views the deal as a positive development, both in terms of providing immediate training and support and in ensuring that Ukraine has a viable navy in the future. He also highlights the symbolic importance of maritime nations like the UK and Norway supporting Ukraine in this way.

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Germany to supply 200,000 artillery shells to Ukraine in 2024

🎦 13:53-14:25⏩

Germany expects to be able to supply Ukraine with around 200,000 artillery shells in 2024. Jonathan acknowledges that the pace of arms deliveries needs to increase, but highlights this as a further example of growing support for Ukraine.

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Swedish military chief visits Ukraine

🎦 14:25-15:20⏩

The commander-in-chief of the Swedish Armed Forces recently visited the Ukrainian 45th Separate Artillery Brigade, which is equipped with Swedish-supplied Archer howitzers. Jonathan sees this as a positive sign of continuing Swedish support for Ukraine.

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Further details on UK minehunter deal

🎦 15:20-15:40⏩

Jonathan confirms that the UK is to supply Ukraine with two Sandown-class minehunters, supplementing two similar vessels that entered Ukrainian service in July. The earlier vessels were also British-built, but may have been transferred via the Netherlands.

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UK provides funding for war crimes investigations

🎦 15:40-16:25⏩

The UK has announced a £4.6 million aid package to support the investigation and prosecution of Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Jonathan notes that the volume of data being gathered during the conflict is unprecedented.

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UK Foreign Secretary calls for Russian assets to fund Ukrainian reconstruction

🎦 16:25-16:46⏩

Former UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has called for $350bn in frozen Russian assets to be used to fund Ukrainian reconstruction. He has also urged US policymakers to approve a new aid package for Ukraine after Congress blocked a previous $110bn proposal.

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Military supplies held up at Polish border

🎦 16:46-17:34⏩

Deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine are reported to be backlogged at the Polish border. Jonathan explains that Donald Tusk, whose party is likely to form the next Polish government, has made resolving the blockade a priority.

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Russia recruiting fighters from Cuba and Nepal

🎦 17:34-20:01⏩

Jonathan highlights a video that appears to show a Russian official calling for the invasion of Cuba. He goes on to discuss reports that Russia is recruiting fighters in both Cuba and Nepal. He speculates that while ideological motivations may be a factor in Cuba, those volunteering in Nepal are more likely to be attracted by financial incentives, drawing a parallel with the long tradition of Nepalese Gurkhas serving in the British Army.

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Putin's vision for Russia's western borders

🎦 20:01-21:47⏩

Jonathan plays a clip from a Russian state TV broadcast in which a presenter tells Putin that Russia is “now deciding where the border between Russia and the West will be”, going on to suggest that this border should lie “somewhere near Krakow”. Jonathan argues that such statements provide a clear indication of Russia’s intentions, namely to annex Ukraine and potentially invade Poland as well.

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Zelensky visits South America

🎦 21:47-22:43⏩

Jonathan reports that Zelensky travelled to Argentina to attend the inauguration of the country’s new president. During the visit, he met with the presidents of Paraguay, Uruguay and Ecuador. Zelensky stressed the importance of securing the support of Latin American countries, which have been identified as being particularly susceptible to Russian disinformation.

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Zelensky and Orban hold 'frank' talks

🎦 22:43-23:38⏩

Footage from the Argentinian presidential inauguration appears to show Zelensky and Viktor Orban of Hungary engaged in a lengthy conversation. Jonathan wonders aloud what the two leaders might have discussed. Zelensky has since described their exchange as a “frank conversation”.

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Republicans to meet with Orban allies

🎦 23:38-26:57⏩

Jonathan reports that allies of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán are to hold talks with Republican lawmakers in Washington. The meetings, which have been organised by the Heritage Foundation, will focus on ending US military support for Ukraine. Jonathan expresses concern about the links between Orbán, the Heritage Foundation and Russia. He argues that Russia has been attempting to influence US politics at both a national and a state level.

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Heritage Foundation's links to Hungary and Russia

🎦 26:57-29:51⏩

Jonathan reiterates his concerns about the Heritage Foundation’s links to Orbán and Russia. He highlights the fact that the Heritage Foundation receives funding from two Hungarian think tanks - the Danube Institute and the Batthyány Lajos Foundation - which are themselves funded by the Hungarian government. Jonathan draws attention to the role played by the Heritage Foundation in hosting CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) events, arguing that this has provided a platform for pro-Russian views.

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Orban 'harbours territorial ambitions in Ukraine'

🎦 29:51-31:59⏩

Jonathan cites claims by defence analyst John Ridge that Orbán has territorial ambitions in Ukraine, specifically in the Transcarpathian region. Jonathan notes that this region has a significant Hungarian minority.

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Orban under pressure ahead of EU summit

🎦 31:59-32:44⏩

The upcoming EU summit will discuss the opening of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the bloc, something Orbán has said he will not countenance. However, there is speculation that funds currently withheld from Hungary will be released if he agrees to allow the matter to be discussed.

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Hungarian truckers stage border protest

🎦 32:44-33:07⏩

Hungarian truck drivers are planning to stage a demonstration at the country’s border with Ukraine. However, Hungarian border guards have assured their Ukrainian counterparts that the protest will not disrupt cross-border traffic, as has been the case with similar demonstrations by truck drivers in Poland and Slovakia.

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Slovakian truckers to resume blockade

🎦 33:07-33:12⏩

Slovakian truck drivers are planning to resume their blockade of the border with Ukraine.

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New government likely in Poland

🎦 33:12-34:56⏩

The Polish parliament is expected to vote in favour of a new government led by Donald Tusk. Jonathan explains that while Polish support for Ukraine is likely to remain strong regardless of who is in power, Tusk’s pro-EU stance will make it easier to coordinate aid deliveries and exert pressure on Hungary. Tusk has also pledged to resolve the issue of blockades at the Polish border.

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Zelensky to meet Biden

🎦 34:56-35:02⏩

Jonathan reports that Zelensky will meet with President Biden in Washington the following day.

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Netanyahu and Putin discuss Iran

🎦 35:02-38:27⏩

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently held a 50-minute telephone conversation with Putin. According to Israeli sources, Netanyahu expressed dissatisfaction with Russia’s cooperation with Iran and irritation at Moscow’s stance on the recent war between Israel and Hamas. Jonathan notes the difficult balancing act Ukraine faces in trying to maintain good relations with both Israel and its critics. He highlights the importance of securing the support of Middle Eastern countries for Ukraine, while also acknowledging that the conflict between Israel and Hamas is a “real hot mess” that Ukraine would prefer to avoid.

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Wrap up

🎦 38:27-38:37⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He acknowledges that it was a long one, but stresses the importance of the information it contained.

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