Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"It's damned if you do, damned if you don't."
Hello Team!
Jonathan greets viewers and apologizes for the later than usual video due to Easter weekend. He mentions having a big meal planned for the day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses
The latest reported Russian losses are:
- 470 personnel (on the lower end recently)
- 0 tanks
- 4 APCs
- 13 artillery systems (a decent number and part of a concerted Ukrainian effort to target these)
- 14 drones
- 3 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 5 pieces of special equipment (a very high number)
Jonathan notes the losses are lower likely due to culmination and mud. Artillery losses are significant as they cause the most Ukrainian deaths and will be problematic for the upcoming counteroffensive if not dealt with.
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Special equipment losses
An example of a piece of special equipment destroyed is a Russian Neba SVU radar used for automated detection and tracking of aerial objects. This type of equipment hasn't been seen earlier in Ukraine and is a significant loss of capability for the Russians.
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Russian aircraft shot down
Footage is shown of a Russian Su-25 aircraft being shot down, with the pilot ejecting. Jonathan notes it's a "Hobson's choice" for Russian pilots - flying high makes them vulnerable to air defense systems like NASAMS, while flying low puts them in range of MANPADS (man-portable air-defense systems) like Stinger missiles.
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NASAMS success
The Norwegian-American NASAMS air defense systems supplied to Ukraine have taken out over 100 Russian cruise missiles and drones since November. They are proving to be incredibly useful and are consistently being resupplied with more missiles.
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Overnight explosions in Crimea
Loud explosions were heard overnight in Sevastopol, Crimea. These could be from missiles, drones, or air defense missiles. Yesterday explosions in Feodosia in eastern Crimea were claimed by Russia to be from debris of intercepted objects. Jonathan finds it remarkable Ukraine is able to almost hit targets this far into Crimea, not far from the Kerch bridge. This suggests they could potentially do a saturation attack on the bridge once the rail section is repaired. It's unknown if the explosions are from Ukrainian attacks reaching their targets or Russian air defenses.
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Russian shelling of Kherson
According to Ukraine, Russia shelled peaceful settlements in the Kherson region 71 times, firing 495 shells from MLRS, mortars, artillery, tanks, AGS grenade launchers, drones and aviation. This appears to be an ongoing problem for Ukrainians in the area.
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Damage in Zaporizhzhia
Shelling by Russians caused a fire and partial destruction of a 100 square meter residential area in Zaporizhzhia. The city is routinely hit, often nightly, with S-300 rockets.
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Railway line near Sloviansk hit
A railway line near Sloviansk was struck by the Russians. Sloviansk is one of the cities west of Bakhmut that would be the next line of defense if Bakhmut falls. While rail lines are relatively quick to repair, they are still a valuable target as even a couple days of disruption significantly impacts logistics for either side.
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Leaked documents
Bellingcat has investigated the sources of the recent US intelligence leaks. Some documents date back to January and were posted on Discord servers, with many more shared across servers in recent months beyond what appeared on the WoWMail server. The original "Thug Shaker Central" Discord server, where many leaks occurred, had a tight-knit community interested in video games, music, Orthodox Christianity and the YouTuber Oxide. It frequently changed names, sometimes to racial slurs, and had a conservative stance and racist content. Bellingcat has determined the WoWMail server was not the original source. While the initial source remains unknown, the leaks appear to originate from American rather than Ukrainian sources based on the nature of the documents.
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France denies troops in Ukraine
The French Defense Ministry denied the presence of French soldiers in Ukraine, as allegedly revealed in the leaked Pentagon documents. A ministry spokesperson stated no French forces are engaged in operations in Ukraine and they do not comment on documents with an uncertain source. However, Jonathan believes it is almost certain that British and likely French special forces are in Ukraine training and assisting in intelligence, though not on the front lines due to the risk. He would "put [his] mortgage on" UK special forces being there.
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Military aid
- According to Zelensky, Poland is sending 200 Rosomak infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, to arrive in the near future. These are newer APCs that will be very useful in the upcoming counteroffensive. The main question is if Ukraine will have enough time to train on and integrate them before offensive operations begin in late May.
- The leaked documents show the Wagner Group sought to purchase weapons from Turkey, a NATO ally, for use in Mali and Ukraine. The level of success in acquiring arms is unknown.
Twitter removes restrictions on Russian accounts
According to the Telegraph, Twitter has removed restrictions on Russian government accounts, with Kremlin-linked accounts now appearing in search results, timelines and recommendations. This comes after reports last week that Twitter is burying Ukraine news in its algorithms, lumping it with disinformation and misinformation. Racist, genocidal content from Russian figures like Dmitry Medvedev is allowed with a paid "blue tick". Jonathan expresses concern that recent moves by Twitter and Elon Musk seem to be favoring Russia over Ukraine in the information space. He cites an example of Musk falsely claiming Twitter never blocked links to Substack, directly contradicted by Twitter's own warning message.
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IMF and Ukraine state-owned enterprises
The IMF is providing $15.6 billion to Ukraine over 4 years with conditions and structural benchmarks for reforming state-owned enterprises to improve corporate governance. Jonathan notes there are always "strings attached" with such aid. In the most benign sense, the quid pro quo is Ukraine providing security for the rest of the world against Russia and China. But there are also explicit demands for changes that could range from positive anti-corruption and transparency measures to imposing free market capitalist ideology. He recommends looking at the Kyiv Independent's ongoing coverage of this issue to understand the details and implications of the IMF's conditionalities. While uncertain if it's good or bad overall, Jonathan emphasizes the importance of scrutinizing the "strings" as "there's no such thing as a free lunch."
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe and share. He wishes everyone a wonderful weekend, joking that he will try to get out more videos but can't promise due to family "getting in the way." He signs off with his usual "Toodlepips, speak soon."
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