Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Ru Loss Claims Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video, a Ukraine War news update, the first part for January 29, 2024.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Loss Claims
🎦 00:09-01:32⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses. He notes the high numbers, especially over 1,000 personnel lost, and the significant losses of tanks and artillery. He compares these figures to data from Oryx, emphasizing the need for a favorable loss ratio for Ukraine.
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Oryx Loss Analysis: Ukraine vs. Russia
🎦 01:32-03:40⏩
Jonathan analyzes the visual confirmation of losses from both sides, highlighting a high proportion of destroyed equipment for Russia. He points out Ukrainian losses, including a valuable Stridsvagn 122 tank, and notes the financial impact of these losses for Russia over the course of the war.
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Russian Disinformation: Drone Attack in Kherson
🎦 03:40-07:25⏩
Jonathan discusses Russian disinformation tactics, citing an incident in Kherson where Russia blamed Ukraine for a drone attack on a civilian. He presents evidence from Andrew Perpetua, who debunks the Russian claims with video footage showing Russian drones targeting civilians in the same area. Jonathan emphasizes the persistent pattern of Russian disinformation and their attempts to deny responsibility for civilian casualties.
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Russian Claims vs. Reality: Skynex Air Defence System
🎦 07:25-09:26⏩
Jonathan addresses Russian claims of destroying a Ukrainian Skynex air defense system. He analyzes the images provided by Russia, comparing the truck and equipment to the actual Skynex system. Citing information from military experts like War Vehicle, Jonathan debunks the Russian claims, pointing out inconsistencies that suggest the destroyed equipment is not a Skynex.
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Russian Losses in Avdiivka and the Krinki Bridgehead
🎦 09:26-14:15⏩
Jonathan delves into Russian losses, focusing on the Avdiivka and Krinki bridgehead areas. He references Perun's analysis, highlighting the significant losses of Russian tanks and armored vehicles. Jonathan explains the strategic importance of the Krinki bridgehead for Ukraine, where they are attracting and attriting Russian forces, despite the risks involved. He emphasizes the staggering loss ratios in this area, with Russia losing significantly more equipment.
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Lost Armour Website and Inconsistencies in Loss Data
🎦 14:15-20:38⏩
Jonathan discusses the Lost Armour website, a Russian platform similar to Oryx, claiming to track Ukrainian losses. He compares their data to visually confirmed losses, highlighting inconsistencies and potential over-claiming by the Russian source. Jonathan points out instances where the evidence for claimed Ukrainian losses is weak or inconclusive, suggesting a need for greater scrutiny of Russian sources. He concludes by emphasizing the importance of using reliable sources and acknowledging the uncertainties inherent in loss data.
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Russian Domestic Issues: Fires and Arson Attacks
🎦 21:12-22:00⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Russian domestic issues, reporting on fire incidents and a rise in arson attacks against military enlistment offices. He links this to potential public distrust in the government's promises regarding mobilization, suggesting growing anxieties surrounding a possible new wave of conscription in Russia.
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Drone and Missile Attacks Overnight
🎦 22:00-23:46⏩
Jonathan provides updates on overnight drone and missile attacks. He reports that Ukraine successfully downed all eight Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia. However, Russia also fired Iskander-M and S-300 missiles towards Donetsk, highlighting the continued threat of ballistic missile attacks. Explosions were reported in Poltava, possibly indicating further strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure
🎦 23:46-29:11⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, showcasing the expanding range of Ukrainian capabilities. He highlights an attack on the Slavneft refinery, located a significant distance from the Ukrainian border, emphasizing its psychological impact despite minimal damage. Jonathan agrees with Perun's assessment, stating that these attacks serve a three-fold purpose: disrupting Russian fuel supplies, damaging Russian public image, and stretching Russian air defense systems thin. He predicts that these attacks will continue, forcing Russia into a reactive position.
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DDoS Attack on Ukrainian Prisoner of War Information Resources
🎦 29:11-30:04⏩
Jonathan reports a DDoS attack on Ukrainian information resources related to the coordination of prisoner of war exchanges. He highlights that this attack specifically targeted information regarding a downed Il-76 cargo plane near Belgorod, suggesting Russian attempts to disrupt Ukrainian efforts to clarify the situation surrounding the incident, for which Russia has yet to provide evidence of the prisoners of war onboard.
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Ukrainian Defence Ministry Uncovers Corruption in Enlistment and Procurement
🎦 30:04-32:02⏩
Jonathan discusses reports of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry uncovering corruption within enlistment offices and food warehouses. He clarifies that this corruption does not involve Western-supplied weapons but emphasizes the importance of these findings. He sees it as a positive sign that Ukraine is actively rooting out corruption, contrasting it with the perceived inaction of Russia in addressing similar issues within its own ranks.
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Russian Military Ineptitude and Criticism from Within
🎦 32:02-35:15⏩
Jonathan highlights the ongoing trend of criticism directed at the Russian military's performance in Ukraine. He cites the case of reporter Filatov, who has become openly critical of the Russian MOD, similar to the previously jailed Evel Gherkin. Jonathan argues that this internal dissent benefits Ukraine and underscores the failures of the Russian military campaign. He concludes by stating that regardless of future developments, Russia has already suffered a significant blow to its military reputation.
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Wrap Up
🎦 35:15-35:27⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video.
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"No matter where the war goes now… the Russians have failed… this has been an absolutely dismal… dismal show of Russian armed forces capabilities and decision making strategy… been dismal."
