Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"The West should just be going, like, you can hit Russia wherever, you can do whatever you want, here's all the stuff you need, need just bloody go for it because otherwise this thing's going to drag on seriously long and there'll be such a lack of appetite for continuing in the general public and a lot of nations and politically speaking in continuing to help ukraine and that will aid russia and the destabilizing of the geopolitical landscape worldwide would will be massively significant"
Hello Team!
Jonathan starts the video with his usual greeting and provides an overview of the topics to be covered in this update.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported 680 Russian personnel lost, 12 tanks, 30 armoured personnel vehicles, 23 artillery systems, 2 MLRS, 1 anti-aircraft system, and 28 drones destroyed in the past day.
- Andrew Perpetua, a mapper, found that Russians are losing equipment at a 4-5:1 ratio compared to Ukrainians based on open source intelligence.
- A column of mobilised Russian soldiers from Chuvashia was wiped out by a HIMARS strike, with casualties possibly exceeding 120. Local authorities appear to be trying to cover up the losses.
- Another Russian column of tanks and armoured vehicles was destroyed by Ukraine's 14th Brigade in the Kupyansk direction.
Ukrainian Losses & the Impact of Drones
- Ukraine lost a Leopard 2A6 tank in Avdiivka. A Bradley and another Leopard were also lost in the same area.
- FPV drones have become a game changer in the war. About half of Russian artillery and a third of armoured vehicles are being taken out with the help of these drones. Ukraine sends 12-15,000 FPV drones to the front every month.
- Dive bombing drones are also being used, which are reusable unlike loitering munitions. However, they require more operator training.
- Drones have made it extremely difficult for either side to move without being spotted, whether by drone or satellite imagery. This is a new era of warfare.
Distant Strikes
- Overnight, Russia attacked with drones and missiles. Ukraine shot down 18 out of 20 drones and 1 Kh-59 missile. Two more Kh-59s were later destroyed over the Black Sea.
- There are worries that even Kyiv's air defences could be overwhelmed if Russia launched a huge wave of missiles and drones.
- In occupied Donetsk, a Russian fuel warehouse was struck, destroying several trucks and train carriages.
- Russian helicopters have moved from Bodiansk airport to Taganrog airbase in Russia after successful Ukrainian strikes. This complicates logistics but the helicopters can still be used to attack Ukrainian positions.
Putin's Doubles
- Japanese facial recognition experts have concluded that Putin likely has at least two doubles, based on analysis of his public appearances.
- The doubles were identified at events like the Red Square parade, Crimean bridge opening, and Mariupol visit, with facial similarity ranging from just 18% to 53%.
- Ukrainian intelligence has previously claimed Putin uses three doubles who have undergone plastic surgery.
- Jonathan is convinced by the evidence of Putin's doubles, noting clear differences in appearance and behaviour between the "two Putins".
Russian War Crimes & PMC Wagner
- The UN stated there are sufficient grounds to believe Russia struck the village of Hroza, killing 59 people attending a funeral. They called it a violation of international humanitarian law and a war crime.
- Jonathan emotionally condemns pro-Kremlin voices who try to justify or ignore these atrocities, mentioning the murder of a family including children in Volnovakha.
- PMC Wagner has reportedly resumed recruiting volunteers, now under the "Russian National Guard" led by Prigozhin's son. The implications are unclear.
Other News
- Russia has withdrawn nearly all its remaining forces from Belarus, likely deploying them to the front lines in Ukraine. This suggests no attack from Belarus is imminent.
- The ISW reported that Russian officials are concerned about losing control over peripheral regions like Dagestan and Boratia.
Wrap up
Jonathan concludes the update, thanking viewers for their support and encouraging them to like, subscribe and share the video. He signs off with his customary "Toodle Pip!"
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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Steps:
Extract key information from the transcript, focusing on the main topics discussed
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Use British English spelling and grammar throughout
Include an introduction and wrap up section
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