Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
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"Bakhmut appears to be doing its job still."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war frontline for 28 May 2023. He will go through the key areas of activity from north to south.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeast Sector - Kupyansk to Kreminna
- There have been some claimed Russian gains near Mazhutivka village in the Kupyansk area, securing the eastern shore of the Oskil River. The ISW has not seen visual confirmation of this.
- Russian forces also claimed to have conducted offensive operations near Movchanova, 10km northeast of Kupyansk, destroying a Ukrainian platoon.
- There is disagreement between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian mappers on the extent of Russian control in the Serebryansky forest near Kreminna. Geolocated footage suggests Russian forces likely advanced northwest of Bilohorivka.
Bakhmut
- The Ukrainian army has recaptured areas north of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. Fighting has come to a standstill in Bakhmut city itself since Wagner handed over positions to regular Russian troops.
- The Russian military command appears to be reinforcing Bakhmut's flanks with regular formations like VDV paratroopers, weakening other areas like the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Ukrainian forces have made advances of 350-450m on the southern flank near Klishchiivka.
- Jonathan argues Bakhmut is still doing its job of fixing Russian troops and resources, causing them to weaken other parts of the frontline.
Avdiivka
- Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Pervomaiske and Nevelske, southwest of Avdiivka.
- A pro-Russian blogger claimed Russian forces conducted reconnaissance in force near Novomykhailivka and Krasnohorivka.
- Russian attacks around Avdiivka have been decreasing, with resources diverted to Bakhmut. Over 50% of attacks in the east were around Marinka.
Southern Axis
- Russian forces continue to target southern Ukraine with airstrikes, drones and artillery.
- Ukraine claims to be focusing heavily on counter-battery fire and has destroyed record amounts of Russian artillery in May.
- There are concerns Russia may be preparing provocations to create a radiological danger at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Jonathan suggests this could be a last resort tactic to disrupt a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Counteroffensive Speculation
Jonathan believes the counteroffensive began when Ukraine decided to defend Bakhmut, alongside increased shaping operations in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. A poll of his channel members showed most expect the major counteroffensive to begin in June or July. He suggests the relative quiet in Luhansk could indicate the counteroffensive will focus more on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan appreciates viewers taking the time to watch the update and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video. He leaves them with the results of a member poll on when they expect the counteroffensive to take place, with June being the most common prediction, followed by July.
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