Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"But I doubt the Ukrainians are going to lock them up for 27 years."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:26⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATPGF Politics video. This is Part 1 of the Ukraine War Update for the 21st March 2024. It's a busy day for Jonathan with multiple live streams scheduled.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Battle Assessment
🎦 00:26-02:16⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's battle assessment for the previous day's fighting (all the usual caveats apply - see description). There's a continuing trend of fewer losses and equipment damaged, attributed in part to the recent Russian elections and the onset of the "mud season". However, the loss of 750 Russian personnel is still significant. Jonathan reminds viewers that behind the statistics are human beings. Tank and APV losses were around average, but artillery and vehicle losses were above average. Jonathan highlights that the Oryx loss figures show Russian equipment losses are three to four times higher than Ukrainian losses.
Russian drone attacks in Northwest Black Sea
🎦 02:16-10:34⏩
Jonathan observes a worrying trend of Russian drone attacks in the northwest Black Sea, posing a real problem for Ukraine. Russian Lancet loitering munitions have damaged a number of Ukrainian communication towers, surveillance equipment, and a Kolchuga-M radar system in this region. Additionally, footage has emerged of a Ukrainian evacuation robot being destroyed by an FPV drone and artillery. Jonathan highlights the significance of these losses as the Odessa region, with its critical port infrastructure, should be heavily defended. However, Russian reconnaissance drones appear to be penetrating these defences, enabling strikes from Lancet drones with their considerable range. Jonathan provides a detailed description of the capabilities of the Kolchuga passive sensor system and expresses concern over the vulnerability of Ukrainian assets in this region. The L-39 Albatros trainer aircraft damaged in a Lancet attack may have been sheltered in a tent. Jonathan suspects the damage is to the tent rather than the aircraft itself, noting that similar attacks have happened before at the Mykolaiv airport. Again, this highlights Russia's ability to operate loitering munitions in areas where they should not.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes
🎦 10:34-11:21⏩
There's footage of Ukrainian drones employing automatic homing systems to destroy a Russian tank and a BM-21 Grad MLRS, marking a development in drone warfare capabilities.
Abrams Tank Damaged - Avdiivka
🎦 11:21-12:58⏩
Footage shows a damaged but not destroyed Abrams tank, likely abandoned due to becoming immobile. The tank sustained significant damage but no rounds penetrated the interior. The crew escaped unharmed and reportedly fired all ammunition before abandoning the vehicle. Jonathan notes that while some are calling for the US to send more Abrams tanks to Ukraine, this is ultimately a matter for Congress. The tank's ability to withstand Russian fire without being penetrated is significant.
Russian Armoured Column Losses
🎦 12:58-15:58⏩
Footage shows the aftermath of a Russian armoured column ambushed by Ukrainian forces, resulting in heavy losses. Out of 10 vehicles, eight were destroyed, one escaped, and another ended up submerged in water. The footage captures several vehicles being hit by drone-launched munitions and driving into trenches, rendering them inoperable. Jonathan expresses frustration at such avoidable losses. The small viewing windows in certain armoured vehicles, particularly older models, limit the crew's field of vision, making it difficult to spot craters, trenches and mines.
Themis UGV Destroyed
🎦 15:58-16:56⏩
Jonathan reports the first confirmed loss of a Ukrainian Themis unmanned ground vehicle (UGV). Germany donated 14 of these systems, seven configured for route clearance with payloads from French defence manufacturer CNIM Système Industriel.
Overnight Russian Missile Barrage
🎦 16:56-19:22⏩
Jonathan discusses the first large-scale Russian missile barrage in over a month, with 31 missiles launched, likely targeting Kyiv. This suggests a possible constraint on Russian missile stockpiles or launch capabilities. All 31 missiles, including 29 Kh-101 cruise missiles, one Kinzhal hypersonic missile, and one Iskander-M, were intercepted and destroyed by Ukrainian air defences. This success, while depleting Ukrainian air defence resources, also highlights Russia's inability to sustain such barrages, potentially due to production limitations. Despite the successful interceptions, falling debris from the downed missiles caused damage to buildings, cars and roads in Kyiv, resulting in 13 injuries, including one child. Thankfully, there were no confirmed fatalities.
Russian Black Sea Fleet Activity
🎦 19:22-21:09⏩
Jonathan highlights a statement by Natalia Humenyuk, spokeswoman for Operational Command South, stating that no Russian ships were involved in the recent missile barrage, with some vessels remaining in port for weeks or even a month. Jonathan considers this significant as it suggests Russia is hesitant to deploy its Black Sea Fleet, a primary launch platform for cruise missile attacks, due to the threat of Ukrainian attacks. This signifies a major strategic victory for Ukraine, effectively neutralising a significant portion of Russia's offensive capabilities. Jonathan acknowledges that Russia is likely seeking ways to overcome this vulnerability. For instance, Shoigu's recent visit to Sevastopol included instructions to equip ships with heavy machine guns for improved defence against drone attacks. The effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen.
Explosions in Belgorod
🎦 21:09-23:15⏩
Explosions and damage are reported in Belgorod, but the exact nature of the incidents remains unclear. It's uncertain whether these are Ukrainian strikes or Russian air defence activities. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the strategic value of these incidents. Some reports suggest they are linked to Ukrainian-backed "Free Russia" units operating within Russia. Jonathan questions whether the gains from these operations outweigh the risks and resources expended. He also notes the significant damage caused by an anti-ship missile strike on the regional prosecutor's office in Kharkiv, highlighting Russia's targeting of civilian infrastructure. Jonathan draws a parallel between Russia's actions and previous incidents where Russian citizens celebrated missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets, raising questions about the potential consequences of such actions.
Sumy Oblast Bombed
🎦 24:20-25:17⏩
Sumy Oblast, located south of Kursk, has been subjected to intense bombardment, particularly from aviation bombs. This is likely in retaliation for the activities of the Free Russia Legion and other groups operating in the Belgorod region.
Free Russia Legion Update
🎦 25:17-26:54⏩
The Freedom of Russia Legion claims responsibility for the missile barrage on Kyiv, asserting it was retaliation for events in Belgorod. The situation in Belgorod remains fluid, with the Legion reportedly still in control of areas around Gordeevka. However, the situation is difficult to assess. Andrew Perpetua is critical of the Legion's progress, arguing their equipment losses exceed those inflicted on Russian forces. While this is common in the initial stages of an offensive, it raises questions about the Legion's ability to gain and hold territory. There are reports of Russia deploying elite troops to the region, potentially validating the Legion's efforts as it could divert resources from other fronts.
Russian Show Trial of Ukrainian POWs
🎦 27:49-31:10⏩
Jonathan discusses a recent report highlighting the plight of Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia. In another staged trial, 10 Ukrainian POWs have been sentenced to 26-27 years imprisonment. The men, accused of shelling civilian targets based on likely coerced confessions, are part of Ukraine's Azov Regiment, a unit often misrepresented as "nationalist" by Russian propaganda. Jonathan criticises the trial, highlighting its lack of legitimacy and Russia's systematic abuse of POWs. He also points out the hypocrisy of Russia's accusations, given their documented indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Wrap up
🎦 31:10-31:29⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
