Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: S Africa & ICC Arrest Warrant, Measuring Success, & Convict Con
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"This is the culmination of all the training, all the things that NATO put in place in terms of combined arms maneuvers, in terms of getting equipment, in terms of countering Russia's armed forces. This is it."
01/05/2023
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as a Ukraine War Update Extra, providing additional insights and understanding about the war in Ukraine.
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Mobilized Russians Threatened to Sign Mercenary Contracts
- Mobilized Russians from the Khanty-Mansi autonomous okrug in western Siberia were reportedly detained and threatened with being shot unless they signed contracts with a mercenary company
- The men were sent to Luhansk in December 2022 after training in Russia to guard a factory, but in April they were divided into groups, had documents taken, and sent to the front lines
- One man, Dmitry Ogorodny, called his wife from a hospital in Luhansk saying he would be discharged and taken somewhere unknown
- Jonathan compares this to slavery, with the men valued less than the convicts also being sent to fight
- The men's wives have appealed to Russian authorities but received denials, with one official suggesting it's a hoax despite similar reports from other regions in April
Ukraine's Preparations Leave Russia in Disarray
- CNN reports that as Ukraine prepares for its much-anticipated counter-offensive, Russia appears to be in disarray
- Ukraine's front lines show vehicle movements and artillery strikes on key Russian targets in occupied areas, with the defense minister saying preparations are nearly complete
- Russia has had months to prepare defenses in Zaporizhzhia, the likely target, but recent events betray their lack of readiness:
- The apparent firing of the deputy defense minister in charge of logistics right before the counter-offensive
- Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin's public criticism about the lack of ammunition for his mercenaries, forcing their withdrawal from Bakhmut
- Jonathan notes these events support the hypothesis that Russia's war effort is struggling rather than succeeding
Russian Ex-Convict Describes Forced Recruitment
- Russian ex-convict Yakov Lev describes how 110 convicts from a St. Petersburg prison were recruited by the Ministry of Defense and sent to Ukraine without documents
- They were given guard duties but then sent to the front lines and replaced by other prisoners
- The convicts were given a 6-month contract with no conditions other than to "survive if you can"
- Several convicts have been killed or injured due to the incompetence of their volunteer commander
- Jonathan notes this account matches other reports and indicates the terrible conditions faced by these conscripted convicts
South Africa's Dilemma over Arresting Putin
- South Africa, as a member of the BRICS alliance and the ICC, faces a dilemma over arresting Putin if he attends an upcoming summit in the country
- The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes related to deporting Ukrainian children
- South Africa's government initially wanted to withdraw from the ICC to avoid the issue, but legal advice warned this would breach their international obligations and domestic laws
- A previous failure to arrest Sudan's leader in 2016 was ruled unconstitutional by South African judges, setting a precedent
- South Africa has been pressured by the US over its refusal to condemn Russia's invasion and recent hosting of Russian warships for joint exercises
- A senior official says the only option is for Putin to attend the summit virtually to avoid arrest
- Jonathan notes this is a significant development and praises US/EU efforts to pressure countries like South Africa to hold Russia accountable
Measures of Success for Ukraine's Counter-Offensive
- Retired Australian General Mick Ryan outlines 7 key measures of success for Ukraine's coming counter-offensive:
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- Jonathan emphasizes the importance of retaking Crimea due to the strategic value of the Sevastopol port for Russian naval operations
- He suggests the initial focus will be on Zaporizhzhia to enable threatening Crimea, with the Donbas a lower priority
- Jonathan highlights the extensive NATO involvement in planning and intelligence for this offensive as a culmination of decades of preparing to counter Russia
- Minimizing Ukrainian casualties will likely be a key objective, using standoff weapons and encirclement rather than costly urban battles
- The measures provide a framework to assess the success of Ukraine's offensive in the coming months
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks the viewers for their support and says he will be back with another update tomorrow.
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