Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"They said is president xi of china a brilliant man i said yes he is he's a brilliant man next day trump said president xi is brilliant i said yeah i did they want me to say no he's not a very smart guy you know just runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist it's crazy"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:21⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine war frontline update - part two - for 7th January 2024. Viewers are encouraged to watch part one. Today’s video will focus on military aid, equipment and other aid as well as geopolitical news.

Return to top⤴️

Denmark to send Ukraine aid package worth $1.1bn

🎦 00:21-01:54⏩

Denmark is preparing a new aid package for Ukraine worth $1.1 billion. The Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederickson, made the announcement during a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky. The package will include ammunition, tanks, and drones if approved. Jonathan notes that this would be another significant package from Denmark, who recently gave a large aid package to Ukraine. Yuri Ihnat commented on the statement about the alleged delays in the transfer of F-16s from Denmark. Delays are going to be contingent on a number of things, some for good reason, including that the F16s are being fitted with longer-ranged radars. Jonathan revisits statistics about how much different countries are contributing, reminding viewers that contributions need to be considered in the context of GDP. He refers to an infographic from October 2023 - two months out of date - which shows that, at that time, the US had been slow to provide further aid. He makes the point that a lot can change in two months. Jonathan uses the analogy of a homeless person versus a billionaire, arguing that while the billionaire might give more in real terms, they are both doing their best.

Return to top⤴️

How much are countries contributing to Ukraine? (as a percentage of GDP)

🎦 01:54-08:53⏩

Jonathan highlights that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Denmark are an inspiration. He quotes a comment from Michael McKay - "If other democracies put the same effort supporting Ukrainian defenders as these exemplary countries the Russian fascist invaders would quickly be defeated". Jonathan goes on to explain that the infographic shows aid given to Ukraine between 24th January 2022 and October 2023 both bilaterally (shown in dark blue) and as a percentage of what they give to the EU (shown in light blue). He explains that the aid given via the EU is then added to the individual countries’ bilateral donations. So for example, Lithuania has given 1.4% of their GDP to Ukraine bilaterally, plus 0.4% via the EU (a total of 1.8%). This is why Norway does not have a light blue bar on the chart, as they are not a full member of the EU. The UK is also not a member of the EU and has given 0.4% of GDP. Jonathan points out that this is not as much as some other nations. The USA was in 30th position when he last looked at the data, giving 0.3% of their GDP. He stresses that he is not denigrating the US - they have done an amazing job and are still very important, in fact, going forward without them would be very difficult - but that we should not criticise Europe, as by this metric they are doing a better job than the US. However, by the real terms metric, the US is doing better than all of the European nations. It's important to remember that the US has a population of 330 million, while the EU has a population of 448 million (plus Norway and the UK, who are in Europe but not in the EU). The US has a larger GDP than the EU. Within the EU there is a real range of countries with varying abilities to pay. Romania sits above the US in terms of the percentage of GDP given to Ukraine, but it is a relatively poor country. Cyprus has given more than the US as a percentage of their GDP, but very little in real terms. The key takeaway is that we need to be nuanced in our criticisms. Europe as a whole is doing more, but the EU is a range of countries, and some of those countries are just very poor. Jonathan suggests that it would be reasonable to criticise countries like Spain, Austria, Greece, Portugal, Slovenia, Belgium, Hungary, Italy, France, and Romania (especially Italy and France). While they have given a lot through the EU, they could do a lot more to increase their bilateral support. Germany has given a reasonable amount, but this is likely to have gone up significantly in the last two months.

Return to top⤴️

Poland calls for more sanctions against Russia

🎦 08:53-09:14⏩

The Polish foreign minister has urged Europe to respond to Russia’s missile attacks on Ukraine by imposing more sanctions on the Kremlin’s war machine. He also said that the EU should supply Kyiv with long-range missiles to target Russian command centres.

Return to top⤴️

Netherlands supply field hospitals to Ukraine

🎦 09:14-10:15⏩

Field hospitals supplied by The Kingdom of the Netherlands are already being used by the National Guard. The hospitals have an autonomous power supply, meaning they can work on a diesel generator, and have their own water supply and drainage system. They are also equipped with a supply of medicines and consumables. This kind of equipment is sorely needed and will help the survivability of troops on the frontline.

Return to top⤴️

German-made Skynex air defence system in Ukraine

🎦 10:15-11:16⏩

Jonathan reminds viewers of his interview with Germane to Ukraine a couple of days ago, in which they discussed the new Skynex system. At the time it was believed that one system was in Ukraine and another was on its way. However, Germane to Ukraine has since written a blog post suggesting that at least prototypes of the Skynex system were already in Ukraine. Ukraine is a great testing ground for new weapons, as you are not going to get better data about how they perform than by using them in a war zone. Germane to Ukraine’s blog can be found at idua.org/news.

Return to top⤴️

Zelensky: Ukraine is strengthening its drone capabilities

🎦 11:16-12:09⏩

Zelensky has said that Ukraine is preparing new lines of cooperation with partners, in particular on drones, to strengthen their capabilities in the use of drones and in countering Russian drones. This will include strengthening electronic warfare. This is a very important development, as there is something of an arms race going on between Russia and Ukraine in terms of drone and counter-drone capabilities.

Return to top⤴️

German politicians call for Taurus missiles to be sent to Ukraine

🎦 12:09-13:08⏩

According to CSU leader and prime minister of Bavaria, Markus Söder, Germany and the EU would face a security problem if Russia wins the war. He said that the only way to prevent this is to deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine and to upgrade the Bundeswehr. Jonathan notes that this is exactly the kind of rhetoric that those who want Taurus missiles to be sent to Ukraine want to hear. He goes on to say that former German president, Joachim Gauck, has also criticised Olaf Scholz for his hesitation to supply Ukraine with all necessary material, especially Taurus missiles. Gauck has said that Germany needs to help Ukraine “with everything, no exceptions”. It is interesting that two fairly prominent politicians are now saying that Taurus missiles need to be sent to Ukraine. There seems to be a mounting coalition of voices wanting this to happen.

Return to top⤴️

Serbian-made shells found in Belgorod

🎦 13:08-14:07⏩

Serbian 122mm shells with a production date of April 2023 have been found in the Belgorod region. The shells, which appear to have been fired by the Ukrainians, have a range of up to 40 kilometres - more than the 20 to 25 kilometres that is usual for conventional modifications. Jonathan highlights that this shows that Serbia, like Hungary and Slovakia, is talking out of both sides of its mouth. While politically aligned with Russia, they are also happy to provide military equipment to Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Japanese foreign minister visits Ukraine

🎦 14:07-15:36⏩

Japanese Foreign Minister, Yoko Kamikawa, has arrived in Ukraine by train from Poland. She is there to reiterate Japan’s support for Ukraine. Kamikawa will also be meeting with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba. Jonathan believes that Japan are becoming a more important ally to Ukraine. They recognise what Russia are doing in the East (in Japan’s geographical sphere of influence) and have a long-running argument with Russia over the islands to the north of Japan. Japan seem to be changing their military strategy, moving away from a defence force to a more regular army, and there is speculation about whether they will start to export weapons. We may see Japan be more explicit in their support for Ukraine in the future.

Return to top⤴️

Polish farmers agree to suspend border blockade

🎦 15:36-16:15⏩

The Polish government has reached a deal with farmers to suspend the border blockade at the Świnoujście crossing. The blockade was causing problems for the movement of goods, including military equipment. This is good news for Ukraine. Hopefully a sustainable agreement can be reached.

Return to top⤴️

Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey to clear mines from the Black Sea

🎦 16:15-16:56⏩

Bulgaria has announced the start of a mission with Romania and Turkey to clear mines from the Black Sea. The operation will help to keep the Black Sea grain corridor safe for grain and other exporters.

Return to top⤴️

US sanctions on Russian bread factory producing drones

🎦 16:56-17:22⏩

The US has introduced sanctions against a bread factory in Tambov that is producing unmanned aerial vehicles for the military. According to the Financial Times, the bakery produces 250 drones a month.

Return to top⤴️

Marches in support of Ukraine held in Berlin, Cologne and Dublin

🎦 17:22-18:50⏩

There seems to have been a concerted effort to keep Ukraine in the news. There have been marches in support of Ukraine in Berlin, Cologne and Dublin. The marches are a reminder of the ongoing situation in Ukraine, and the importance of supporting the Ukrainian people. It is easy to forget what is going on in Ukraine with so many other things happening in the world. Jonathan notes that the next US president will have a huge impact on what happens in Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan expresses concerns about Trump’s attitude to dictators

🎦 18:50-22:00⏩

Jonathan acknowledges that viewers are probably fed up of hearing him talk about this, but says that it is very important. He plays a clip of Trump saying very complimentary things about Xi Jinping. He also plays a clip of Trump praising Viktor Orbán (Prime Minister of Hungary), describing him as “the most respected man, probably the toughest man in Europe, maybe beyond Europe.” Jonathan is concerned by Trump’s repeated praising of dictators, which extends beyond Xi Jinping and Viktor Orbán to Jair Bolsonaro, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un. If Trump were to become president, he would be deeply worried about the future of US foreign policy, and about what would happen in Ukraine. This is a view shared by other people Jonathan has spoken to recently. He goes on to say that the European Council President, Charles Michel, is probably going to leave his post early to run for Member of European Parliament. If a replacement can’t be found, his place will temporarily be taken by Viktor Orbán. Jonathan describes the possibility of Viktor Orbán in a position of authority in the EU as “really problematic” and “super worrying”.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap up

🎦 22:00-22:13⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video. He is hoping to appear on Tochny later.

Return to top⤴️