Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Kotkin on the War, Statues, & Analysing the Counteroffensive #2
Table of Contents 📖
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"I didn't understand that all of that could happen so quickly. It was a gift from the Ukrainians. It was a gift, their courage, their ingenuity. It was a gift maybe we didn't deserve, but they delivered it to us at very high cost, extremely high cost, which is still going on as we speak."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, explaining he will cover a few bits and pieces before getting into a long thread analysing the potential counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia. He mentions his brain is "mush" and he's not sure which video he's doing.
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Mapping and Plagiarism
Jonathan jokingly accuses Anders Puck Nilsson, a YouTuber he recommends, of plagiarizing his "high quality" mapping skills. He highlights the likely areas for a Ukrainian push in the south to cut the Russian-occupied area in two.
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YouTube Comment Deletions
Jonathan clarifies he does not delete viewer comments, except outright spam or insulting accusations without evidence. He explains YouTube's algorithm randomly deletes comments, including his own at times, which is frustrating. Posts with external links are also automatically removed.
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Pulling Down Soviet Statues
A video montage from 2014 shows Soviet statues being toppled in various European and Caucasus locations. Jonathan sees this as Russia losing soft power and cultural influence over the past decade, accelerated by their invasion of Ukraine. He believes it was one of Russia's worst decisions with far-reaching ramifications.
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Kherson Curfew and Counteroffensive Speculation
Kherson announcing a curfew leads Jonathan to speculate if it's a psyop to make Russians think a counterattack is coming, a double bluff, or triple bluff - ultimately sowing confusion over Ukraine's actual intentions.
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Stephen Kotkin Interview
Jonathan shares excerpts from an insightful Stephen Kotkin interview. Key points:
- The West is more unified and powerful than the "multipolar world" narrative suggests
- Kotkin underestimated how quickly the West would snap back and rediscover its power
- Zelensky's courageous decision to stay in Kyiv was pivotal; had he fled it could have been disastrous like Afghanistan
- The US and West rallied to support Ukraine's self-defense, though more gradually than ideal
Counteroffensive Analysis Part 2
Continuing the thread analysing a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia:
- Advantageous to start breakthroughs in 3-4 directions at once, avoiding head-on fights in urban areas
- Key directions: Polohy, Orikhiv, Hulyaipole towards Tokmak and Melitopol
- Russians likely have dense defences of trenches, mines, fortifications
- Sappers will need to clear gaps in minefields for tanks and infantry to break through
- Artillery and drones used to suppress Russian defenders
- Aviation less important; helicopters key for medevac, resupply, comms
- Liberating certain key towns like Polohy, Molochansk will be critical to offensive success
Wrap Up
Jonathan appreciates viewers "hanging out" and asks them to like, subscribe, share and hit the bell icon. He plugs his new book "Aliens and Religion: Where Two Worlds Collide" released on Star Wars day. The book examines how discovering intelligent alien life could impact world religions and the non-religious from a philosophical and psychological perspective. He will be doing live streams to discuss it further.
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