Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231103a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Elon, we are here."
Hello Team!
Jonathan reviews the latest Ukraine General Staff figures for Russian losses, noting it has been another difficult day for the Russians. Key losses include:
- 850 personnel
- 24 tanks
- 24 APVs (armoured personnel vehicles)
- 36 artillery systems
- 4 MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems)
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Justifying the figures
To justify the General Staff figures, Jonathan looks at data from Andrew Perpetually which shows Russian losses are around 3 times higher than Ukrainian losses. While the Ukrainians have lost some equipment like BMP-1 IFVs and a Bradley, the Russians are losing tanks (T-72s, T-80s) and IFVs (BMP-2s, BTRs) at a much higher rate, with many being destroyed by Ukrainian FPV drones.
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Vuhlehirsk and Marinka
The Russians have suffered heavy equipment losses trying to assault Ukrainian positions near Vuhlehirsk and Marinka in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade has destroyed at least 18 Russian vehicles, including 8 tanks and 3 MTLBs. Jonathan questions the Russian tactics, calling it "the definition of insanity".
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Losses at Mykolaiv airbase
Wreckage of 3 Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jets destroyed by Russian Lancet loitering munitions at Mykolaiv airbase has been identified. The MiGs were armed with R-27 air-to-air missiles, indicating they were operational. Jonathan expresses frustration at the Ukrainians keeping active jets close to the front lines and allowing Russian drones to operate with impunity.
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Overnight drone attacks
Russia launched a heavy drone attack overnight, with almost 40 drones targeting Ukraine. Only 24 out of 38 drones were shot down, a lower interception rate than usual. Kharkiv, Lviv and Odesa regions were hit, with fires and damage to civilian infrastructure like a shelter for displaced people. The attack on Lviv, in western Ukraine, is concerning as it shows Russian drones can cross the entire country.
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ATACMS launches and Crimean strikes
Ukraine is still launching ATACMS missiles during the day, likely without GPS guidance to avoid Russian jamming. Rebar claims Russian forces shot down Ukrainian Neptune and Storm Shadow missiles targeting Crimea, as well as two Ukrainian aircraft, using MiG-31s, S-400s and an A-50 early warning plane. However, Jonathan questions the veracity of these claims.
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Crimean bridge status
A Ukrainian official stated that while the Crimean bridge remains a legitimate military target, destroying it is unnecessary as not all Russian supplies go across it. The bridge's structural integrity is compromised from previous attacks. Jonathan speculates Ukraine may be leaving it intact as an "off-ramp" for a potential Russian withdrawal from Crimea.
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Elon Musk's claims on insurgency
Elon Musk claimed there is no anti-Russian insurgency in occupied areas of Ukraine, implying the current front lines could become permanent. Ukrainian partisan groups like Yellow Ribbon refuted this, posting photos from Luhansk, Melitopol and Makiivka with the message "Elon, we are here." Jonathan criticizes Musk for spreading misinformation and not researching the numerous partisan activities he has reported on.
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Kyiv council website hacked
Pro-Russian hackers breached the Kyiv city council website, posting a threatening message to Zelensky with his photo. The site is currently offline.
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Wrap up
Jonathan signs off, asking viewers to like, subscribe and share the video.
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