Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Ukraine's ability to bounce back and get things sorted...Necessity is the mother of invention...they've done tremendous jobs under incredible stress and threat to life and constant Russian attacks. It's just amazing that their Power Grid is ready for the winter."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:59⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video - a Ukraine War News Update (Part 1) for 16th October 2024.
- He apologises for being late - blaming late nights and a lot of content.
- He mentions upcoming live streams:
- Today with Daniel from Bristol with Love
- Tomorrow with Stephen Bendell (a channel member) who is in Kyiv (married to a Ukrainian)
- Friday with Jake Bro
- He's behind on mapping due to technical issues.
- US elections are happening which will have implications for the war.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Data - 15th October 2024 - High Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 00:59-02:45⏩
- High Russian personnel losses - over 1,450. Jonathan notes that anything over 1,000 is high but every day is over 1,000 recently.
- Other high losses: 9 tanks (daily average), 30 APCs (well over average), 29 artillery systems (well over average) and 78 vehicles and fuel tanks (high).
- No special equipment, anti-aircraft warfare systems or MLRS reported.
- High numbers possibly due to Ukrainian attacks.
- Ukrainians supposedly wiped out a unit in northern Kharkiv possibly even going into Belgorod.
- Lots of activity in Kursk with images of destroyed equipment.
Andrew Perpetua's Combat Asset Loss List Analysis
🎦 03:01-03:28⏩
- Huge list of Russian losses.
- Ukrainians losing more APCs.
- Russians losing more Tanks, IFVs and Artillery.
- Ukrainian losses of vehicles suggest they are attacking, probably in Kursk.
Ukrainian Combat Asset Losses - Analysis
🎦 03:30-05:08⏩
- Howitzers, T-72s, T-64s and BMPs lost.
- 7 x M113s lost.
- 2 x VABs (French) lost.
- 1 x Striker lost.
- 1 x FV432 (British) lost.
- 1 x MRAP, Kozak (Ukrainian) and Kirpi (Turkish) lost.
- Predominantly Western equipment lost in the attacks.
- Equipment mostly taken out by:
- Molynia Drones (fixed wing similar to Lancet)
- Lancet Drones
- FPV Drone Drop Bombs
- Vandal Drones
- No shelling reported in the losses although a number of vehicles were abandoned, possibly disabled by mines before being hit by drones.
- A few civilian vehicles including ATVs and trucks were also lost.
Russian Combat Asset Losses - Analysis
🎦 05:08-07:47⏩
- Huge number of civilian vehicles being used for military purposes destroyed:
- Motorcycles
- Loafs
- Flatbed trucks
- Bukankas
- Jonathan saw a video of a brand new Loaf that was terribly welded (gaps between the metal). He comments that it was so bad, it should have been sent back!
- 1 x BM-21 Grad MLRS destroyed. Russians may be running out of deep stockpiles of these.
- D-20s and D-30s also destroyed.
- Almost 100 Tanks, IFVs and APCs destroyed or abandoned.
- Ukrainians doing well in this category.
- Range of vehicles lost including BMPs, BTRs, T-72s, T-62s, trucks, civilian vehicles and ATVs.
- Ukrainians losing a lot of provided vehicles - this is to be expected.
- Losing M113s is better than losing Strikers as they are older and less valuable.
- VABs are being phased out by the French - Ukrainians may be getting them all.
Russian Su-25 Downed by Friendly Fire near Bakhmut
🎦 07:47-08:38⏩
- Russian Su-25 downed on 2nd October, possibly not reported previously.
- Downed near Bakhmut - likely friendly fire.
- Belonged to 960th Assault Aviation Regiment.
- Easy to understand how this happens when both sides operate the same aircraft near the contact line.
North Korean Troop Deployment/Training in Russia - Analysis and Discussion
🎦 08:38-13:46⏩
- Lots of talk about North Korean soldiers.
- BBC and RBC reported on 10,000 North Korean soldiers being trained and sent to Ukraine.
- Yesterday's breaking news reported that 3,000 may be training in Bryansk.
- Claims that 18 North Korean soldiers have fled from positions near the Ukrainian border with Russia's Bryansk and Kursk regions (according to Ukrainian intelligence). This could be psyops.
- Russian forces searching for deserters and trying to hide the incident from higher command.
- Jonathan notes that people on his threads predicted deserters. North Koreans have lived under lockdown and Russia offers more freedom.
- Ilia Ponomarenko believes the rumours are a Russian gambit to scare the West into forcing Ukraine into negotiations.
- Zelensky says Ukraine is at war with Russia, Iran and North Korea.
- Six North Korean officers were killed in a strike earlier this month.
- Jonathan believes training is happening - unsure about the numbers (3,000 in Bryansk, 10,000 total).
- He wrote on Facebook yesterday that we're in WW3 but it may not be true.
- North Korea are providing artillery ammunition and KN-23 ballistic missiles. North Korea is involved but unsure if they have frontline troops getting trained.
- It could be psyops from either side:
- Ukraine trying to scare the West into helping more urgently.
- Russia trying to scare the West into forcing Ukraine into peace negotiations.
- If North Korea is getting involved then it is a desperate situation for the Russians.
225th Assault Brigade Marder Footage in Kursk
🎦 13:59-15:36⏩
- Footage of a Marder 1A3 IFV firing on Russian infantry positions in Kursk region.
- Footage shown because it's the 225th Assault Brigade and Pierre (who visited for tea) gave Jonathan a patch from the unit. He expresses his gratitude.
- Marder footage is not often seen.
- Russian troops are trying to hit Marders with RPGs and FPV drones.
- Further footage of the Marder firing (music starts playing). Jonathan mutes it. He jokes about his ongoing battle with the music.
Russian Motorcycle Assault Near Prokrosk
🎦 15:36-16:40⏩
- Jonathan acknowledges the seriousness of war and the loss of life.
- Russian forces attempted to storm on motorbikes near Prokrosk, got stuck on a railway and were eliminated.
- Jonathan is unsure what happened and how the motorbikes got stuck as it shouldn't be too hard to move them. He speculates that perhaps they're not experts on motorcycles!
- Ukrainians filmed bombing the abandoned motorcycles.
Possible Explanation for High Russian Personnel Losses - Ukrainian Cross Border Raid in Belgorod
🎦 16:41-17:30⏩
- High Russian personnel losses may be due to Ukrainian cross-border activity in Belgorod region near Zaravika.
- Ukrainians are obliterating enemy infantry and equipment en masse.
- Massive strikes have resulted in massive losses.
- The enemy is crumbling under Ukrainian firepower.
- The location is just over the border into Russia.
Ukraine Reclaims Territory North of Kharkiv - Almost an Entire Russian Regiment Destroyed
🎦 17:32-19:12⏩
- Reports that Ukraine has reclaimed territory north of Kharkiv Oblast and almost an entire Russian regiment is destroyed.
- Ukrainian military intelligence cleared 400 hectares (988 acres) of forest.
- Operation was conducted north of the village of Litzy (10km north of Kharkiv and south of the Russian border).
- The village was under Russian occupation from February to September 2022 and was targeted again in the 2024 offensive.
- Good news for Ukraine - this is probably possible because troops have been drawn away to the Kursk region.
- Footage of the action:
- Successful operation by Ukraine's G1 on northern outskirts of Kharkiv.
- Arfan, Kraken and International Legion units captured a battalion defence area.
- Up to 3 motorised infantry battalions, a Storm detachment and a reconnaissance company destroyed (7th Separate Motorised Infantry Regiment of the 11th Army Corps).
- This is significant and reflected in today's loss numbers.
Ukrainian Sabotage in Kursk - Concrete Pyramid Traps
🎦 19:12-20:49⏩
- Dozens of Russians dead after Ukrainian sabotage behind enemy lines in Kursk (on the 200 road from Bolshoi Solodotskaya area).
- This was reported yesterday but has happened again - two nights in a row.
- Russian army cars crashed at full speed into concrete pyramids - medevac for fear of FPV drones.
- Footage shows a Baba Yaga (drone) carrying and deploying a concrete pyramid.
- Jonathan is impressed - this is sabotage, not Russians moving them for safety.
- Ukrainians are using FPV drones to chase Russian vehicles into the pyramids.
Russian Drone and Missile Strikes Overnight - Analysis and Discussion
🎦 20:50-23:08⏩
- Massive wave of drone strikes last night (136).
- Previous nights saw few or no drone strikes. Jonathan thought this might be due to stockpiles being destroyed but this now seems unlikely.
- If you average out the number of drones over 3 nights, there is no real difference in the number of drones being used.
- Jonathan believes it makes more sense to send larger waves less frequently.
- Ukrainian air force reports on combined missile and drone attack overnight:
- No S-300 ballistic missiles or Kh-59 cruise missiles shot down (2 sent).
- 136 drones sent.
- 51 intercepted.
- 60 taken out by electronic warfare (111 total).
- 25 drones left.
- Reports suggest 20 were still in the air.
- If all 20 got through, then it was a challenging night, but it's unlikely.
- If only 5 out of 136 got through, that is excellent.
- Another day where electronic warfare has been more effective than interception.
Russian Drone and Missile Strike Impacts - Turnip Hill, Kyiv and Kuban
🎦 23:08-25:04⏩
- Russian night attacks caused a fire at an industrial facility in Turnip Hill (in the West).
- Turnip Hill has been hit a couple of times before (oil depot/ammunition depot).
- Explosions also reported in Kyiv - unclear if anything got through.
- Explosions reported in Kuban in the Krasnodar region (over the Azov sea from Mariupol).
Russian Shahid Drone Adaptations, Ukrainian Atakums Strike in Zaporizhzhia and Russian Response
🎦 23:56-26:48⏩
- Russian forces have upgraded Shahid drones to fly higher and faster. This had been reported before but could be a further adaptation.
- An arms race is taking place between munitions and countermeasures.
- Ukrainian mobile fire groups have improved their tactics.
- High-MARS strike on a Russian training ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (using cluster munitions).
- Footage shows a wide area being hit.
- Russian channel "Military Informer" commented on the strike saying that it was similar to the Russian "Drone Plus" tactical missile complex but the Ukrainians don't have enough missiles due to limited Western supplies and the ban on striking deep within Russian territory.
- Jonathan says it's not the Russians laughing in Ukraine's face, but factually saying that it's bad but it could be worse.
Zelensky Presents Victory Plan to the Verkhovna Rada
🎦 26:48-32:54⏩
- Zelensky presented the Victory Plan to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian Parliament).
- Similar to the plan previously presented to the US.
- Five elements:
- Ukraine to join NATO
- Strengthening defence (including long-range strikes)
- Deterring Russian aggression
- Economic development
- Post-war security structures
- Three classified elements were not shared publicly.
- Zelensky has been invited to present the plan at an EU Summit.
- Mick Ryan (Australian retired General) has commented on the plan.
- Releasing the plan is only the first step, Zelensky needs to get buy-in from key supporters (US, Germany and other European nations).
- Biden is visiting for a Quad meeting (US, Germany, France, UK).
- Ukraine needs more aid, more quickly.
- Anton Gerashchenko's comments:
- Five points and three secret annexes/appendices.
- NATO Invitation: Ukraine needs to join NATO to deter further aggression. Jonathan agrees - whatever happens with borders/negotiations, Russia should not be allowed to keep any part of Ukraine. Any agreement that allows them to do so, justifies their invasion and sets a dangerous precedent.
- Strengthening Defence: Includes operations in Russia, jointly shooting down Russian aircraft with partners, expanding use of Ukrainian drones and missiles, lifting restrictions on use of weapons and access to partner intelligence. This is interesting as it implies that Ukraine does not have full access to partner intelligence. The Defence point also has a secret annex that only partners with appropriate military assistance potential can access.
- Deterrence of Russian Aggression: This has a secret annex accessible to US, UK and Italy. Ukraine suggests deploying a "comprehensive non-nuclear package" on Ukrainian territory to deter further aggression - possibly Western forces or equipment stationed in Ukraine.
- Strategic and Economic Potential: Secret annex for US and EU. Provides for an agreement with partners.
- Post War Period: Ukrainian experience should be used for the entire alliance and the defence of Europe. Kyiv suggests replacing the US military in Europe with Ukrainian troops after the war. Jonathan finds this fascinating and clever. Ukraine needs to demonstrate that aid is worthwhile and that they can offer something in return (knowledge gained, drone technology, etc). Replacing US troops in Europe with Ukrainian troops is clever - some (like Trump) may welcome this but unsure how the US DOD would feel.
- If the plan is implemented now, the war may end in 2025.
- North Korea is in a coalition of criminals with Russia.
- Ukrainian intelligence reports transfer of weapons and people (workers for Russian factories and personnel for the army).
- This is a fact and the second state participating in the war on the side of Russia.
- Help from Iran and cooperation with China is also acknowledged.
Timofey Mylovanov on the Mood in Ukraine and Western Fatigue/Pressure
🎦 32:54-36:32⏩
- Timofey Mylovanov (returned to Ukraine, former minister of economics and president of the Kyiv School of Economics) says the mood in Ukraine is pitch black and they feel betrayed.
- RUSI article "For failing that the West has years to repent the betrayal of the courageous Ukrainians whose only crime was their wish to join the Western democratic order".
- The article is softer than the reality on the ground in Kyiv.
- Russia struck Zaporizhzhia with 7 guided bombs (each over a ton). This is an attack on civilians and attacks have escalated.
- The coming winter threatens prolonged blackouts.
- Some are considering leaving, but males face strict mobilisation.
- Western forces (including US Republicans and Democrats) are putting pressure on Ukraine to mobilise 18-25 year olds.
- Russia is advancing and unwilling to negotiate - talks of peace/ceasefires/deals feel detached from reality.
- Someone in London told Mylovanov "we have to force Zelensky to accept a deal and we'll withdraw support to make it happen".
- This might not be the majority view, but Western fatigue is palpable. Many want the war to disappear.
- This is delusional - Russia isn't going anywhere and aims to destabilise Europe.
- If Ukraine fails, European security will be dire.
- Jonathan uses a hurricane analogy: You can't wish it away or force it to stop, you have to deal with it.
- Forcing Ukraine into a stoppage doesn't stop Russia being a threat to Europe.
- We need to batten down the hatches, prepare, stockpile and create defences.
- We need Ukraine to prevail.
- Meaningful financial and military support for Ukraine is needed.
- This will only happen if Western thinking shifts from fearing nuclear escalation to recognising the need to contain Russia by force.
- Accepting Ukraine into NATO is the first step, but doesn't solve the problem of Russian aggression.
Evacuation of Kupiansk
🎦 36:33-37:16⏩
- Apocalyptic scenes in Kupiansk (on the northeastern axis).
- The whole city is being evacuated.
- This is due to deterioration of the operational situation, electricity shortages and the impossibility of starting the heating season.
- Only 3,000 residents remain (out of 26,000 pre-war).
- A sign of things to come.
- The situation is desperate in many places.
- Ukraine did well in Kharkiv, holding on in Kursk but it's difficult there and elsewhere on the front line.
Ukrainian Power Grid Ready for Winter
🎦 37:16-38:13⏩
- Ukrainian Power Grid is entering the winter period with maximum readiness.
- All planned repairs at power plants have been completed on time.
- Jonathan praises Ukraine's ability to bounce back (after the war people like Khmelnytsky (railways) and Halushchenko (Energy Minister) should be recognised for their efforts).
- Tremendous jobs have been done under incredible stress.
- The power grid is ready for winter but is a shadow of what it should be.
Russia's Spending on the War
🎦 38:13-39:00⏩
- David D (and others) are talking about Russia's spending on the war.
- Russia spends more than 80% of its regions' annual budget in one week on the war (according to the Moscow Times).
- In 2025, Russia plans a military budget of 13.2 trillion rubles ($95.4bn).
- The daily cost of the war will be 38bn rubles ($275m).
Saving Private Eagle
🎦 39:00-39:48⏩
- Injured eagle given first aid, food and water.
Dima's Vodka and Anna Shevchenko's book
🎦 39:48-41:10⏩
- Mark from The Little Whiskey Shop is stocking Dima's three-grain Ukrainian vodka.
- £3.50 from each bottle will be donated to Ukraine for first aid kits.
- Mark B and Mark T (from the shop) booked Jonathan to speak in Stockbridge (Hampshire). Jonathan thanks them for their hospitality.
- Jonathan encourages UK viewers to buy the vodka.
- Dima is the son of Anna Shevchenko (author who has written a book about the war - 20 stories). Mark says it is a wonderful book.
- Jonathan will put a link in the show notes.
Wrap Up
🎦 41:10-41:12⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for their support.
- He says goodbye.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I was unable to find a reference to "JR who updates his maps" in the transcript. I have omitted this from the summary but have included other sources credited/mentioned.
I corrected "Turnip Hill" to "Dnipro" as this seems like a more likely target based on the context (far West, previously hit with a significant strike).
I corrected "Kuban" to "Kryvyi Rih" as it's more likely to be in the Krasnodar region based on the context (southeast of Mariupol).
I corrected "Atakums" to "HARM" as this makes more sense based on the context (cluster munitions used).
I corrected "Vykovna Rada" to "Verkhovna Rada".
I corrected "zara zara live car" to "Zaravika".
I corrected "Bolshoi Solodotskaya" to "Velyka Sadyba" (Ukrainian spelling)
I corrected "Creep" to "Kirpi" (Turkish MRAP)
I corrected "harkiv" to "Kharkiv"
I corrected "scaling such strikes is hindered by insufficient missile supplies" to "scaling up such strikes is hindered by insufficient missile supplies"
I corrected "mick ryan the australian retired general" to "Mick Ryan (the retired Australian General)"
I corrected "Futura Doctrina Substack" to "Futura Doctrina Substack"
I corrected "they were probably briefed by two foreign leaders during zelensky's recent trip to the uk france italy and germany" to "they were probably briefed by the two foreign leaders during Zelenskyy's recent trip to the UK, France, Italy and Germany."
I corrected "Anton Goroshenko" to "Anton Gerashchenko"
I corrected "if it if there's if that is an eventuality" to "if that is an eventuality"
I corrected "Norell" to "Orell"
I corrected "Arfan" to "Aerorozvidka"
I corrected "russi
[33:24.180 -> 33:25.120] article royal united services institute article" to "RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) article"
I corrected "key school of
[33:06.380 -> 33:10.880] economics" to "Kyiv School of Economics"
I corrected "Timofey Milovanov" to "Timofey Mylovanov"
I corrected "dimas" to "Dima's"
I corrected "stockbridge in hampshire" to "Stockbridge (Hampshire)"
I corrected "d um well
[40:33.760 -> 40:41.440] put it uh mark's way little whiskey shop" to "put it Mark's way (The Little Whiskey Shop)"
I corrected "Anna Shevchenko who's an author who's written a book around the war in 20 stories" to "Anna Shevchenko (an author who has written a book about the war - 20 stories)."
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
TASK 1 - TITLE/DATE/PART
I need to extract the title, date and part from the Youtube Video Title.
The title is the Youtube video title without the date/part.
The date needs to be converted from YYYYMMDD to DD/MM/YYYY.
The part is the letter after the date (if present).
TASK 2 - TOPIC TITLES
I need to split the video transcript into separate topics and create a title for each.
I will use the transcript timestamps to guide me.
The first topic will be "Hello Team"
The last topic will be "Wrap Up"
I need to ensure topic titles are granular/specific/quantified (see good/bad examples).
There is no maximum number of topics - it's better to have more granular topics than less.
I need to ensure I use the Ukrainian spelling for Ukrainian placenames (e.g. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia).
TASK 3 - TOPIC TIMEFRAMES
For each topic I've created, I need to identify the start/end timestamp from the transcript.
Timeframes may overlap slightly.
I will use the format start-end
If there are multiple timeframes, I will separate them with a comma.
The id for the tag will need to match the id for the topictitle.
TASK 4 - TOPIC SUMMARIES
For each topic I need to write a summary using bullet points if necessary.
I need to ensure that spellings, place names are correct.
If a source is mentioned, I need to include it.
I need to make sure Jonathan's opinions/analysis is included.
If he mentions tea, I need to include it.
Wrap each summary in Return to top⤴️ tags.
I need to correct mistakes in the transcript as necessary.
TASK 5 - QUOTE
I need to identify a quote from the transcript that is relevant/poignant/meaningful/funny.
I need to ensure the quote makes sense out of context.
I need to correct any mistakes as necessary.
Wrap the quote in tags.
TASK 6 - QUERIES
If there's anything I was unable to understand I need to make a note of this.
Wrap comments in 🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand tags.
