Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News, F-16 Analysis

"The longer they can train for, the better. Obviously Ukraine has needs that are very urgent now, but a lot of those needs are um not ones that F-16 is ideally placed to respond to..."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:07⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics video, a second part of his Ukraine War news update for 20th June 2024.

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JDAM Correction - Home on Jam Guidance

🎦 00:07-03:05⏩

Jonathan issues a correction regarding his analysis of JDAMs, clarifying their functionality based on feedback from viewer Simon Moorcroft. He explains that the "home-on-jam" capability doesn't jam the jammer but transforms the bomb into an anti-radiation missile, targeting the jamming source itself. This adaptability, he notes, makes it a significant development in the arms race. Jonathan expresses gratitude to Simon and others for pointing out the error.

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US to Divert Patriot Missile Orders to Ukraine

🎦 03:05-09:26⏩

Jonathan discusses a Financial Times report stating that the US will prioritize Ukraine for all Patriot missile systems and interceptors, halting orders for other countries. This move, he argues, highlights the gravity of the situation and the US's commitment to supporting Ukraine. He criticizes the Biden administration for not acting sooner, especially given the upcoming 2024 elections and potential shift in US policy. The urgency stems from Ukraine's need for air defenses, not only for urban protection but also for supporting offensive operations. He emphasizes the significance of Biden's statement, "Everything we have is going to go to Ukraine until their needs are met." Jonathan also notes the challenges faced by European countries like Poland and Romania, who rely on Patriot systems for their security. He concludes by stressing the significance of this development, stating that Ukraine urgently needs these systems for both offensive and defensive capabilities.

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South Korea to Review Arms Supply to Ukraine

🎦 09:26-11:16⏩

Jonathan reports on South Korea's potential shift in policy, with the country now considering directly supplying arms to Ukraine. He highlights the significance of this development, particularly in light of North Korea's arms provisions to Russia. He emphasizes South Korea's capacity as a major arms manufacturer and exporter. Jonathan expresses hope for a swift policy change, as direct procurement from South Korea would significantly benefit Ukraine. He contrasts this with South Korea's previous indirect support through backfilling US supplies, highlighting the greater impact of direct procurement.

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Germany Considers Supplying Ukraine with Nomads Air Defence Systems

🎦 11:16-12:22⏩

Jonathan discusses a report from German media outlet Hartpunkt indicating that Germany is considering supplying Ukraine with the Nomads air defence system. This Norwegian system, partially manufactured in Germany, could see its foreign-made components replaced by German ones, particularly if Germany solely finances the deal. Jonathan highlights Germany's potential willingness to support Ukraine with advanced air defense capabilities and their efforts to potentially encourage broader financial contributions from other nations.

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F-16s for Ukraine - Summer Deployment

🎦 12:22-23:46⏩

Jonathan discusses a Guardian report on the potential deployment of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. The report cites Dutch Air Force Commander General Arnoud Stoltman, who expects the jets to be operational in Ukraine by summertime. Jonathan delves into the complexities of the F-16 training program, emphasizing the extensive training required not only for pilots but also for ground crews. He highlights delays caused by infrastructure limitations in Ukraine and the comprehensive training regime necessary for maintaining the aircraft. Despite criticism over delays, Jonathan acknowledges the challenging nature of transitioning from Soviet-era aircraft to the more advanced F-16s. He emphasizes that rushing the process could lead to costly mistakes and jeopardize both pilots' lives and valuable aircraft. He includes an excerpt from a Ward Carrol interview with Justin Bronk, where they delve into the complexities of training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. Bronk highlights that it's more challenging to retrain experienced Ukrainian pilots on F-16s than training new pilots altogether. Jonathan emphasizes that Ukrainian pilots, accustomed to Soviet-era tactics and aircraft, face a steep learning curve in adapting to NATO's doctrine and the F-16's capabilities. He emphasizes that the F-16, while an improvement over Ukraine's existing fleet, doesn't necessarily guarantee air superiority against Russian aircraft. Jonathan stresses that deploying the F-16s prematurely, without adequate training and support, could overburden Ukraine's ground-based air defenses and make them vulnerable to Russian attacks.

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Viewer Comments: F-16 Training Challenges and Biden's Role

🎦 23:46-33:16⏩

Jonathan addresses viewer comments on F-16 training, emphasizing the complexities and resource-intensive nature of the program. He reads a comment from "John Oliver", a viewer, highlighting the extensive training pathway for US fighter pilots, from high school ROTC to specialized craft training. This comment underscores the rigorous selection process and the years of dedicated training involved in producing skilled fighter pilots. Jonathan agrees with John Oliver's assessment that blaming President Biden for delays in F-16 deployment is simplistic, as the training process is far more intricate than often perceived. He emphasizes that integrating Ukrainian pilots into an already demanding training schedule presents logistical and scheduling challenges. Jonathan acknowledges that while more support for Ukraine is always desirable, oversimplifying a complex issue by solely blaming the US president is counterproductive. He stresses the need to understand the complexities of military training and procurement processes before assigning blame.

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Russia to Finance Ukraine's Defence

🎦 33:16-34:06⏩

Jonathan reports on the decision to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's defense. British Ambassador to Ukraine, Martin Harris, states that this is only the first step and advocates for confiscating all frozen Russian assets. Harris outlines a plan to leverage profits from these assets to secure loans for Ukraine, effectively making Russia pay for its own opposition. Arseny Yatsenyuk, head of KSF, emphasizes that this move demonstrates the G7's commitment to holding Russian assets and supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary. Jonathan welcomes this development as a positive step by the G7.

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US Authorizes Ukraine to Strike Russian Military Positions

🎦 34:06-34:48⏩

Jonathan clarifies the extent of US authorization for Ukraine to strike Russian territory, stating that Ukraine has been granted permission to target Russian military positions within the Kharkiv and Sumy regions using US-supplied weapons. He expresses disappointment that this authorization doesn't extend further, viewing it as overly cautious. Jonathan reiterates his stance that Jake Sullivan's influence might be a factor in this limited approach.

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Concerns Over Potential Reduction in Military Aid to Ukraine

🎦 34:48-37:15⏩

Jonathan expresses concern over potential threats to continued military aid for Ukraine. He discusses the upcoming French parliamentary elections, where there's a risk of the far-right Rassemblement National gaining significant ground. This, according to French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, could lead to a reduction in aid to Ukraine. Jonathan worries about a similar trend in other countries, citing the rise of pro-Russian sentiment within the AfD party in Germany, potentially threatening the ruling coalition's support for Ukraine. He also points to the US, where the return of Trump-aligned MAGA Republicans could jeopardize future aid. Jonathan voices serious concerns about the potential for domestic political shifts in major countries towards a pro-Russia stance, posing a significant challenge to continued support for Ukraine.

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Wrap Up

🎦 37:15-42:06⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He shares a song created by a viewer, "Rizzards World", using AI, expressing mixed feelings due to the song praising him but acknowledging its quality. He signs off, promising to feature another viewer-created song by "JR" in the next day's video.

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