Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
“What kind of psycho wants Russia to prevail is my question.”
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a frontline update, mentioning the map is courtesy of JR and reflects the past 24-36 hours. He acknowledges the video will be concise due to time constraints. He mentions being near the frontline and experiencing explosions the previous night. He addresses Russian trolls in his comments, calling out a "Mike Willis" specifically. Jonathan emphasizes his proximity to the conflict, stating he is "genuinely just a few kilometres from the front line."
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Elon Musk's Comments
🎦 01:40-02:35⏩
Jonathan criticizes Elon Musk's recent statement about the war, where Musk claims there have been "no changes" in the frontline for a year, resulting in many deaths. Jonathan challenges Musk's view, highlighting the need to support Ukraine in reclaiming its territory. He argues against any suggestion of letting Russia "prevail," quoting a commenter named "Tataragami" who emphasizes the dire consequences of Ukraine falling under Russian control, citing historical events like the Red Terror and artificial famine.
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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front
🎦 02:35-04:34⏩
- Jonathan begins analyzing the frontline, stating he'll focus on map changes rather than in-depth ISW analysis.
- Novovojene: Ukrainians have potentially pushed back after recent Russian advances, with the situation in the broader area, including Raya Rodka and Novoherivka, remaining dynamic.
- Nadia/Novoselivske: Relatively quiet, with previous Russian attempts to push towards Barova repelled.
- Torske-Terny Salient: Currently stable.
- Bilohorivka: Quiet after a period of intense fighting.
Bakhmut Front
🎦 04:34-07:02⏩
- North of Bakhmut: Russians making gains, with confirmation from Andrew Perpetua of their movement along the "road of life" near Kramova, pushing towards Chasiv Yar.
- Popivskaya: Syriac Maps claims Russian control of most of the area, placing them 1.6 kilometers from Chasiv Yar.
- Ivanivske: Russians attempting to encircle the town.
- South of Bakhmut: Jonathan notes discrepancies between maps but highlights potential Ukrainian gains near Klishchiivka and adjustments to the Russian defensive line near Kurdyumivka.
Avdiivka Front
🎦 07:02-11:13⏩
- Avdiivka Under Pressure: Jonathan describes the situation as "tough" for Ukrainian forces, facing pressure from both north and south.
- Terrain Analysis: He reflects on the challenges of attacking across open fields, highlighting the vulnerability to artillery and the lack of cover.
- Russian Tactics: Jonathan believes house-to-house fighting in Avdiivka suits the Russian strategy of using overwhelming firepower followed by infantry advances, similar to their tactics in Bakhmut.
- Northern Avdiivka: Syriac Maps reports Russian advances along Khrushchev Street near the railway hospital, with their forces crossing the railway and reaching a construction plant on Tmeryadeva Street.
- Southern Avdiivka: Russians have restarted advances, capturing trenches and isolating some Ukrainian positions.
- Syriac Maps Assessment: The pro-Russian source claims a "worrying" situation for Ukrainian troops, suggesting withdrawal without heavy losses is unlikely and placing hope in reinforcements.
- Reinforcements: Jonathan questions whether reinforcements are meant for a counteroffensive or a safer withdrawal.
- Khmelnytskyi: Syriac Maps notes ongoing fighting and Russian FAB (Fuel-Air Explosive) strikes on Ukrainian positions.
- 3rd Assault Brigade: No Report indicates this brigade, recently equipped with Western hardware like Bradley IFVs, may have been redeployed to Avdiivka. Jonathan confirms this, citing sources.
Donetsk Southern Outskirts
🎦 11:50-13:41⏩
- South of Avdiivka: Russians making small gains near the Saskia Ahota restaurant, aligning with Syriac Maps and Deep State Map analysis. Larger Russian gains reported in a field between Opytne and the aforementioned restaurant.
- Mariinka: Jonathan mentions a Ukrainian soldier he met who was on leave after fighting in Mariinka.
- Southwest of Donetsk: Syriac Maps describes a Russian push towards Pobeda, with Russian forces retaking a forest belt previously controlled by Ukraine.
- Pobeda's Importance: Jonathan highlights its strategic value in holding back a Russian advance south towards Kostyantynivka and the vulnerability of Pobeda after Mariinka's fall.
Vuhledar Front
🎦 13:41-14:12⏩
- North of Mykilske: Andrew Perpetua reports Russian gains in a treeline, advancing towards the mine northwest of Vuhledar.
- Jonathan acknowledges these gains are concerning but not critical.
Western Donetsk Front
🎦 14:06-14:35⏩
- Velyka Novosilka, Novodonetske, Robotyne: No changes reported.
- Robotyne: Jonathan expresses surprise at the strength of the Ukrainian defense in the area, preventing further Russian advances.
Dnipro River - Kherson Front
🎦 14:27-17:12⏩
- High Activity: Jonathan describes the area as "very active," experiencing numerous explosions.
- Krynky Bridgehead: Syriac Maps reports the situation is clearer, with the Ukrainian bridgehead slightly expanded after a failed Russian assault on the town center. However, the Ukrainians remain constrained due to Russian artillery fire.
- Jonathan's Assessment: He believes Krynky's fall is likely due to the difficulty of reinforcing and supplying the Ukrainian troops across the river, suggesting the bridgehead's purpose might have shifted from a large-scale offensive to pinning down Russian forces.
Message to Matt Bishop
🎦 17:12-18:12⏩
Jonathan concludes the update with a personal message to Matt Bishop, a friend and previous guest on his livestreams, who fled Kharkiv at the start of the war. Jonathan sends greetings from Kharkiv, mentioning Matt's Ukrainian wife and family who are now in Australia.
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Wrap up
🎦 18:12-18:12⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking viewers and saying goodbye.
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