Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is a frivolous attack for the narcissistic intentions of a megalomaniacal dictator, Putin. This doesn't need to happen, and yet there's so much death and destruction for the Russians. At some point, they've got to wake up and go, what the frick are we doing? What is going on here?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:18⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATPG of Politics video, a Ukraine War News Update for the 8th of July 2024. He notes that it's a challenging morning for Ukrainians, with significant strikes on Kyiv during rush hour.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:18-02:16⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, highlighting the high numbers: 1200 personnel, 1 aircraft, 16 tanks, 40 armoured personnel vehicles, and 29 artillery systems. He points out the significance of these figures, particularly the sustained losses in artillery and the impact on Russia's ability to wage conventional warfare. He infers from the tank, APV, and personnel losses that Russia is likely pressuring multiple points on the front line.
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War Fatigue and Public Opinion in Russia
🎦 02:16-05:53⏩
Jonathan discusses the exhaustion on both sides of the conflict, with Ukraine facing manpower and equipment shortages while Russia grapples with unsustainable attrition rates and economic strain. He cites reports of Russia resorting to desperate measures like recruiting female prisoners and offering amnesty to criminals in exchange for military service. He highlights a Levada Center poll indicating that 58% of Russians favour a negotiated peace, the highest figure since the war began.
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Economist Report: Staggering Russian Casualties
🎦 05:53-07:35⏩
Jonathan analyses The Economist's report on Russian casualties, estimating between 106,000 and 140,000 killed in action. He compares these figures to previous conflicts like Chechnya and Afghanistan, emphasising the magnitude of the losses. He connects this data to the growing public dissent in Russia and the desire for a negotiated settlement.
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Russian Military Blogger: "Everyone is Dead or Wounded"
🎦 07:35-10:35⏩
Jonathan cites a pro-Russian military blogger, Volt8, who reveals the devastating toll of the war on his personal network, with most of his acquaintances either killed, wounded, or suffering from severe physical and mental health problems. He contrasts the experiences of ordinary Russians with the detached reality of the Kremlin elite, questioning the war's purpose and criticising Putin's leadership.
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Captured Russian Soldier: Overcrowded Hospitals and Brutal Treatment
🎦 10:35-11:31⏩
Jonathan shares the account of a captured Russian soldier who describes overcrowded hospitals in Luhansk and Moscow, overflowing with soldiers who have lost limbs. The soldier also alleges physical abuse from Russian commanders, providing a glimpse into the harsh realities faced by Russian troops.
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Ukrainian Military Successes: Downed Aircraft and Strikes on Melitopol and Voronezh
🎦 11:31-13:38⏩
Jonathan reports on several Ukrainian military successes, including the downing of a Russian Su-25, strikes on an airbase in Melitopol that destroyed a valuable Pantsir S1 air defence system, and a drone strike on an ammunition depot in Voronezh. He presents satellite imagery showing the extent of the damage in Voronezh.
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Debate over Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Airbases and Decoy Tactics
🎦 13:38-15:28⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing debate regarding the effectiveness of Russian strikes on Ukrainian airbases. He notes that some analysts believe Russia may have hit inflatable decoys rather than operational aircraft, citing the presence of white smoke in some of the explosions as potential evidence.
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Intense Fighting and Wildfires in the Kherson Region
🎦 15:28-16:33⏩
Jonathan examines the situation in the Ileski Sands area of Kherson, using FIRMS data to show significant forest fires around Russian positions. He speculates that while the fires pose challenges for both sides, the destruction of Russian ammunition depots and the pressure on their troops could provide Ukraine with an opportunity to capitalise.
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Ukrainian Air Force Tests New Drone Defence Tactics
🎦 16:33-17:35⏩
Jonathan presents footage of a Ukrainian training exercise where a machine gun mounted on a light aircraft successfully shoots down a drone. He commends the Ukrainians for innovating and developing new methods to counter Russian reconnaissance drones.
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Russian Missile Barrage: Widespread Strikes Across Ukraine
🎦 17:35-18:31⏩
Jonathan reports on a massive wave of Russian missile attacks targeting cities across Ukraine, including Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro, and Donetsk Oblast. He describes the air raid sirens sounding throughout the country and the launch of cruise missiles toward the capital.
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Russian Missiles Hit Children's Hospital in Kyiv
🎦 18:31-20:15⏩
Jonathan highlights the devastating impact of the Russian missile strikes on Kyiv, particularly the targeting of the Okhmatdyt National Children's Specialised Hospital. He shows footage of the moment of impact and describes the hospital as the largest of its kind in Ukraine, treating over 20,000 children annually.
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Russia's Propaganda and Blame-Shifting Tactics
🎦 20:15-21:05⏩
Jonathan criticises the Russian government's response to the hospital attack, noting their attempts to shift blame onto Ukrainian air defences. He highlights the absurdity of their claims, pointing out that the missile strike on the hospital was clearly captured on video.
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Zelensky's Response and Horrific Footage from Kyiv
🎦 21:05-22:54⏩
Jonathan shares President Zelensky's condemnation of the Russian missile attacks, describing them as acts of terrorism. He notes Zelensky's appeal for global action to stop the bloodshed. Jonathan also describes the disturbing footage emerging from Kyiv, showing the aftermath of the strikes and the desperate efforts to rescue survivors from the rubble. He reports at least 10 people are dead.
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Outrage over Russian Atrocities and International Condemnation
🎦 22:54-24:38⏩
Jonathan expresses his disgust at the Russian attacks, arguing that any attempt to justify them is morally reprehensible. He shares a tweet that characterises Russian culture as defined by atrocities. He criticises Viktor Orbán for meeting with Putin just days before the hospital bombing and laments the EU's inaction. He highlights a comment from a viewer, Jane Keith, who says "Russians do atrocities".
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Moral Responsibility and the Injustices of Russian Aggression
🎦 24:38-29:13⏩
Jonathan engages with a commenter who attempts to deflect blame from Russia by suggesting the hospital damage was caused by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile. He dismantles this argument, asserting that even if true, the ultimate responsibility lies with Russia for initiating the conflict and launching missiles into a densely populated city during rush hour. He emphasises the distinction between self-defence and aggression, stressing that Ukraine is acting to protect itself from an illegal invasion.
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Strategic Implications: Russian Missiles Could Backfire at NATO Summit
🎦 29:13-31:38⏩
Jonathan argues that Russia’s missile attacks, particularly the hospital strike, are strategically ill-timed. He suggests that the timing, just before a crucial NATO summit, could backfire on Russia by strengthening Western resolve to support Ukraine. He believes that the shocking images of the attacks may galvanise public opinion, particularly in the United States, and bolster support for providing Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of striking Russian airbases. He questions the strategic thinking behind Russia’s actions, noting that a more calculated approach would have been to wait until after the NATO summit.
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Andrew's Loss List: Analysis of Military Equipment Losses
🎦 31:38-34:26⏩
Jonathan reviews "Andrew's Loss List," a compilation of visually confirmed military equipment losses for both sides. He notes that while the list shows near parity in overall losses (28 Russian to 22 Ukrainian), the ratio of combat losses favors Ukraine (14 to 8). He analyses specific losses, including an M1 Abrams tank and a Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicle for Ukraine, and various tanks, artillery pieces, and support vehicles for Russia. He expresses a desire for an even more favorable ratio of losses for Ukraine. He thanks Andrew for his work on the list.
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FSB Claims Foiled Plot to Steal Russian Bomber
🎦 34:26-35:27⏩
Jonathan reports on a claim by the Russian FSB that they foiled a plot to steal a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. According to the FSB, the pilot was offered $2 million to fly the aircraft to an airfield near Zhytomyr but refused. Jonathan expresses skepticism about the veracity of the claim.
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UK Intelligence Report: Russia's Crackdown on Academic Freedom
🎦 35:27-37:42⏩
Jonathan discusses a UK intelligence report highlighting the ongoing crackdown on academic freedom in Russia. He cites the closure of the Faculty of Political Sciences at the European University at St. Petersburg and the investigation of the university for alleged extremism. The report links this to a broader trend of increasing authoritarianism under Putin, particularly since the invasion of Ukraine. He notes the imposition of mandatory courses on “foundations of Russian statehood” and the dismissal of academics critical of the war. He concludes by saying this does not bode well for educational freedom in Russia.
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A Moment of Hope: Russian Soldier Cares for Orphaned Deer
🎦 37:42-38:28⏩
Jonathan ends the video on a positive note by sharing a heartwarming video of a young Russian soldier caring for a newborn deer, likely orphaned due to the war. He expresses hope that the fawn will receive proper care.
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Wrap up
🎦 38:28-38:40⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support, reminding them to take care of themselves.
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