Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I had my COVID jab yesterday, so today I'm unable to move very well at all. It's really affected my multiple sclerosis and my brain is not working very well. So just there are my caveats for all of today's videos."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:49⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the channel and explains that he had his COVID jab yesterday and is therefore feeling under the weather! He mentions that the MS is playing up and his brain isn't working too well! He also mentions that there is a scammer pretending to be him in messages - if someone contacts you asking for something it's a scammer as Jonathan wouldn't do this. Jonathan then goes through the Ukrainian General Staff figures for the previous day (caveat supplied).
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 01:49-02:50⏩
Jonathan reports very high figures again - 1 aircraft (which he will cover later), 1,400 personnel (an incredibly high number), 11 tanks, 43 armoured personnel vehicles, 28 artillery systems, 1 anti-aircraft warfare system, 29 vehicles and fuel tanks and 6 pieces of special equipment.
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Kharkiv Update
🎦 02:55-03:12⏩
Jonathan notes that there are claims that the Russians are losing a lot in the Kharkiv direction but notes that this isn't reflected in visually confirmed losses. He speculates that the losses may be personnel rather than equipment and that the Russians appear to be attacking on foot in this area, possibly to protect their vehicles or because of shortages.
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Oryx Losses
🎦 03:12-08:46⏩
Jonathan reviews the latest visually confirmed equipment losses from Oryx (credit to Andrew Perpetua @AndyAssumption). He notes that the ratios have improved for Ukraine but there have been some challenging days recently. He provides a detailed rundown of both Ukrainian and Russian equipment losses, lamenting the effectiveness of the Lancet drones.
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Russian Aircraft Losses
🎦 08:46-10:23⏩
Jonathan notes that Ukraine claims to have shot down a Ka-52 attack helicopter near Avdiivka and an Su-25 in Donetsk. This follows on from the loss of 3 Russian jets in the previous week.
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Shoot and Scoot?
🎦 10:23-14:26⏩
Jonathan discusses whether the shoot and scoot tactic is still relevant given the widespread use of drones. He notes that the risk of counter-battery fire has reduced but the risk of detection by drones has increased. He speculates that militaries will need to rethink artillery tactics in light of drone warfare.
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Kharkiv Losses in Detail
🎦 14:26-16:13⏩
Jonathan provides a more detailed overview of equipment losses in the Kharkiv area since 10th May, comparing visually confirmed losses from both sides (credit to @UAWeapons). Whilst the figures suggest that Ukraine may have lost more equipment than Russia, Jonathan speculates that Russian personnel losses may be higher.
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Lancet Drone Strikes
🎦 16:13-17:30⏩
Further discussion of the effectiveness of Russian Lancet loitering munition strikes. Jonathan notes that there has been a lot of footage released recently, including strikes on two Bohdana howitzers. He speculates that the longer range of the Lancet is being used to target equipment behind Ukrainian lines in the North.
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Russian Propaganda
🎦 17:30-19:29⏩
Jonathan discusses a segment from Russian state TV (Russia's First Channel) in which a propagandist urges Russian servicemen to "commit suicide" rather than wait to be hit by a drone and claims that killing yourself on the battlefield is not suicide but sacrifice. Jonathan is unimpressed, suggesting that the propagandist should try it for themselves!
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Russian War Crimes
🎦 19:29-20:27⏩
Jonathan reports that Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) has highlighted calls by a Russian war criminal, Alexei Milchakov (co-founder of the Rusich Group which operates within the Wagner Group), for the killing of prisoners of war.
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Steamship Fire
🎦 20:27-20:47⏩
Jonathan reports that the steamship MV Lomonosov has caught fire in the Arkhangelsk region, with 40 firefighters battling the blaze. Jonathan notes that fires in Russia are "insane".
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Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 20:47-25:17⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia launched 18 drones into Ukraine during the night, all of which were shot down. He discusses the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences, which appear to be much better at shooting down drones than missiles. He reports that Ukraine has used ATACMs to strike targets in Luhansk, breaking through Russian air defences (credit to @FaytuksNews). There are also reports that Ukraine has used Tochka-U ballistic missiles (credit to @Osinttechnical), which Russia believed to be exhausted. Jonathan also notes a drone strike on a Russian freight train in the Volgograd region, 470km from the front lines (credit to @SpecialKhersonCat) which is significant for its range.
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Ukrainian Counteroffensive
🎦 25:17-29:24⏩
Jonathan discusses comments made by the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview with the New York Times in which he predicted that Ukraine will be able to stabilise the front line in the next few days. Budanov believes that Russian attacks in the Kharkiv region will continue for 3 or more days before a decisive advance towards Sumy. Jonathan doubts that Russia will attempt to take the city of Sumy but suggests they may look to advance and stretch Ukrainian forces in the area. Jonathan notes reports that Russian soldiers crossing into Kharkiv are engaged in looting.
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Russian MOD Reshuffle
🎦 29:24-35:20⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent Russian MOD reshuffle. Sergei Shoigu has been moved from Defence Minister to head of the Security Council (replacing Patrushev), with Mikhail Mishustin, previously the Minister for Economy, appointed as the new Defence Minister. Jonathan is of the view that this change will benefit Russia as Mishustin's background will enable him to better utilise Russian industry and expedite the production of much needed equipment. Jonathan believes that this strengthens Putin's position, with Patrushev potentially being lined up as a successor. Further purges in the Russian MOD continue.
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Kyiv Terror Plot Foiled
🎦 35:20-37:00⏩
Jonathan discusses a report that the SBU foiled a Russian plot to carry out terrorist attacks in Kyiv on 9th May. Explosives were found in tea packages at construction hypermarkets and in a car near a cafe.
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Wrap Up
🎦 37:00-37:03⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, telling them he is off to work on his mapping and that he will speak to them soon.
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