Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS/ANALYSIS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia's most dangerous jets are parked in the open 100 miles from Ukraine just a bunch of attackams missiles sent at that and you've taken out their fleet of su-34s why why why why why is that not allowed to happen? Goodness gracious. It's so frustrating."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:42⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the update and mentions that this one is a little later than usual because he was having a fascinating live chat with Erland from Turkey, who recently returned from delivering a vehicle to Ukraine. They're planning to have a live stream to discuss his experiences, hopefully with Daniela from Tochny as well, as Erland started a fundraiser.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for 29/06/2024
🎦 00:42-02:15⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses on June 29th, noting that the reported 1,140 personnel lost aligns with the fluctuating daily average observed over the past two weeks. He analyses the significance of specific equipment losses, highlighting that seven tanks are slightly below average, 19 armored personnel vehicles are slightly above average, and 53 artillery systems are about three times the daily average. The loss of two anti-aircraft warfare systems is noteworthy, as these are harder to target. Additionally, 75 vehicles and fuel tanks lost is very high, as is 12 pieces of special equipment.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss List Analysis - Overview
🎦 02:15-03:06⏩
Jonathan highlights the significance of substantial Russian losses in surveillance and communications equipment, noting how this might be overlooked when focusing on combat vehicles. He references Andrew Perpetua's analysis, which initially suggests a 3:1 ratio in favor of Russia (59 Russian losses to 20 Ukrainian) but clarifies that this becomes a more favorable 3:1 ratio when considering combat assets only (22 Russian to 7 Ukrainian).
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Russian Iskander-M Strike on Ukrainian Military Train
🎦 03:06-05:08⏩
Jonathan discusses the concerning incident of a Russian ballistic missile strike on a Ukrainian freight train transporting military equipment, emphasizing the anxiety surrounding this event on social media. The strike, attributed to Iskander missiles, resulted in the destruction of at least one MRAP-type vehicle. While the primary impact affected freight cars carrying goods rather than vehicles, the extent of damage to surrounding vehicles and the nature of the transported items remain uncertain. Jonathan notes that Andrew Perpetua's team has yet to geolocate the footage and include the potentially 14 damaged Russian vehicles seen in the background footage in the official count.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss List Analysis - Ukrainian Losses
🎦 04:02-05:26⏩
Jonathan provides a detailed breakdown of Ukrainian equipment losses based on Andrew Perpetua's list, emphasizing the prevalence of Western-provided vehicles lost, likely due to the depletion of older, Soviet-era equipment. Key losses include a 79K6 Pelican radar system destroyed by a Lancet loitering munition, highlighting the effectiveness of Russian medium-range drones, an AHS Krab and another unspecified SPG, also targeted by Lancet drones, a Bradley IFV, a Humvee, a Senator MRAP, and an unspecified MRAP destroyed in the Iskander-M train strike. Jonathan observes that a significant proportion of Ukrainian losses now consist of Western-provided vehicles, suggesting the gradual depletion of their Soviet-era equipment.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss List Analysis - Russian Losses
🎦 05:26-08:53⏩
Jonathan analyses the positive news of two Russian Tor-M2 and one Buk-M1/M2 air defense systems destroyed by Ukrainian RAM drones, highlighting their effectiveness as Lancet equivalents in the medium-range category. He notes the substantial quantity of surveillance and communication equipment lost by the Russians, possibly indicating the success of a single Ukrainian FPV drone unit or a compilation of footage from multiple units. Drawing upon his conversation with Erland, Jonathan discusses the ongoing electronic warfare challenges faced by both sides, emphasizing their reliance on relatively low-tech methods. He explains that while Ukraine has recently established a dedicated unmanned unit within the government to enhance their electronic warfare capabilities, a pre-existing government unit should already be fulfilling this role. Jonathan speculates about the potential reasons behind this apparent redundancy, suggesting that existing units may lack the personnel to handle the workload effectively, leading individual brigades, battalions, and even smaller units to undertake their own electronic warfare operations. The conversation with Erland reveals that success rates for FPV drones vary, but generally yield positive results. Jonathan concludes the analysis of Russian losses, noting the destruction of a BM-21 Grad MLRS, several unspecified artillery systems, BMP and BTR infantry fighting vehicles, MTLBs, 82mm 2B9 Vasilek automatic mortars, civilian vehicles, and other equipment. He observes that FPV and night vision drones are proving particularly effective for Ukrainian forces.
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David D's Analysis of Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 08:53-11:20⏩
Jonathan presents an anecdote from Twitter user David D (cautioning viewers to approach the claims with a degree of skepticism) who challenges the pro-Russian disinformation spread by accounts like "Aiden" or "Squatsons." These accounts downplay Russian casualties and assert that Russia is maintaining or even expanding its combat capabilities in Ukraine. David D counters this narrative, suggesting that publicly available footage likely represents only a fraction of actual Russian losses. He illustrates this point by revealing that he personally counted nearly 400 visually confirmed Russian combat deaths in a mere 16-hour period on Twitter. Jonathan uses this anecdote to emphasize the implausibility of claims denying the scale of Russian losses, given the volume of evidence circulating online. He argues that even if the Ukrainian General Staff's figures are slightly inflated, David D's independent observations lend credibility to the notion that Russia is experiencing substantial casualties.
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Russian Deployment of Female Prisoners
🎦 11:20-13:30⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent deployment of Russian female prisoners to the front lines, a development previously rumored after reports of recruitment efforts in a women's prison. He questions whether this aligns with the image of a successful military campaign, prompting viewers to consider which hypothesis the available data supports. The first hypothesis posits that Russia is not experiencing significant losses, is easily mobilizing sufficient personnel, and is not facing recruitment challenges. The second hypothesis, contrasting with the first, suggests that Russia is, in fact, facing significant difficulties. The need to recruit female prisoners indicates a depletion of available manpower, highlighting potential issues with recruitment and a dire need for front-line reinforcements. Jonathan challenges viewers to compare the current state of the war with their initial predictions, particularly if those predictions assumed a swift and decisive Russian victory. He argues that the ongoing reliance on grinding assaults for minimal territorial gains, coupled with heavy losses and the recruitment of female prisoners, paints a picture far removed from what one would expect from a successful Russian campaign.
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RAM Drone Footage Shows Destruction of Russian Air Defence Systems
🎦 13:30-14:25⏩
Jonathan highlights footage of Ukrainian RAM drones successfully destroying Russian air defense systems, showcasing their capabilities. This 10-minute compilation reveals the destruction of two Tor-M2 SAM systems, three Pantsir-S1s (though this footage wasn't included due to prior release), and one Buk air defense system. This footage confirms the effectiveness of Ukrainian-made RAM drones, demonstrating their impact on the battlefield and supporting the inclusion of these losses in Andrew Perpetua's list.
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Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade Destroys Russian Equipment Near Kreminna
🎦 14:25-15:05⏩
Jonathan highlights the success of the Ukrainian 63rd Mechanized Brigade near Kreminna, a region where Ukrainian forces are actively counter-attacking and gaining ground. Drone footage captures the destruction of 10 Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, illustrating the effectiveness of drone warfare in this area.
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Footage Shows Unsuccessful Russian Assault on Ukrainian Positions
🎦 15:05-16:38⏩
Jonathan describes compelling footage depicting a poorly executed Russian assault involving two APCs and approximately two dozen troops. The assault is swiftly repelled by a coordinated Ukrainian defense, potentially spearheaded by a Bradley IFV's Bushmaster cannon, supported by drones, artillery, mortars, and small arms fire. This engagement exemplifies the effectiveness of combined arms tactics employed by Ukrainian forces, highlighting their defensive capabilities. The sheer volume of firepower unleashed upon the attacking Russian force, resulting in heavy losses, has led some to label this assault as one of the worst of the war, drawing comparisons to other contenders for this dubious distinction. Jonathan emphasizes the futility of this assault, particularly given the overwhelming defensive capabilities of the Ukrainian forces.
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Ukrainian FPV Drone Destroys Russian Grad MLRS in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
🎦 16:38-17:10⏩
Jonathan discusses footage from the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, showcasing a Ukrainian FPV drone pursuing and destroying a fully loaded Russian Grad multiple rocket launcher equipped with a COP cage for protection. The drone successfully targets the Grad, triggering a massive ammunition detonation. This incident likely corresponds to the destroyed Grad listed in Andrew Perpetua's equipment losses.
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HIMARS Strike Targets Russian Drone Operators in Donetsk
🎦 17:10-19:47⏩
Jonathan analyzes recently released footage from November of a HIMARS strike successfully targeting and destroying a Russian Zala and Lancet drone operator team in the Donetsk region. This incident underscores the Ukrainian military's strategic focus on eliminating Russian reconnaissance capabilities, recognizing that these drone teams play a crucial role in guiding both drone and missile strikes (such as the Iskander-M attack on the Ukrainian military train). By neutralizing these reconnaissance assets, Ukraine aims to disrupt Russia's ability to acquire and engage high-value targets, thereby mitigating the threat posed by both medium-range suicide drones and ballistic missiles. Jonathan defends the use of expensive HIMARS munitions against seemingly low-value targets like drone operator teams, arguing that the potential damage inflicted by these teams (as evidenced by the train strike) justifies the cost. He emphasizes the concept of "opportunity cost," highlighting that failing to eliminate these teams could have far-reaching and costly consequences for Ukrainian forces. A Twitter thread by Rob Lee is cited, documenting numerous instances of HIMARS systems targeting and destroying Lancet and other reconnaissance drone operator teams and their associated infrastructure, suggesting a concerted effort by Ukraine to degrade this specific Russian capability.
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Correction: Ukrainian Drone-Assisted Artillery Targeting is More Modern than Previously Described
🎦 19:47-25:12⏩
Jonathan issues a correction to a previous claim regarding Ukrainian drone-assisted artillery targeting, acknowledging that he may have inadvertently portrayed the process as more rudimentary than it actually is. A viewer, "i kurong," pointed out that the system is far more sophisticated and relies on real-time data integration. Rather than relying on manual calculations and adjustments based on estimations of a target's future position (as previously described), Ukrainian drone operators utilize a button-activated system to mark targets directly. This information is then relayed to a computer, which automatically and continuously updates the shooting solution using real-time data from the drone, including the target's speed, direction, and environmental factors. This real-time data integration allows for high-precision targeting, minimizes the impact of timing errors, weather conditions, and shell quality variations, and represents a significant advancement over more traditional artillery targeting methods. Jonathan uses this opportunity to address comments from Russian trolls who question the high casualty rate among Russian troops despite their supposed advantage in artillery systems. He explains that while Russia may possess a numerical advantage in artillery pieces and ammunition, their reliance on outdated tactics and less accurate targeting methods necessitates a higher volume of fire (often cited as a 10:1 or 5:1 advantage) to achieve the desired effect. This "spray and pray" approach contrasts sharply with Ukraine's more precise, drone-assisted targeting, which enables them to inflict greater casualties with fewer rounds. Jonathan reiterates that the effectiveness of artillery lies not only in the quantity of shells fired but also in the accuracy and precision of those rounds. Ukraine's modern approach, leveraging real-time data and advanced drone technology, showcases a paradigm shift in artillery warfare, highlighting the disparity between their innovative methods and the more traditional, less effective strategies potentially employed by Russian forces.
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Satellite Imagery Analysis: Russian S-300 Storage Compound
🎦 25:12-28:59⏩
Jonathan discusses satellite imagery analysis of a Russian S-300 storage compound in the Far East, revealing a large number of S-300 components, potentially launchers. While this might suggest significant stockpiles, Jonathan cautions that having a surplus of launchers is meaningless without a sufficient number of operational radars, which are essential for target acquisition and engagement. Just like the Iskander-M missiles are ineffective without reconnaissance drones to provide targeting data, S-300 launchers require functioning radars to guide their missiles. Therefore, the mere presence of launchers does not necessarily indicate a robust air defense capability. Jonathan acknowledges the possibility of Russia possessing ample S-300 missiles, estimated at 8,000 as of the previous year, and a substantial number of launchers. However, the crucial factor remains the availability and functionality of the associated radar systems. This uncertainty surrounding Russia's radar capabilities raises questions about the effectiveness of their S-300 air defense system. Jonathan highlights the recent deployment of an S-500 system to Crimea as potential evidence of a shortage of S-300 radars. The decision to relocate such a high-value asset from Moscow to Crimea suggests a pressing need to bolster air defenses on the peninsula, potentially due to the depletion or destruction of other air defense systems, including S-300 radars. This further supports the argument that Russia might be facing challenges in maintaining a robust air defense network.
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Overnight Russian Strikes on Odesa and Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Six Russian Regions
🎦 28:59-31:56⏩
Jonathan reports on Russian missile strikes on Odesa overnight, with a rocket impacting the coastal area south of the city. While details are limited, he transitions to discussing more extensive information regarding Ukrainian drone attacks on six Russian regions. Russian media claims to have downed 36 drones across Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh, Bryansk, and Orel Oblasts. However, Jonathan suggests that these claims should be treated with skepticism, pointing out that Russia has a history of inflating its successes in downing drones. He contends that the sheer number of alleged interceptions likely indicates that several drones managed to penetrate Russian defenses and strike their targets. Jonathan highlights a fire that erupted at a waste disposal production site in Nizhny Novgorod, impacting an area of 500 square meters. While the cause of this fire remains unconfirmed, it coincides with reports of explosions, drone activity, and widespread strikes in multiple Russian regions, suggesting a possible connection. Additional footage and eyewitness accounts from various locations, including the Novolipetsk Iron and Steel Works, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and Lipetsk, depict explosions and drone activity. These widespread strikes demonstrate Ukraine's expanding reach and ability to conduct offensive operations deep within Russian territory.
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Ukrainian Strikes Target Russian Chemical Supply Chain
🎦 31:56-32:35⏩
Jonathan speculates on the strategic implications of Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian chemical facilities, referencing footage from Nizhny Novgorod showing large chemical tanks engulfed in flames. While the exact nature of these chemicals (whether waste products or those used in industrial processes) is unknown, Twitter user "Trent" suggests that such strikes, if part of a concerted effort to disrupt Russia's chemical supply chain, could significantly hamper their munitions and weapons production. Jonathan acknowledges the potential impact of these strikes, drawing parallels to historical strategic bombing campaigns that sought to cripple an enemy's industrial capacity. He concludes that, regardless of the specific targets, the widespread strikes across Russia indicate a deliberate strategy to target facilities crucial to their war effort.
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Russian Atrocity in Volnyansk
🎦 32:35-33:31⏩
Jonathan condemns a Russian missile attack on the city center of Volnyansk in the Zaporizhzhia region, characterizing it as another atrocity committed by Russian forces. The deliberate and brutal attack, targeting civilians in the middle of the day, resulted in seven fatalities (including two children) and 36 injuries (including four children). The attack caused fires in commercial buildings, homes, and vehicles, and damaged civilian infrastructure. Emergency services responded swiftly to extinguish the fires and conduct search and rescue operations, assisted by paramedics, sappers, and other specialized personnel. Jonathan expresses his disgust at the Russian military's continued targeting of civilian areas, highlighting the devastating consequences of these attacks.
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Heavy Russian Bombardment of Toretsk
🎦 33:31-34:38⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Toretsk in the Donetsk Oblast, a town caught in the crossfire between Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka. This area, where the Russians have made some limited gains following a Ukrainian military setback or rotation, has been subjected to intense bombardment, with Toretsk bearing the brunt of the attacks. Jonathan shows harrowing footage of the town's devastation, including collapsed buildings and distressed residents.
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Forbes Article: Russian Su-34 Jets Vulnerable at Renovated Baltimor Air Base
🎦 34:38-35:25⏩
Jonathan expresses frustration over a Forbes article reporting on the presence of numerous Russian Su-34 fighter jets at the recently renovated Baltimor Air Base in the Voronezh region. The article, citing a Ukrainian analytical group, highlights the vulnerability of these aircraft, suggesting that Ukraine could potentially cripple Russia's entire operational fleet stationed there if permitted to strike. However, the Biden administration has thus far prohibited Ukraine from using long-range weapons, such as ATACMS missiles, to target this base, despite its strategic significance and the potential for a decisive blow against Russian air power. Jonathan questions the rationale behind this restriction, especially given the potential for significantly impacting the course of the war.
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Russian Iskander-M Strike on Ukrainian Military Train Near Kamianske
🎦 35:25-36:52⏩
Jonathan revisits the earlier topic of the Iskander-M missile strike on a Ukrainian military train, providing additional information and analysis. The strike occurred near Kamianske in the Zaporizhzhia region, approximately 50 kilometers from the front lines. While Russian sources claim the destruction of numerous armored vehicles and trucks, Jonathan casts doubt on these assertions. He argues that the available footage, primarily focusing on a large explosion at the rear of the train, suggests that the damage might be less extensive than Russia claims. However, he acknowledges the severity of the strike, noting that the explosion's force indicates potential damage to equipment and supplies being transported by the train. Jonathan reiterates the critical role of medium-range reconnaissance drones in enabling such strikes, emphasizing the need for Ukraine to prioritize the elimination of these assets and their operators.
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Debunking Russian Disinformation About Strikes on Crimean Beach
🎦 36:52-40:34⏩
Jonathan addresses the ongoing Russian disinformation campaign surrounding alleged Ukrainian strikes on a Crimean beach. He criticizes Western media outlets, including the BBC, The Guardian, and CNN, for amplifying Russian narratives without proper scrutiny. These narratives falsely claimed that Ukrainian forces deliberately targeted civilians on the beach using American-supplied ATACMS missiles, exploiting the incident for propaganda purposes. Jonathan debunks these claims, citing evidence suggesting that falling debris, initially misidentified as ATACMS bomblets, originated from malfunctioning Russian air defense missiles that detonated mid-air. He emphasizes the importance of critical analysis and contextual understanding when evaluating such claims, particularly given Russia's history of spreading disinformation. Jonathan argues that Western media outlets should exercise greater caution and avoid inadvertently disseminating Russian propaganda by uncritically reporting their claims as fact. He stresses the need to consider the broader context, including Ukraine's consistent efforts to avoid civilian casualties and Russia's well-documented history of dishonesty, before presenting information to the public.
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Other News: Ukrainian Civilians in Russian Captivity, Mistreatment of POWs, and Black Sea Fleet Activity
🎦 40:34-43:17⏩
Jonathan shifts to other news, reporting that over 14,000 Ukrainian citizens are currently held captive by Russia, according to the Lubinets (the Ukrainian Parliament's Human Rights Commissioner). This figure encompasses prisoners of war (POWs) and civilians detained before and during the war. Jonathan emphasizes that this includes individuals arrested for various reasons, including those working in power plants, highlighting the widespread targeting of Ukrainian citizens beyond active combatants. He then presents a stark "before and after" comparison of Oleksandr Hrystsiuk, a Ukrainian man from the Volhyn Oblast who died in Russian captivity. The images reveal the horrific toll of torture and mistreatment endured by Ukrainian prisoners, with Hrystsiuk's emaciated body bearing clear signs of abuse. His death, allegedly attributed to his refusal to speak Russian, exemplifies the brutality and inhumane treatment inflicted upon Ukrainian captives. Jonathan encourages viewers to watch Sukomimus' channel for satellite imagery analysis of Sevastopol, which reveals a significant reduction in the presence of Russian warships. This absence of most of the Black Sea Fleet, with only three combat ships remaining, represents a strategic victory for Ukraine and demonstrates the effectiveness of their efforts to curtail Russia's naval activity in the region.
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Rumours, Investigations, and Cyber Warfare Updates
🎦 43:17-46:25⏩
Jonathan addresses an unverified rumor circulating online that claims Ukrainian forces have begun utilizing F-16 fighter jets. While he acknowledges the existence of this rumor, he expresses strong skepticism about its validity, urging viewers to exercise caution when encountering such information from unreliable sources. He transitions to discussing the ongoing investigation into Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol's conduct during the Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. Sodal, previously removed from his position after facing criticism from within the Ukrainian military, is now under scrutiny by the State Bureau of Investigation. Jonathan highlights the seriousness of these allegations, particularly those suggesting that Sodol's actions might have led to avoidable Ukrainian casualties. Jonathan delves into the evolving landscape of cyber warfare, noting that Ukrainian hackers have shifted their focus from disrupting Russian businesses to directly supporting military operations. He cites an exclusive interview with a spokesperson from the Ukrainian IT Army, a collective of volunteer hackers, who revealed their involvement in disabling Russian CCTV networks to facilitate drone strikes on targets such as oil refineries. This strategic shift demonstrates the growing sophistication and impact of Ukrainian cyber operations in the conflict. Jonathan concludes this segment by highlighting the ongoing efforts of Ukrainian hacktivists to target Russian companies supporting the war effort. He mentions the "BO Team," a cyber community working in conjunction with Ukraine's intelligence services, which has carried out a series of attacks against these companies. While the specific nature of these attacks remains undisclosed, Jonathan's commentary suggests that Ukrainian cyber offensives are ongoing and multifaceted, targeting both military and commercial entities complicit in Russia's aggression.
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Trenton Anko's Analysis: Increased Russian Train Derailments
🎦 46:25-46:28⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions Trenton Anko, an open-source intelligence analyst specializing in Russian logistics, who predicts an increase in Russian train derailments. Anko attributes these derailments to the deteriorating condition of Russian locomotives and rolling stock, particularly the gradual failure of Western-made roller bearings that are no longer being maintained or replaced due to sanctions.
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Wrap up
🎦 46:28-46:33⏩
Jonathan signs off, thanking his viewers for their patience and apologizing for the delay in posting the update.
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