Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to part 3 of the 23rd November 2024 Ukraine War News Update, and introduces the Geopolitical News update.
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Baltic Sea: Russia monitors Chinese ship suspected of severing undersea cables, Sweden to repair
🎦 00:08-02:30⏩
A Swedish ship is being sent to fix two undersea cables which have been severed in the Baltic Sea. Danish naval vessels are accompanying the Chinese ship "Yipeng-3" (with a Russian captain) which is suspected of severing the cables. A Russian missile corvette stopped in the Kattegat Strait (between Denmark and Sweden) to monitor the situation, despite Russia denying involvement. Jonathan acknowledges that Open Source Intelligence can provide timely information - he himself correctly reported the sinking of the Moskva before mainstream media, based on distress calls. In this instance, the presence of a Russian corvette monitoring the "Yipeng-3" suggests Russian involvement in the cable severing.
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Norway: Security guard arrested for spying for Russia and Iran
🎦 02:30-03:03⏩
A security guard at the US Embassy in Oslo has been arrested for spying for Russia and Iran, prompting a viewer comment "Is there a US embassy on earth that isn't loaded with Russian Spies?".
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UK: Man admits arson attack on London property linked to Ukraine, paid by foreign intelligence agency
🎦 03:03-04:00⏩
A 22 year old British man admitted to carrying out an arson attack on a commercial property linked to Ukraine in London. He admitted to being paid by a foreign intelligence agency which the prosecution have linked to Russia. This is an example of hybrid warfare being carried out in our own countries.
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Gabrielius Landsbergis calls for "winning strategy" based on strength and weapons
🎦 04:00-05:44⏩
Jonathan shares a quote from the former Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, who calls the strategy of de-escalation a "failing and failed" one. Instead, he calls for a "winning strategy" based on strength and weapons. Jonathan agrees with Landsbergis, believing that de-escalation only works if both sides are intent on doing so, and in this case it is simply allowing Russia to get what they want. The only workable de-escalation in this case is Russia getting out of Ukraine, which doesn't seem likely.
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Western Support: Robert Fitzow claims West wants to continue the war, Jackson Hinkle appears on UK Talk TV
🎦 05:44-08:29⏩
- Robert Fitzow (friend of Putin) is quoted as claiming there is more and more evidence from the West that it wants the war to continue, and that ultimately the war suits Zelensky because aid is flowing into Ukraine. Jonathan notes that he worries about continued support from the West and wants to see Ukraine prevail.
- Jackson Hinkle (American, pro-Russian) appeared on UK TalkTV. Jonathan gives some background on Hinkle, noting that he has started extolling the virtues of the American Communist Party. Jonathan notes that both GB News and TalkTV are attempting to be the UK equivalent of Fox News, appealing to right wing audiences. He shares a clip where Hinkle (who is repeatedly called "Jason") is shut down for suggesting the world would be better off if Putin fired a missile at 10 Downing Street. Jonathan notes that Hinkle is nothing like him, and that he is "an idiot".
Georgia: Protests block Heroes Square in Tbilisi
🎦 08:29-08:46⏩
Protests continue in Georgia, with the opposition blocking Heroes Square in Tbilisi in a protest against the results of the "falsified" parliamentary elections. Jonathan hopes the protests continue, but questions whether they will be able to maintain momentum.
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HSBC halts payments from Russia and Belarus
🎦 08:46-10:07⏩
HSBC, the UK's largest bank, has finally stopped accepting payments from Russia and Belarus. This is a significant move, which is "long overdue" - three years into the war Russia has had access to British banking until now. Jonathan shares some personal anecdotes about HSBC and Midland Bank.
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Hungary criticises US sanctions on Gazprom Bank, OTP bank stops servicing Gazprom Union Pay cards
🎦 10:07-11:06⏩
- Hungary's OTP bank has stopped servicing Russian Gazprom Bank Union Pay cards.
- Hungary has criticised US sanctions on Gazprom bank, stating that they pose a threat to the energy security of Central European countries.
- US sanctions have rendered Gazprom Bank cards unusable, even in Russia-friendly countries such as China, Hungary, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Turkey, the UAE, Thailand, Qatar and Germany.
Impact of sanctions on Russian Economy: buses cut, interest rates at infinity, ruble tanking
🎦 11:06-18:54⏩
Jonathan shares a number of examples which demonstrate the precarious state of the Russian Economy:
- Due to a lack of funds, the local administration in the Gorky district of Omsk Region has reduced bus services between villages. This is not an isolated incident.
- He shares a clip from "Econ Lessons" with Mark Biernath. The Russian ruble is on a downward trend against the dollar, and more importantly the Ukrainian hryvnia. Interest rates are very high - the bank rate is 21%, but entrepreneurs have to pay 28%-30% to borrow money. Biernath goes on to explain that the true interest rate is "infinity" - essentially, no sane person would take the risk of accepting rubles now in return for rubles at a future date, as they may not exist then. The only safe haven for Russians is the US dollar, Euro, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
- Jonathan agrees with Biernath's assessment, calling for sanctions to remain in place. He believes that the Russian economy will eventually collapse from within.
US: Declassified memo reveals Putin assassination targets
🎦 18:54-22:44⏩
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has released a declassified memo shedding light on Putin's assassination of political adversaries. Jonathan believes that the timing of this is no coincidence, given the possibility of Tulsi Gabbard (described as a "pro-Russian simp") taking on the role of DNI in the new Trump Administration. The memo details a number of suspicious deaths of prominent Putin critics - some fell out of windows, others were bludgeoned to death, poisoned or committed suicide in ways that defy logic. It is noted that Putin is keen to pick off "insubordinate separatists" in Ukraine. The memo also reveals that US intelligence officials have long believed that Russia had the capability to assassinate individuals using chemical and biological agents. This information had not been released previously as it would ruin Russian-American relations, but it is important now given the growing pro-Russian sentiment in the incoming US administration.
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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets Donald Trump
🎦 22:44-23:04⏩
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has met Donald Trump to discuss global security challenges, accompanied by Trump's team. Jonathan notes this is good news - Rutte has good purchase with Trump.
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Incoming Trump Administration: Concerns about personnel and impact on Ukraine
🎦 23:04-27:15⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about a number of personnel in the incoming Trump administration:
- Pete Hegseth (Defence Secretary) is not pro-Ukraine
- Kristi Noem (Homeland Security) not particularly pro-Ukraine
- Tulsi Gabbard (DNI) is incredibly problematic
- Mehmet Oz (another TV personality with a lot of money)
- Scott Besant (Treasury Secretary) - another billionaire
Jonathan believes that the US is moving into a period of oligarchy, where the richest people in the world are simply volunteering for government positions so they don't have to go through the process of disclosing conflicts of interest. He provides a list of billionaires in the Trump administration, including Linda McMahon, Howard Lucknick, Kelly Loeffler and Doug Burgum.
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Project 2025 and influence within the Trump Administration
🎦 27:15-27:15⏩
Jonathan shares a number of concerns regarding Project 2025, a plan written by the Heritage Foundation who are anti-Ukraine and pro-Russia. He highlights a number of people in the Trump administration with links to the Project:
- Russell Vought (OMB Director)
- Tom Homan (author, border star)
- Brendan Carr, Pete Hoekstra, John Ratcliffe
- Howard Lutnick
- Sebastian Gorka
- JD Vance (Vice President) wrote the foreword for the main person from Heritage Foundation/Project 2025.
He also notes that Sebastian Gorka is of particular concern, and that those who do not need Senate Confirmation are even more worrying, as it allows "dodginess to happen".
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Tulsi Gabbard (DNI Nominee) placed on TSA list
🎦 27:15-28:15⏩
Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's pick to lead the intelligence community, has been placed on a TSA list which prompts additional security screening. This is due to her overseas travel patterns and foreign connections which have triggered a government algorithm. She is described as an "insane" pick for DNI who will be very challenging for the intelligence community.
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Richard Grenell (former intelligence chief) as potential special envoy to Russia-Ukraine conflict
🎦 28:15-29:03⏩
Donald Trump is considering Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief, to be special envoy to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Grenell is not in favour of Ukraine joining NATO in the near future.
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Reactions to Incoming Trump Administration: John Bolton, Lisa Murkowski, Mike Rounds and Michael McCaul
🎦 29:03-35:54⏩
Jonathan shares reactions from a number of people to the make-up of the incoming Trump administration:
- John Bolton: Bolton describes Sebastian Gorka as a con-man who he would not have in any US government. He goes on to say that although people are focusing on the top jobs, the deputy and undersecretaries are very important as they tell us a lot about who is running the government. He says that Gorka is a "perfect example of somebody who owes his position purely to Donald Trump". Trump doesn't want Gorka's opinions, he wants him to say "Yes sir". Jonathan describes Gorka as a "bad, bad pick" due to his opinions and links.
- Lisa Murkowski: She has declared that she will not support any of Trump's nominees unless they undergo a full FBI vetting. Jonathan welcomes this news.
- Mike Rounds: Rounds (Republican Senator and Trump ally) rejects the idea of negotiating with Putin, and wishes the US had sent more weapons to Kyiv.
- Michael McCaul: McCaul (Congressman, 10th District of Texas) believes that the US would be weaker if it allowed Russia to take over all of Ukraine. He believes that Ukraine is fighting this conflict for the US, and that it is a moral obligation to defend freedom and democracy against what he describes as "a very formidable adversary alliance" - Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Jonathan welcomes these comments.
Elon Musk (DOGE Co-Chair) targets Federal Employees on Twitter
🎦 35:54-39:51⏩
Jonathan shares concerns about Elon Musk, who has been put in charge of the soon to be created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) alongside Vivek Ramaswamy. Their aim is to make massive cuts in government spending. Musk has been using Twitter to target federal employees, tweeting their names and personal details and leading to harassment from his followers. One example is Ashley Thomas, Director of Climate Diversity at the US International Development Financial Corps, whose job Musk called "fake". Jonathan expresses concern about the use of these tactics, noting that it will make people fearful of speaking up. He is concerned that government jobs will be lost at random, potentially based on whether social security numbers end with odd or even numbers. This is not the first time that Musk has used Twitter to attack people, citing the example of Yoel Roth (former Head of Trust and Safety). Jonathan describes this as "a billionaire wielding power problematically" and highlights that both Musk and Ramaswamy are disdainful of continued support for Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 39:51-40:57⏩
Jonathan notes that the influence of Musk, Ramaswamy, David Sacks and Peter Thiel is a "really worrying time" for Ukraine and international diplomacy. He worries about what the US might end up doing, given the "problematic" nominees in the upcoming Trump administration. He welcomes user comments and plans to keep talking about this as it is very important. He thanks viewers for their support.
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"The Russian interest rate is infinity"
