Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello Team | 00:00- 00:15 |
| 2 | Kharkiv/Vovchansk | 00:15 - 11:06 |
| 3 | Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna | 12:06 - 14:20 |
| 4 | Rozdalivka | 14:20 - 15:50 |
| 5 | Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar | 15:50 - 16:32 |
| 6 | Toretsk/New York | 16:32 - 17:39 |
| 7 | Avdiivka/Krasnohorivka | 17:39 - 18:53 |
| 8 | Robotyne/Velyka Novosilka | 18:53 - 20:07 |
| 9 | Wrap up | 20:07 - 20:37 |
"It's absolutely catastrophic really for the Russians in terms of what this has achieved or indeed what it hasn't achieved."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00- 00:15
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new frontline update, reminding those new to the channel to familiarise themselves with the map legend. He highlights that today's focus will be on areas with visible changes.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kharkiv/Vovchansk
🎦 00:15 - 11:06
Jonathan discusses the situation in the Kharkiv Oblast, citing analysis from Emil Kastehelmi.
- Russia's six-week-long northern Kharkiv offensive has stalled, with Ukrainian counterattacks reclaiming areas like Chans'k, Dar'ivka, and Kyob'yake.
- Despite fortifying their positions, Russia's objectives—creating confusion, tying up Ukrainian reserves, establishing a buffer zone with Belgorod, and bringing Kharkiv within artillery range—have all failed.
- Jonathan analyses the flawed logic of Russia's resource allocation, highlighting the more strategic use of their 50,000 troops deployed in Kharkiv.
- Despite suffering losses of engineering equipment, including excavators, Russia remains determined to fortify their positions near Vovchansk. This, however, is viewed as a politically motivated sunk cost fallacy, as a defensive line already exists on the Russian side of the border.
- The Kharkiv offensive backfired strategically for Russia, leading to expedited Western military aid for Ukraine and permission to strike Russian territory, including the destruction of S-300 and S-400 air defence systems around Belgorod.
- While the future of similar operations remains uncertain, Jonathan acknowledges the unknown cost of Ukrainian counterattacks, particularly the push to retake Vovchansk.
- Dead District reports that the Russian 83rd Airborne Assault Brigade, having suffered heavy losses in Vovchansk, is being withdrawn and deemed incapable of fighting. Casualty figures are estimated as 200 dead, 300 injured, and 500 deserters.
Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna
🎦 12:06 - 14:20
- Ukrainian forces have made significant territorial gains west of Kreminna, liberating almost three square kilometres in the Terny and Torska area, north of the Serebryansky forest.
- It remains unclear whether this advance is recent or occurred last month, with conflicting reports from sources like Deep State Maps and Surayat Maps.
- The counteroffensive, spearheaded by the 95th Air Assault Brigade, 60th, 93rd, and 63rd Brigades, signifies positive momentum for Ukraine in the region. Jonathan suggests the potential for this to cause Russia to divert troops from other fronts.
- However, Deep State Map indicates a minor Russian advance near the railway line on the way to Lyman.
Rozdalivka
🎦 14:20 - 15:50
- Russian forces have captured most of Rozdalivka, north of Soledar and Bakhmut, confirmed by the presence of a planted Russian flag and corroborated by Surayat Maps. This advance marks a notable development in the area.
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Bakhmut/Chasiv Yar
🎦 15:50 - 16:32
- No changes are observed in the Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar areas, which Jonathan considers positive news for Ukraine, acknowledging the intensity of the fighting there. He alludes to personal connections to soldiers, including international fighters, who have lost their lives in the Chasiv Yar area.
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Toretsk/New York
🎦 16:32 - 17:39
- Despite no changes observed near Pivnichne over recent days, Russia has secured a minor advance south of that location, north of Novoselivika.
- This is part of a broader Russian push towards the town of New York, having captured trenches and houses, opening a new access route towards the Toretsk area. - Jonathan questions whether this represents a concerted effort or an opportunistic exploitation of Ukrainian troop rotations. He highlights the need for vigilance on the Ukrainian side, as Russia probes along multiple points.
Avdiivka/Krasnohorivka
🎦 17:39 - 18:53
- While no significant changes are noted along the Avdiivka salient, there's notable activity further south in Krasnohorivka.
- Deep State Map indicates that Russian forces have regained control of a small area previously recaptured by Ukraine (timing of initial Ukrainian attack uncertain).
- Surayat Maps shows Russia has taken control of roads and neighbourhoods west of Krasnohorivka.
- Jonathan acknowledges Krasnohorivka as a volatile frontline area.
Robotyne/Velyka Novosilka
🎦 18:53 - 20:07
- The front line from Robotyne to Velyka Novosilka remains unchanged, which Jonathan views as positive.
- This suggests a halt in Russia's previous pattern of sporadic but consistent attacks in areas like Robotyne and Vrbovo.
- Jonathan speculates on the reasons behind this, including a potential depletion of Russian resources for smaller-scale offensives or the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in deterring attacks. He highlights the significant role of drones, with Ukraine producing an estimated 90,000 FPV drones monthly.
Wrap up
🎦 20:07 - 20:37
- Jonathan thanks viewers for their support, encouraging them to like and subscribe to the channel.
- He mentions potential disruptions to content in the following day due to a school reunion.
