Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: F-16 Challenges, Wagner Death Stats, & Wagner Wine
Table of Contents 📖
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"This is not a wunderwaffe. It's a 35 to 40 year old lightweight multi-role fighter with mid-90s upgrade to some mission systems. It is capable of linking to other NATO standard systems and can carry out some modern some carry some more modern weapons. Is not going to grant air superiority."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as an extra update providing additional insights into the war in Ukraine. He mentions he pre-recorded the video due to his schedule.
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F-16 Capabilities and Limitations for Ukraine
Jonathan discusses the potential capabilities and limitations of F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine:
- F-16s can use AMRAAMs (air-to-air missiles), JASSMs (air-to-surface missiles), and Link 16 datalinks
- However, the F-16 MLU variants likely to be provided have older, less capable APG-66 radars compared to modern Russian fighters
- Pilot training, aircraft maintenance, munitions supply, and financing are challenges but can likely be overcome
- The biggest limitations are Russia's lethal air defences and the F-16's radar and missile range disadvantage against modern Russian fighters like the MiG-31 and Su-35 with R-37 missiles
- F-16s could still provide benefits in cruise missile defence, long-range strike with JASSMs, sea control with LRASMs, and NATO interoperability - but are unlikely to achieve air superiority
Russian "Storm" Aviation Group and Pilot Shortages
According to UK intelligence, Russia is creating a new attack aviation group called "Storm" consisting of Su-24/34 bombers and attack helicopters. To address pilot shortages, they are offering large pay incentives and recruiting retired aviators. This highlights how Russia's regular air force has underperformed in conducting airstrikes and suffered attrition.
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German Taurus Cruise Missiles for Ukraine
A German politician advocated providing Taurus cruise missiles with a 500+ km range to Ukraine, seeing them as potentially very useful. The German Defence Minister expressed hesitation about this proposal. The Taurus is similar to the British Storm Shadow cruise missile.
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Rocket Launch Mishap and Frontline Sleep Deprivation
- Video shows a Russian BM-27 220mm multiple rocket launcher firing, with the launch appearing to cause more damage than expected, possibly a malfunction.
- Another clip illustrates the sleep deprivation Ukrainian soldiers face on the front lines with near constant artillery fire.
Wagner Group Seizes Winery in Bakhmut
Footage shows the vast Artwinery in Bakhmut with millions of bottles of wine now under Wagner control after they captured the area. Jonathan speculates Wagner will exploit this for financial gain, as profit is their main motive as a mercenary group, drawing some parallels to how national militaries also often serve economic interests.
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Analysis of Wagner Group Casualties in Bakhmut
Independent Russian media analysis of social media posts by Wagner fighters' relatives, correlated with reported operations, provides minimum confirmed casualty figures showing:
- Casualties rose dramatically starting in October 2022 as Wagner assaulted Bakhmut
- January 2023 was likely the deadliest month, with at least 1000 deaths as Wagner took Soledar using human wave attacks
- Reported deaths declined in February-April 2023 as Wagner slowly captured Bakhmut but remained very high
- Total Russian losses in Bakhmut likely in the tens of thousands, disproportionately poorly-trained disposable "troops" recruited from prisons
- This supports Ukrainian accounts of the battle being very costly for Russia
Wrap up
Jonathan hopes the extra information and analysis was of interest, thanks his channel members and supporters, and signs off.
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