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Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News

News🔷Hits and Losses🔷Geopolitics🔷Military Aid Sunday, 29th January 2023, 12:20
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"You can't half-ass a war. Putin's not. You've got to meet Putin armor for armor, weapon for weapon, because there's already an extraordinary disadvantage in number of troops."

Hello Team!

Jonathan provides an update on the Russia-Ukraine war for January 29, 2023. He mentions being a bit late due to other Sunday morning commitments.

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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA

  1. These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
  2. These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
  3. All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
  4. Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
  5. Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
  6. Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
  7. Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
  8. All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
  9. Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.

Ukrainian figures on Russian losses

  • 650 liquidated Russian personnel (fewer than previous days but still average)
  • 8 tanks, 22 APCs (a considerable number, possibly due to fighting around Vuhledar)
  • 7 artillery systems, 10 vehicles and fuel tanks
  • No aircraft or helicopters lost for first time


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Czech presidential election

  • Retired Czech army general Petr Pavel decisively defeated populist billionaire Andrej Babiš
  • Pavel is pro-Western, fully endorses Czech support for Ukraine, and stresses importance of EU and NATO membership
  • Babiš had taken more controversial stances like refusing to send troops to Poland/Baltics if attacked
  • Pavel replacing controversy-courting Miloš Zeman who was more pro-Russia and China
  • Pavel's election cements Czech Republic's Western orientation, a very positive development if you're pro-Ukraine


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Russian reconnaissance drones

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian reconnaissance drones have been observed along the Belarus-Russia border, likely searching for Ukrainian mobile air defences. The goal may be to locate and destroy these defences to enable Shahed-136 drones to get through.

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Spanish Leopard tanks for Ukraine

After Germany approved sending Leopard tanks, Spain announced 20 of its Leopard 2A4 tanks in storage are suddenly in acceptable condition to send to Ukraine. This is great news, although some are noting the convenient timing of them being ready only after German approval.

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Poland sending additional tanks

In addition to the 276 tanks already delivered, Poland will send Ukraine another 14 Leopard tanks plus 60 modernized Soviet-era tanks. Poland is leading a coalition to get tanks to the front lines to fight the Russian invaders. Latest figures indicate Ukraine has been promised around 324 tanks total from allies.

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Dutch microchips still reaching Russia

An investigation found that despite sanctions, microchips produced by Dutch companies are still reaching Russia through intermediaries, including deliveries to three Russian defence enterprises. This confirms the ongoing challenges in preventing Russia from acquiring microchips and other components for its defence industry through indirect channels.

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Ukrainian pilots and F-16 training

There have been conflicting reports on whether Ukrainian pilots have already been training on F-16s. Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine's Defence Minister, clarified that Ukraine is not currently anticipating a specific number of fighter jets from allies and the reports from a Spanish newspaper were based on mistranslation. However, there is growing bipartisan support in the US Congress for sending F-16s to Ukraine, although some argue artillery and air defence remain higher priorities. Jonathan believes F-16s would be beneficial and Ukraine should be given everything to end the war as soon as possible.

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HIMARS strikes on Ilovaisk

Ilovaisk, an important logistical hub for Russia behind Donetsk, has been hit again by HIMARS rockets, at least the third known strike. Although railways can be repaired fairly quickly, the hope is to destroy military equipment and supplies situated at the rail junctions. Ukraine likely has real-time intelligence on what assets are parked at the station to optimize timing of the strikes.

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Sweden's NATO accession paused

Sweden's NATO accession process has been temporarily suspended, likely due to Turkey's veto following the Quran burning incident in Stockholm. The Swedish Foreign Minister's planned visit to Turkey was also cancelled. This represents a significant hurdle to Sweden joining the alliance.

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Drone attacks in Iran

Multiple drone attacks have been reported in Iran, including strikes on a Ministry of Defence building in Isfahan (an ammunition production facility), an oil plant in Azarshahr, and a third unspecified location. Iranian jets were scrambled in response. The perpetrators are currently unknown. According to preliminary information, the ammunition factory in Isfahan was struck by a drone, with air defence systems active in the area.

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Misinformation on Twitter

Jonathan highlights the dangers of influential figures on Twitter, like Elon Musk, amplifying and reacting to completely fabricated information. In this case, a fake report claimed Ukraine requested extradition of all military-age Ukrainian men from Europe, which Musk and others reacted to with outrage without verifying. Although a proponent of free speech, Jonathan argues there is a role for moderation and censorship when it comes to demonstrable falsehoods that can cause real-world harm, especially when propagated by those with large platforms and influence on politics. A more nuanced approach is needed.

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Wrap up

Jonathan concludes the update, acknowledging there are likely other stories he missed while occupied with other tasks in the morning. He will provide a frontline update next. Jonathan thanks viewers, asks them to like, subscribe and share, and notes the ways to support his channel can be found in the video description.

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