Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"Russia attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure isn't an attack on Ukraine, this is an attack on all of Europe"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:08⏩
Jonathan starts the video by apologising for the later start time. He's been busy watching his son play football and is quite pleased by the score. He reminds viewers that his partner is away at a gym festival.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report - Daily Losses
🎦 00:08-03:10⏩
Jonathan kicks off his daily report by looking at the figures for Russian losses.
- Personnel - 1,210 - significant
- Tanks - 3 - down
- Troop Carrying Air Vehicles - 40 - much higher, likely a result of attacking
- Artillery Systems - 25 - lower than the last few days, although higher than the daily average
- Jonathan notes that some figures from Andrew Perpetua on vehicles lost may be inflated due to a time lag.
- 40 troop carrying vehicles and 20 IFVs lost in an attack by 46 Russian vehicles in the Prokrosk area, according to the Ukrainian MOD
- Other notable Russian equipment losses include vehicles/fuel tanks (71) and special equipment (13)
- Jonathan notes that while Ukrainian combat asset losses are much lower, Russian civilian vehicle losses are huge.
Andrew Perpetua (Oryx) - help needed!
🎦 03:10-04:15⏩
Jonathan mentions that Andrew Perpetua needs more people to help with his open source verification work and encourages his viewers to reach out to him via Twitter or the Torchney website if they can help. Jonathan emphasises that those who apply must be consistent and reliable.
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Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 04:15-04:52⏩
Jonathan then looks at the Ukrainian equipment losses, noting the following:
- A few Starlink terminals and communications equipment
- Three boats lost (two sunk, one destroyed)
- One artillery piece lost
- 5 tanks lost - three were destroyed/abandoned but no information on the type, except one T-72
- 4 IFVs lost (three abandoned) - BTR-4Es
- One Bradley Damaged
- One Strike and one Max Pro destroyed
- One Bogdan ambulance destroyed
- A few civilian vehicles destroyed
Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 04:52-06:58⏩
Jonathan looks at Russian Equipment Losses in more detail:
- One Tor air defence system damaged (good news)
- Electronic warfare equipment damaged
- Surveillance and comms equipment damaged or destroyed
- Engineering vehicles (excavators) damaged
- Artillery damaged or destroyed - including D-30s and one BM-27 Uragan MLRS, destroyed by an FPV drone.
- A range of tanks damaged or destroyed - one with a mine roller - T-72B3M (Mod 2022), three lost in total (one abandoned, two damaged).
- Many infantry fighting vehicles destroyed or abandoned
- Significant number of APCs taken out
- Trucks, and a huge number of civilian vehicles destroyed - Jonathan jokes that it looks like a whole bakery!
- Jonathan notes that while the amount of equipment the Russians are losing appears unsustainable, they are able to continue by "throwing everything in the kitchen sink at the Ukrainians"
Kherson - Russian Military Personnel discuss impact of Western Weapons
🎦 06:58-08:04⏩
Jonathan reports on the challenges faced by Russian Military Personnel in the Kherson region from Western weapons:
- HIMARS, Storm Shadow and ATACMS are mentioned although he notes that he's seen less evidence of the latter two being used recently
- Challenges mentioned by the Russian personnel include the range of Western systems, meaning that Ukrainian artillery doesn't need to be positioned near the front line and the ability to target specific locations, including deeper operational areas.
- Complete radio suppression is also mentioned.
- The Russians have reportedly put in a request for the Zoopark 1M radar system, although they are experiencing a shortage.
Strikes - Increased use of Iranian Shahed Drones
🎦 08:29-10:12⏩
Jonathan talks about the increase in the use of Iranian one-way attack (Shahed) drones.
- Jonathan is of the view that the attacks are happening on such a consistent and large scale that they must be facilitated by the Chinese, who he believes are providing the Russians with engines and technology.
- He shows a chart which demonstrates the significant increase in drone attacks since the beginning of the war.
Effectiveness of Ukrainian Air Defences against Drones
🎦 10:12-11:17⏩
Jonathan praises the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defences, citing a recent attack as an example.
- 76 drones sent in.
- 72 drones shot down/intercepted.
- 2 drones lost over Ukrainian territory (crashed?)
- 2 drones returned to Russia.
- Jonathan notes that while these are Ukrainian figures (so should be treated with caution), they demonstrate that all of the drones were either destroyed or returned to Russia.
- He reiterates that the drone's guidance systems may be vulnerable to spoofing - either by sim cards placed in them (designed to pick up mobile phone masts), or by changing the coding of the masts (a theory suggested by one of his viewers).
Murmansk - Drones spotted near Olenya Airfield
🎦 11:17-12:45⏩
Jonathan moves on to talk about drone activity in the Murmansk region of Russia.
- Drones have been spotted near Olenya Airfield, which is over 1,800km from the Ukrainian border.
- Russian law enforcement has banned local news from publishing any information about the drones.
- The Russians have claimed in the past that drones have come from Norway, Finland and the Baltics.
- Jonathan believes it's highly plausible that Ukraine is capable of these attacks (and has been underselling their capabilities), although it's also possible that they are being launched by partisans within Russia, making the distances travelled much shorter.
Ivano-Frankivsk - Fire at Oil Depot
🎦 12:45-13:31⏩
Jonathan then shows footage of a fire at an oil deport in Ivano-Frankivsk.
- He notes that while the region was attacked the night before (not last night), there is no evidence of missile attacks last night, although there has been a sizable increase in drone attacks
- He notes that the Russians are probably able to manufacture Shahed drones much faster than missiles, which he says is "fairly predictable".
Zelensky - MANPADS, Western Aid and Belarus
🎦 13:31-15:26⏩
Jonathan talks about President Zelensky's recent comments regarding the effectiveness of MANPADS against drones, Western military aid and Belarus' role.
- 35% of Shahed drones are being shot down by MANPADS - meaning around 25 out of the 76 drones in the recent attack were downed by systems such as Stingers and Starstreaks.
- Zelensky has criticised the West for not doing more to help shoot down Russian missiles, saying "only Belarus is helping" - a barbed comment given that this is in relation to drones being spoofed and entering Belarus, where they are then shot down by Belarusian forces, while NATO remain reluctant to do the same.
Odessa - Ports mitigating against energy infrastructure attacks
🎦 15:26-16:27⏩
Jonathan talks about steps being taken in Odessa to mitigate against attacks on energy infrastructure.
- Ports in the region are moving away from dependency on the main energy grid, towards gas powered piston plants to ensure redundancy.
Impact of Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure - increased energy prices in Southeastern Europe
🎦 16:27-19:25⏩
Jonathan moves on to talk about the impact of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure have led to prices doubling in Southeastern Europe this summer.
- Anton Gerashchenko has highlighted the vulnerability of EU energy markets (reported in the Financial Times).
- The Greek Prime Minister has called on the EU to address the capacity issues behind the price increases.
- Electricity prices have risen from €60 to €130 per megawatt hour since August.
- The Greek Prime Minister has said that this is "another price that Russia's war is imposing on our economies"
- Jonathan makes the point that Russian attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure isn't just an attack on Ukraine but on Europe as a whole and that this is also true of Russia's attacks on Ukraine's grain supply - an attack on global food security. He goes on to say that a "resolution to this war to the benefit of Ukraine, is one to the benefit of the West".
Prisoner exchange - 49 Ukrainian's return home
🎦 19:25-21:39⏩
Jonathan reports on a prisoner exchange that took place yesterday (13/09/2024).
- 49 Ukrainians were returned, including soldiers, police officers, border guards and civilians, including Avostal defenders.
- This included 15 Azov fighters.
- Another 103 Ukrainians were returned today (14/09/2024), including 23 Azov fighters.
- Around 950 Ukrainian POWs are still being held.
- Jonathan notes the disparity between the treatment of Russian POWs in Ukraine, and Ukrainian POWs in Russia.
Ukraine 2023 Counteroffensive - over ambitious?
🎦 21:39-25:39⏩
Jonathan talks about leaked intelligence which suggests that late military aid and over ambitious planning may be to blame for the lack of success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023.
- He reminds viewers that Commander in Chief Valery Zaluzhny admitted that he had miscalculated, expecting the Russians to capitulate following heavy losses - "not what the Russians do".
- Zaluzhny also said that the Ukrainians were expecting to take 30km per day but knew within two days that this wasn't going to happen.
- Jonathan questions whether people's perception of Zaluzhny is based on his charisma and likability, rather than his military decisions.
- He goes on to say that the counteroffensive was a failure, and that it's important to scrutinise the decisions made.
- He talks about a report by the Royal United Services Institute which states that the Ukrainians were aiming to liberate territory "at any cost", and have since switched to a strategy of maximizing damage to Russian forces and infrastructure, in order to cripple their ability to finance and fight the war. Jonathan agrees with this approach.
- The report states that Ukraine needs a steady flow of artillery ammunition, long range strike systems (which they are yet to receive clearance from the West to use within Russia's borders)
- Jonathan is critical of the delays in delivering essential equipment such as Abrams tanks, which arrived in September (months after they were needed).
Russian Drone Operator killed after criticising Command
🎦 25:39-27:42⏩
Jonathan reports that a well-respected Russian Drone Operator - Dmitry Gudwin (Lisakovsky), Commander of Aerial Reconnaissance for the DNR, has been killed in action.
- He had recently recorded a video accusing his Regimental Commander of transferring him to assault troops for "selfish motives" (drug trafficking).
- Following this he was sent on a "meat grinder assault mission" where he was killed.
- Jonathan sees this as further evidence of the Russian's propensity for sending troops on "meat grinder" assaults.
Russian Military - Corruption, incompetence and "meat assaults"
🎦 27:42-29:38⏩
Jonathan talks about further anecdotes from the front line that appear to demonstrate Russian military incompetence and corruption.
- WarTranslated reports that Gudwin (and his colleague Ernest), who were part of the 87th Regiment, were part of an elite team specialising in drones.
- Their new commander disbanded the team and confiscated their equipment.
- The team reformed as a reconnaissance group and had their drone shot down (by friendly fire).
- After acquiring a new drone, the team were sent on an assault mission, and went missing in September.
- This is seen as yet another example of the Russian's dysfunctional approach to the war - sending specialists to die in pointless "meat assaults".
Ukrainians not making same mistakes - ingenuity and innovation
🎦 29:38-32:17⏩
Jonathan reports that it appears that the Ukrainians are not making the same mistakes as the Russians.
- Enlistment officers are not sending drone operators to fight on the front lines.
- Specialists are being used effectively and are not being sent to die in assault missions.
- He cites an example of an automated machine gun turret, controlled remotely (at a range of 5km), using gaming platform "Steam Deck" as an example of Ukrainian ingenuity.
Russian Military - more examples of poor decision making
🎦 32:17-36:29⏩
Jonathan talks about more examples of Russian military incompetence, this time, citing Russian sources and bloggers who are critical of their military.
- Even Propagandists are complaining about the situation, with many examples being cited, although Jonathan doesn't believe anything will change.
- He cites several examples of specialists (IT, Artillery, Engineers) being sent to their deaths in assault missions. He also mentions submariners being sent to the front. He questions when assault missions (the hardest and most dangerous job), became a punishment.
- Jonathan reads a quote from a Russian blogger (Sasha Kots), which he sums up as "sabotage" - sending elite/specialist troops to die in infantry assaults when they are needed elsewhere.
Ryan O'Leary - Ukrainian 59th Brigade - Leadership issues
🎦 36:29-37:05⏩
Jonathan says that it's not just the Russians who are experiencing problems, citing criticism by Ryan O'Leary, a US veteran who was fighting in the 59th Brigade until recently.
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Ryan O'Leary - Ukrainian 59th Brigade - Leadership issues (continued)
🎦 37:05-39:53⏩
Jonathan continues talking about the issues within the Ukrainian 59th Brigade.
- While things had been going well in 2023, and O'Leary speaks very highly of the then Brigade Commander (who has since been promoted), he is highly critical of the leadership in place, claiming that battalion commanders are being fired every other week for disobeying orders (and saving their men from "unprepared suicide operations")
- O'Leary believes that these issues are not a reflection on the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian troops who are "overly tired", but on poor leadership, going as far as to say that what has happened in the last six months is "disgraceful, dishonourable and frankly disturbing".
- He gives examples of non-infantry personnel (intelligence officer, supply sergeant, armoured driver) being sent on assault missions and being killed.
- O'Leary finishes by saying that he expects to be demoted to the lowest rank for speaking out.
- Jonathan concludes by noting that both sides appear to be in the same boat, with a dilution of quality and experience at all levels due to the high numbers of casualties. He notes that this results in poor decisions, and ineffective use of troops.
Kursk - Ukrainians make further advances
🎦 39:53-40:38⏩
Jonathan finishes the video by looking at the situation in Kursk
- The Russians have confirmed that the Ukrainians have made further advances near the village of Gluchkovo.
- ISW are reporting that Ukrainian troops have broken through another line of defence in the region
- Forbes has reported that Ukrainian brigades have made a breakthrough south of the village of Novy Put
- There is evidence of a Ukrainian armoured convoy entering Russia in the region
- Pro-Russian sources are reporting heavy fighting, and that the Ukrainians are bringing in significant reinforcements
- Another pro-Russian source has stated that Russia's counter attack in the region has stalled, that the Ukrainians are advancing, and that a large pocket of 1,000 Russian conscripts is at risk of being cut off.
Wrap up
🎦 40:38-40:39⏩
Jonathan signs off.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
I understand that "effery" relates to bad leadership, but I'm not sure how to expand it without using inappropriate language.
Who is PS01 and should I refer to them by name?
What does "Kievka" refer to? Is this a misspelling of Kyiv? If so, should I correct it, given that Jonathan may pronounce it incorrectly?
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is quite a long and detailed transcript! There's quite a lot to cover here so the first thing to do is to identify the topics by reading the transcript thoroughly and using the timestamps to identify where the topics start and end. I will create specific topic titles making sure I use quantifiable data wherever possible and separate unrelated subjects. I will then write concise summaries for each topic ensuring I capture the main points from the transcript. I'll finish by choosing an appropriate quote.
