Ukrainian Counter-Offensive Analysis
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"The recapture of the Ukrainian coast of the Azov Sea would likely end the war for Russia, unless they were able to mount a military reply, which I think they are no longer capable of making."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses his thoughts on potential Ukrainian counter-offensives as an "armchair general". He invites viewers to share their own opinions and ideas in the comments.
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Northern Counter-Offensive Unlikely
- A viewer suggests a counter-offensive from Kharkiv into northern Luhansk to cut off Russian logistics, similar to the successful Kharkiv offensive.
- However, Jonathan believes this is unlikely as it would significantly extend the front line, making it difficult to defend.
- The area has limited strategic value apart from Starobilsk, a key supply hub. Ukraine could potentially attack a short distance to bring Starobilsk within HIMARS range rather than trying to capture the city.
Southern Counter-Offensive More Likely
- Another viewer highlights the strategic importance of recapturing the Ukrainian coast of the Azov Sea, which would isolate Crimea and remaining Russian-occupied territory.
- This would threaten Russia's Black Sea Fleet and be a major political blow to Putin's regime.
- Russian commanders will be heavily defending this area, potentially using older tanks as pillboxes and creating reserves for flanking counter-attacks.
- Ukraine may attack towards the Azov Sea to draw Russian reserves before striking elsewhere, or concentrate overwhelming force on the southern front.
Starving Crimea and Attacking Across the Dnipro
- If Ukraine reaches the coast, they could use long-range weapons to cut off the Kerch Strait Bridge, isolating Crimea.
- Attacking across the Dnipro River from Kherson could then be sensible to further isolate Russian forces.
- Taking the Kakhovka Dam would cut off Crimea's fresh water supply.
- Ukraine would not need to directly attack Crimea, just make it untenable to hold through long-range strikes on key targets like Dzhankoy.
Potential Donbas and Kharkiv Offensives
- Dense urban areas in Donetsk and Luhansk would make counter-offensives there very difficult.
- Ukraine could potentially exploit Russia's exhaustion around Bakhmut for a limited attack.
- A small offensive east of Kharkiv towards Starobilsk could allow Ukraine to strike the city with HIMARS, disrupting a key Russian logistics hub.
Long-Term Considerations and Western Support
- Ukraine will expend a lot of equipment in any major counter-offensives and will need continued Western support to maintain momentum.
- If successful, Ukraine may be able to make Crimea untenable and force Russia to the negotiating table.
- Russia's options are limited to throwing poorly trained mobilized troops at the problem, while Ukraine still has significant mobilization potential of its own.
- The deciding factor will be how long Ukraine's allies are willing to support them to win the war.
Wrap Up
Jonathan invites viewers to share their thoughts on the potential options for Ukrainian counter-offensives. He notes Ukraine has previously stated they have the resources for two major counter-offensives and to defend their gains, but wonders if they could manage one large southern offensive and a couple of smaller supporting attacks.
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