Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"If we need to mobilize, that's the least of our worries. We're in a bad, bad position if that is the case, and I would agree."
Hello Team!
Jonathan discusses a pro-Russian analysis from Rebar on the possibility of another mobilization in Russia. The analysis suggests that mobilization will only be announced if the situation at the front worsens significantly and regional recruitment efforts fail. Jonathan agrees that if Russia needs to mobilize again, it would indicate they are in a very difficult position.
Return to top⤴️
📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna Frontline
- Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk, with claims of repelled assaults and destroyed sabotage groups near Hryanykivka and Orlyanka.
- The ISW reports unsuccessful Russian operations near Nova Saliska, with geolocated footage suggesting marginal Russian gains north of Novoselivka.
- Fighting continues in the Zarichne and Yampolivka areas, with little movement in the forested areas over the past few weeks.
Bakhmut Sector
- Fighting continues around the MiG-17 monument and Tchaikovsky Street in southern Bakhmut, with Russian forces being driven back after Ukrainian counter-attacks.
- Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin appears concerned about the lack of Russian advance and the upcoming Ukrainian offensive, calling for help from Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.
- The ISW reports marginal Russian gains in Bakhmut, but Jonathan questions the timeliness of the geolocated footage used to support these claims.
- Russian sources express concern about potential Ukrainian attacks west of Bakhmut near Kostiantynivka and Chasiv Yar, with footage suggesting Ukrainian reinforcements in the area.
Avdiivka Sector
- Russian forces are increasing the tempo of operations north of Avdiivka to set conditions for encircling the settlement, employing more aviation units to support these efforts.
- The ISW assesses that the overall Russian spring offensive is likely approaching culmination, with Russian forces intensifying efforts to make marginal gains before losing the initiative to Ukraine.
- A Ukrainian military spokesperson stated that Russian forces have lost about three companies in assaults on Avdiivka since March 19th.
- Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell reports that Ukrainian forces are holding but taking huge losses in Avdiivka.
Marinka and Vuhledar Sectors
- The ISW reports fighting around Marinka, with Ukrainian artillery destroying a Russian assault group and BMP north of the city.
- Russian attacks were repelled around Vuhledar in the Donetsk Oblast.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- The Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces claimed to have destroyed a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group near Novodarivka, possibly indicating Ukrainian probing of the front line in preparation for a counteroffensive.
- Ukrainian artillery hit and destroyed a Russian base near Kamianske.
Kinburn Peninsula
Ukrainian strikes targeted an accumulation of Russian equipment and positions on the Kinburn Peninsula, with geolocated footage showing the destruction of vehicles and buildings in the Pokrovka area.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
Jonathan emphasizes the importance of the situations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut, noting that both cities face potential encirclement by Russian forces. He questions whether the Russians have the capacity to continue piling resources into Avdiivka and if the Ukrainians are willing to commit the necessary resources to maintain their defense while preparing for a counteroffensive. The developments in these areas over the coming days will be crucial to watch.
Return to top⤴️
