Ukraine War Update NEWS (20231128a): Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"Once we have started, we need to go to victory. Otherwise, there's no point in starting."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the usual caveats about the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses, which can be found in the video description. The numbers are low in most categories due to very poor weather conditions, including record-breaking storms in the Black Sea with 9-meter waves. However, the Russians still lost a surprisingly high 860 personnel.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Equipment Losses
According to Andrew Perpetua's count across social media, the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian equipment losses is back to a very heavy 4 or 5 to 1 in favour of Ukraine. The Russians lost surveillance drones, artillery including a TOS-1 thermobaric system and a Tolpan 240mm self-propelled mortar, and several tanks including T-90Ms. The Ukrainians lost an unknown self-propelled gun and a Polish-provided Krab howitzer. Jonathan notes that a lot of footage of destroyed Russian trucks doesn't get uploaded because it becomes repetitive, so the true losses are higher than what we see.
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Russian Volunteer Reveals Heavy Losses
A Russian army volunteer came to a church to ask for donations and accidentally revealed the horrible number of losses and miserable state of Russian soldiers in Donetsk. He said one regiment had over 1000 men killed in just 10 days. They are so desperate for basic equipment that they are handing out gloves instead of medals.
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Ukrainian Equipment Loss
A Ukrainian 5I57 deployable diesel electric generator, likely for an S-300PS air defense system, was completely destroyed by a Russian Lancet drone while being towed by a Kraz-260 truck. Lancet drone activity has immensely increased recently.
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Resistance Activities
- The exiled mayor of Melitopol said Ukrainian resistance blew up a car with pro-Russian Chechen fighters in it near the city.
- There are many railway arson attacks happening in Russia this year, with the first one just recorded in Dagestan where a relay box was burned out.
- Partisans set a significant fire at a military warehouse in Yakutsk.
Patriot Air Defense Takes Out Russian Aircraft
After 4 months, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihnat officially confirmed that a German-delivered Patriot battery was used to shoot down 2 fighter jets (Su-34 and Su-35) and 3 helicopters (two Mi-8 electronic warfare variants and a Mi-8) in the Bryansk region of Russia in May. Another Su-35 was shot down over the Black Sea. It was a brilliant operation that destroyed 5 aircraft in 5 minutes, one of the worst days for modern Russian aviation. Many theories at the time suggested Russia's own air defenses malfunctioned.
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Distant Strikes
- According to Russian media, a drone attack a couple nights ago on the Smolensk aircraft plant was successful and damaged two MiG-31 interceptors.
- Kryvyi Rih confirmed it was hit by a rocket last night.
- Explosions were heard in Russian-occupied Skadovsk in southern Kherson.
- A big explosion was reported over Donetsk city but it's unclear if anything was hit on the ground.
- Explosions were heard in Ryazan, Russia, 500km from Ukraine. Drones were reportedly shot down near the Ryazan oil refinery which produces gasoline, diesel and fuel oil. Ukraine has shown the ability to hit targets 700km or more from its borders.
- Another explosion occurred this morning in occupied Tokmak in southern Zaporizhzhia.
- Something is burning in Russian-occupied Horlivka between Avdiivka and Bakhmut where Ukraine has had some recent success.
Wife of Ukraine Intelligence Chief Poisoned
Mariana Budanova, the wife of Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, was hospitalized due to heavy metal poisoning in what appears to be an assassination attempt, according to a representative of the HUR intelligence agency. Her health deteriorated over a prolonged period. The HUR said the heavy metal substances found "are not used in any way in everyday life and military affairs" and their presence may indicate "a purposeful attempt to poison a specific person." Budanov himself has survived many assassination attempts, possibly as many as 352 according to some reports. Key Ukrainian officials are constantly being targeted.
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Economy and Spending
- The Ukrainian Economy Ministry launched an accelerator program with the Kyiv School of Economics for startups focused on demining, which will be a massive challenge for decades to come in the most heavily mined country in the world.
- According to the Moscow Times, Putin approved increasing Russian military spending to record levels not seen since the USSR. In 2024, 10.775 trillion rubles ($175 billion) will be spent on defense, 70% more than in 2023, 2.3 times more than in 2022, and 3 times higher than 2021. Russia is quietly putting its economy on a war footing and the West needs to recognize the threat this poses for Ukraine.
Wrap up
Jonathan will provide some analysis in the next update, referring to a recent talk by someone named Barons and an excellent interview with Justin Bronk on the War on the Rocks channel that is a must-watch. He warns that "shit's getting real" and if the West doesn't fully commit to supporting Ukraine, rather than the current "half-baked" efforts, we may really regret it for a long time to come. He signs off with "take care, speak to you soon, toodle pip!"
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