Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"They [Ukrainians] are building, and we've seen this previously, other places around Ukraine have underground schools that are protecting their children from missiles and drones that may rain down on them - it's sad, but at least the Ukrainians are working hard to protect their future"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:05⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update on the Ukraine War, indicating it is the first part of the update for the 5th of August 2024. He explains that he's pre-recording due to travel and apologises that the video won't cover the most up-to-date losses from the Ukrainian General Staff or any strikes from the night of the 4th. However, he highlights the availability of an AndrewUA list detailing losses for the previous day.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
AndrewUA Losses Data (Ukrainian & Russian)
🎦 01:05-05:58⏩
Jonathan dives into AndrewUA's recent compilation of losses for both sides, noting it reflects extensive losses, almost a one-to-one ratio. He systematically lists Ukrainian losses, including a Tor M1 air defense system, radar systems, drones, a recovery vehicle, artillery pieces, tanks (none Western-provided), infantry fighting vehicles (including Marders and Bradleys, possibly in the Prokofsk direction), and civilian vehicles. On the Russian side, losses include a Buk M1 or M2 air defense system, surveillance and communication equipment, recovery vehicles, a TOS-1A thermobaric launcher (as shown in the previous morning's video), a BM-21 Grad, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (with a high destruction ratio), APCs (mainly BTRs and MTLBs), and a significant number of destroyed civilian vehicles. Jonathan points out the higher survivability of Western equipment used by Ukrainians compared to Russian equipment, as previously analysed by Perrin.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Buk Missile System Destroyed in Tokmak
🎦 05:58-06:18⏩
Jonathan reports on the destruction of a Russian Buk surface-to-air missile system near Tokmak. Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance identified the system, which was then destroyed in a HIMARS rocket strike, causing significant damage to the surrounding area.
Return to top⤴️
Rostov-on-Don Submarine: Conflicting Reports on Status
🎦 06:19-07:12⏩
Jonathan addresses the conflicting reports surrounding the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don. While the Crimean Wind Telegram channel claims it was damaged but not sunk in the August 2nd attack, others claim its sinking based on satellite imagery showing the missing tarpaulin that housed it. Jonathan emphasises the need for more data to determine the submarine's actual status.
Return to top⤴️
S-400 System Strike in Crimea: Assessing the Damage
🎦 07:12-08:26⏩
Jonathan analyses reports about the alleged strike on an S-400 system. Initial reports suggested four launchers were destroyed, but satellite imagery from Maxar and others indicate damage to one radar, one damaged launcher, and one destroyed launcher. The status of the other two launchers remains unclear, with possibilities of their removal, damage, or relocation.
Return to top⤴️
Morozov Airbase Attack: Satellite Imagery Reveals Extensive Damage
🎦 08:26-09:59⏩
Jonathan reports on the aftermath of the drone attack on the Morozov airbase in Russia. He notes that 18 out of 40 drones penetrated Russian defences, with the remaining 22 possibly neutralised by electronic warfare— a better outcome for Russia compared to a previous attack. Satellite images confirm the complete destruction of ammunition depots at the base. While the extent of damage to aircraft remains uncertain, Jonathan emphasises the significant blow to the airbase's infrastructure and ammunition storage capacity.
Return to top⤴️
Large Fire in Rostov: Cause Unknown
🎦 09:59-10:23⏩
Jonathan reports a significant fire in Rostov, with a plume of smoke visible from distant locations. Although the cause remains unknown, potentially ranging from strikes to accidents, the incident has caused concern.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Partisans Target Russian Logistics in Donetsk
🎦 10:23-11:25⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian Center for National Resistance's report of an attack by the Atesh partisan group, who destroyed a crucial Russian logistics hub in occupied Donetsk. This attack, targeting a railway relay box, disrupts supply lines to Russian troops in Turetsk and Prokhorovka, areas where Russia has recently made gains. Jonathan connects this with Andrew Perpetua's observations on the success of Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian logistical lines, further highlighting the impact of these attacks.
Return to top⤴️
Distance Strikes and Explosions Across Ukraine
🎦 11:25-13:22⏩
Acknowledging his pre-recording limitations, Jonathan reports explosions in various Ukrainian regions, including Poltava, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv, suggesting overnight attacks. He predicts further news about these strikes, potentially involving drones and missiles. He also mentions daytime explosions in occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, and Mykhailivka, with reports indicating the use of 12 Western missiles. The focus of these strikes seems to be disrupting Russian military operations. Jonathan reiterates the ongoing debate surrounding Ukraine's desire for long-range missiles to strike Russian territory directly, a capability currently limited to drones.
Return to top⤴️
Explosions at Sovtaskaya Substation in Volgograd
🎦 13:22-13:44⏩
Continuing the theme of strikes, Jonathan reports explosions at the Sovtaskaya substation in Volgograd. He highlights a trend of Ukrainian attacks targeting Russian substations, aiming to disrupt energy distribution networks.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Offensives
🎦 13:48-17:53⏩
Jonathan delves into Paziparonin's analysis comparing the territorial changes during the Russian 2024 summer offensive and the Ukrainian 2023 summer offensive. Paziparonin's data reveals consistent Russian gains, particularly in June, with a recent resurgence after a slower period. In contrast, most significant Ukrainian territorial gains occurred in the initial two months of their offensive. By September 2023, Russian control had shrunk by 321.5 square kilometers, averaging 24.73 square kilometers per week. In comparison, Russia had captured 591.7 square kilometers between May 3rd and August 2nd, 2024, averaging 45 square kilometers weekly. Jonathan highlights the concentration of recent Russian progress in the Donetsk region, particularly near Ditorutynia, the Prokhorovka salient, and the New York area. He acknowledges the limitations of Paziparonin's methodology, which relies on polygon measurements and might overestimate occupied areas due to the inclusion of water bodies.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine Prepares Underground Schools as Shelters
🎦 17:53-18:35⏩
Shifting focus, Jonathan highlights the construction of underground schools in Zaporizhzhia, designed to double as nuclear fallout shelters, providing safety for 57,000 students from missile strikes. He acknowledges the sad necessity of such measures while commending Ukrainians for safeguarding their children's future.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Athletes' Success at the World Athletics Championships
🎦 18:35-19:09⏩
Jonathan celebrates the success of Ukrainian athletes at the World Athletics Championships, particularly Yaroslava Mahuchik's gold medal win in the high jump, where Ukraine secured both gold and bronze. He also notes a bronze medal win in the men's hammer throw, placing Ukraine 17th in the medal table with two golds, one silver, and three bronze medals.
Return to top⤴️
Military Aid: F-16 Updates and Western Arms Production in Ukraine
🎦 19:09-26:54⏩
This segment focuses on military aid, beginning with updates on F-16 fighter jets. Zelensky announces a "new phase" for the Ukrainian Air Force, transitioning to Western combat aviation standards. He expresses gratitude towards partners, particularly Denmark, the Netherlands, and the United States, for their support in securing F-16s for Ukraine. While acknowledging initial scepticism, Zelensky celebrates this achievement as a testament to Ukrainian ambition and defence needs. Sirsky, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, suggests that the arrival of F-16s will lead to more downed missiles and potentially enemy aircraft. However, Jonathan expresses reservations about the feasibility of Ukrainian F-16s engaging in dogfights with more experienced Russian pilots, particularly given their role as primarily beyond-visual-range combat platforms. He emphasizes the importance of superior radar technology for success in such engagements. Jonathan discusses reports suggesting that the F-16s provided to Ukraine are equipped with advanced helmet-mounted sights (JHMCS) that enhance targeting capabilities by allowing pilots to aim using their gaze direction. He also addresses speculation surrounding two F-16 airframes displayed during a ceremony, with some analysts, including Andrew Perpetua, suggesting they might be decoys rather than operational aircraft. Jonathan shifts focus to the expanding production of Western arms within Ukraine. He reports that at least seven Western manufacturers, including Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, Baykar, CZ, and Sellier & Bellot, have commenced or are planning to produce weapons in Ukraine. These companies represent a range of specializations, from tanks and armoured vehicles to ammunition and drones, further bolstering Ukraine's defence industry.
Return to top⤴️
Mali Severs Diplomatic Ties with Ukraine
🎦 26:54-27:15⏩
In a geopolitical development, Jonathan reports that Mali has cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine, likely in response to the alleged involvement of Ukrainian special forces in assisting rebels fighting against Wagner mercenaries. This action underscores the complex geopolitical ramifications of the conflict.
Return to top⤴️
Protest at Ukrainian Recruitment Centre Raises Concerns
🎦 27:15-27:52⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions a protest at a Ukrainian recruitment centre sparked by the detention of three young men. Ukrainian officials suspect Russian involvement, alleging manipulation of the situation through social media, drawing parallels to similar incidents occurring in the UK.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap Up
🎦 27:52-28:27⏩
Jonathan concludes the update, acknowledging the absence of the latest overnight developments due to pre-recording. He expresses hope that viewers found the information useful and thanks them for their continued support. He signs off, mentioning potential travel disruptions and expressing a desire to return with further updates soon.
Return to top⤴️
