Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, Massive Ukr Strikes
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
"So if you’re wondering about the reliability of Ukrainian general staff figures then we piece together this jigsaw here’s another data point to throw into the mix"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:11⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Daily Losses - High Russian Attrition
🎦 00:11-03:05⏩
- Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses on 28th September 2024 (the day prior to this video).
- He notes that while some figures are down from recent highs, they are still very significant.
- Key Figures:
- Personnel: 1,170 (down but still extremely high)
- Tanks: 9 (average)
- Troop Carrying Vehicles: 38 (more than double the average)
- Artillery Systems: 62 (more than triple the average - very significant)
- Drones: 93 (high - Russia still swarming Ukrainian skies)
- Jonathan highlights that these losses are unsustainable in the long term, and questions how Ukraine's losses compare. He references the heavy fighting in Vuhledar, and speculates about potential Ukrainian casualties.
- Using Andrew Perpetua's loss lists, Jonathan estimates the overall loss ratio is about 3:1 in favour of Ukraine, and potentially as high as 4:1 for combat assets.
Ukrainian Losses
🎦 03:05-04:10⏩
- Jonathan reviews Ukrainian losses using Andrew Perpetua's visualised list.
- Key Losses:
- A2S6 Tunguska short-range air defence system
- Search Radar (potentially damaged)
- Comms, surveillance equipment and Starlinks
- Recovery vehicles
- Bren 1 armoured vehicle
- BTS 4 armoured recovery vehicle
- Older artillery pieces
- T-64 tanks
- BMP-1s
- APCs and MRAPs
- 1x Land Rover (Jonathan hopes this isn't one recently supplied by the UK)
- A significant number of civilian vehicles are also noted as destroyed.
Russian Losses
🎦 04:10-06:25⏩
- Jonathan reviews Russian losses using Andrew Perpetua's visualised list.
- He highlights the sheer volume of equipment destroyed, including:
- Tanks
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles
- Electronic Warfare equipment
- Radar
- AM-1 Recovery Vehicle
- There is footage of a Russian jetski with two onboard being destroyed by an FPV drone. Jonathan remarks "it's horrible of course you're seeing people effectively almost certainly die there" and questions the wisdom of travelling down the middle of a river.
- Jonathan notes a substantial number of D-30 towed artillery pieces destroyed, and a possible MLRS.
- The destruction of a significant number of tanks (predominantly T-80s and T-62s) is highlighted.
- A significant proportion of the equipment is listed as destroyed or abandoned, indicating the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics.
The Human Cost of War
🎦 06:25-08:01⏩
- Jonathan reflects on the human cost of the conflict.
- He mentions a video showing 14 dead Russian soldiers. While not showing the footage, he uses this example to highlight the true impact of the reported casualty figures, noting that a single image represents a significant percentage of the daily death toll.
- He then shows footage of what is described as a Russian mass grave in Kursk, with coffins being loaded in. Jonathan states that the footage cannot be fully verified but that it "appears to be Russian bodies being loaded into a mass Russian grave."
- This example, along with the image of 14 dead soldiers, is used to emphasise that the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses are likely to be credible, given the supporting evidence.
Russian Troops Killed While Attempting to Surrender
🎦 08:01-09:00⏩
- Jonathan discusses footage released by Ukraine of an incident where Russian troops were killed by their own side while attempting to surrender.
- The footage shows seven Russian soldiers lying down to surrender under the watch of a Ukrainian drone.
- As they are about to surrender, they are hit by Russian artillery fire.
- Jonathan remarks "But yeah, so instead Russia tried to murder them when they stepped out of their positions to follow the drone."
- It is unclear whether the Russian soldiers were aware it was their own side firing on them.
- Jonathan brands the incident as "pretty despicable."
The Depressing Reality of Russian Attacks on Civilians
🎦 09:00-11:09⏩
- Jonathan reads a comment from Andrew Perpetua, who manages the Ukrainian equipment loss lists: "The strikes on civilians the past few days have been incredibly depressing to read about. Maybe Brendan can make a list of all the news stories or something."
- Jonathan provides some context, explaining that Andrew Perpetua joined him for a recent live stream with Brendan Kelly. He encourages viewers to watch the stream.
- He goes on to explain that Brendan Kelly, from Ukraine, is working to document civilian deaths in the conflict.
- Jonathan quotes Andrew Perpetua again: "But last night I went through all of the news to add into our logging system. I had like 2000 messages to read and it is just all like this old lady was killed, this old man was killed, these two old women lost their legs, this little kid was wounded, these people died delivering water to an old man etc."
- Jonathan reinforces the point, stating: "Even if you ignore the bigger strikes like the strike on a hospital today... even ignoring those and just looking at the one-off events that happen every single day, the numbers add up. One here, one there, adds up to hundreds and hundreds before you know it."
- He emphasises that these attacks on the civilian population are deliberate and purposeful acts of murder by Russia.
Russians Kill Ukrainian Supreme Court Judge
🎦 11:09-12:08⏩
- Jonathan reports that Leonid Liaboiuk, a 61-year-old judge of the Ukrainian Supreme Court, has been killed by the Russians.
- Judge Liaboiuk was delivering humanitarian aid in the Kharkiv region when his car was hit by a Russian FPV drone.
- Three other civilians in the car were injured in the attack.
- Whether a targeted attack or not, Jonathan highlights that this is clearly a war crime, stating: "There is no excuse for hitting a civilian car unless you’ve got really good reason to think it’s military personnel in the car."
- He compares the incident to a US Supreme Court judge being killed, demonstrating the significance of the loss.
Russian Colonel Linked to Shahed Drones Killed Near Moscow
🎦 12:08-13:06⏩
- Jonathan discusses the assassination of a Russian Colonel linked to the Shahed drone programme.
- Colonel Oleksii Kolometesv, head of the Russian Defence Ministry's 924th State Centre for Drones, was killed in an attack near Moscow on the 27th September 2024.
- Ukrainian intelligence claims that the assassination was carried out by a local resistance movement.
- Colonel Kolometesv was responsible for training drone operators, including those operating the Shahed-136 drones used extensively in attacks on Ukraine.
- Jonathan highlights the significance of this attack, being a targeted assassination deep inside Russia.
Failed Attack on Russian Supply Train
🎦 13:06-14:42⏩
- Jonathan reports on a failed attack on a Russian supply train in the Samara region.
- An explosive device detonated as the train was crossing a bridge, causing some damage but not destroying the bridge or train.
- Jonathan questions whether the attack might have weakened the bridge in the long term.
- The attack is seen as further evidence of resistance and instability within Russia.
- Jonathan notes that there have been increasing reports of discontent within Russia, fuelled by the ongoing war, the worsening economic situation, and the mounting casualties. He references reports from sources such as Times Radio, Silicon Curtain, and Military News, all suggesting growing unease with the Kremlin.
- He questions how long this can continue before a breaking point is reached.
- Jonathan believes that even if Russia were to achieve a military victory, they would become a pariah state subject to long-term sanctions. He notes that Russia's hopes are pinned on a Trump victory in the upcoming US election, as Trump has pledged to lift sanctions.
- Jonathan argues that the war is deeply damaging to Russia in the long term, and that those who genuinely care about the country should be opposed to it.
Russian Helicopter Crashes in Pakistan
🎦 14:42-16:18⏩
- Jonathan reports on a helicopter crash in Pakistan that killed six people and injured eight.
- The helicopter was reportedly carrying Russian nationals and was rented by an oil exploration company.
- Given the involvement of Ukrainian special forces in operations in other countries (Sudan, Mali), Jonathan speculates that this incident could be something other than an accident, suggesting possible Ukrainian involvement.
- He acknowledges that this is just speculation but believes it is a plausible explanation.
Distance Strikes: A Relatively Quiet Night (But Still Significant)
🎦 16:18-17:27⏩
- Jonathan discusses Russian distance strikes over the previous night, describing it as a "quiet night" with only 22 drones launched into Ukraine.
- However, he emphasises that this is still a significant number and that Russia has significantly ramped up production of Shahed drones.
- 20 out of the 22 drones were intercepted, with 15 shot down and 5 grounded by electronic warfare.
- The remaining two drones got through, but their targets are unknown.
Update on the Sumi Hospital Drone Attack
🎦 17:27-17:48⏩
- Jonathan provides an update on the Russian drone strike on the Sumi hospital, first mentioned in an earlier topic.
- The final casualty figures are 10 dead and 19 wounded.
- Among the dead is a nurse.
- The hospital was hit twice in quick succession.
- Jonathan speculates that the hospital would likely have had minimal air defences, as Russia would not normally be expected to target such facilities.
Russian Guided Bomb Attack on Zaporizhzhia
🎦 17:48-22:07⏩
- Jonathan discusses the Russian use of guided glide bombs to attack Zaporizhzhia city.
- He expresses his frustration at the lack of attention these attacks receive, drawing a comparison with the Israel-Gaza conflict, which he believes receives disproportionate coverage.
- While acknowledging the seriousness of the situation in Gaza, Jonathan argues that the conflict in Ukraine has far greater global geopolitical consequences, involving major powers like Russia, China and potentially leading to a wider conflict.
- He argues that the scale of the conflict in Ukraine is also far larger, with an estimated million casualties.
- Jonathan then describes the attack on Zaporizhzhia in more detail.
- At least 10, and possibly as many as 14, guided bombs were dropped on civilian areas of the city.
- Jonathan emphasises that this was an attack on a purely civilian target, stating: "This is not a military target. This is not a military target. Okay?"
- He expresses his anger and disgust at the Russian tactic of deliberately targeting civilians.
- Jonathan criticises the mainstream media for failing to cover these attacks adequately, arguing that they happen so frequently they become normalised and ignored.
- He believes it is important to keep highlighting the severity of the war.
Massive Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russia
🎦 22:07-24:59⏩
- In contrast to the Russian attacks on civilians, Jonathan highlights the Ukrainian approach of targeting military and logistical targets.
- He discusses the large-scale Ukrainian drone attack on Russia overnight, noting that it was the largest since the attack on Russian fuel depots.
- Jonathan says that he has been expecting such a large-scale attack for some time, as it was clear Ukraine had been building up its drone capacity.
- According to Russian sources, at least 125 Ukrainian drones were involved in the attacks on various Russian regions.
- Jonathan believes the true figure is likely to be higher. He speculates that Russia is likely shooting down a large number of drones, but that the sheer size of the country and the number of potential targets means that Ukrainian drones will inevitably get through if they are launched in sufficient numbers.
- He uses the example of the recent attack on the Toropets ammunition depot, where it is claimed that 100 drones were launched in order to overwhelm defences and allow 10 to get through.
- Jonathan summarises the Russian claims of drones shot down over different regions:
- Volgograd: 67
- Rostov: 18
- Belgorod: 17
- Voronezh: 17
- Krasnodar: 1
- Bryansk: 1
- Kursk: 1
- Sea of Azov: 3
- Key targets reportedly hit include:
- Ammunition warehouse in Kotluban (Volgograd region), with reports that Iranian ballistic missiles were stored there.
- Military airfield in Yeisk (Krasnodar region)
- Jonathan quotes user MAX 24: "MAD of Russia claims they shot down 125 And the explosions have been heard in a large ammunition arsenal in Kotluban."
- Additional explosions were also reported in other locations:
- Jaisk airfield
- Baltimore airfield
- Near Volgodonsk nuclear power plant
- Promorskoe Akhtarsk (Russian Shahed drone launch site)
- Voronezh city
- Jonathan quotes a user comment: "As Nolreport says, it was hot in Russia overnight."
- He also notes that debris from one downed drone reportedly hit a residential building.
Ukrainian Special Forces Attack on Kotluban Ammunition Depot
🎦 24:59-28:30⏩
- Jonathan provides further detail on the attack on the ammunition depot in Kotluban, Volgograd region.
- Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Security Service of Ukraine are all said to have been involved in the attack.
- The depot is believed to have been used by the Russians to store and upgrade missiles and artillery, including Iranian-supplied weapons.
- A new shipment of Iranian missiles is reported to have arrived at the depot just before the attack.
- Jonathan speculates that the Ukrainians may be using satellite imagery to track weapons shipments and then timing their attacks to inflict maximum damage – hitting depots just after deliveries arrive.
- He quotes Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Centre for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine: "Kokloban, Volgograd region, the ammunition arsenal of the main directorate of missile and artillery weapons of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation was attacked. I don’t know why they have such long names. Part of Iranian ballistics, as well as launchers for them, were stored there."
- There is some uncertainty as to whether the Iranian missiles and launchers were destroyed in the attack.
- Jonathan notes a comment from Tim White confirming the Ukrainian claims.
- However, a video purporting to show the attack has been dismissed by some sources as old footage from Dubai.
- Despite this, other videos and reports seem to confirm that an attack did take place.
Confirmation of Attack on Millerovo Airfield
🎦 28:30-30:11⏩
- Jonathan reports that an attack on Millerovo military airfield in Rostov appears to have been confirmed.
- The Russian media reported that the airfield was attacked by more than 20 Ukrainian drones.
- NASA's FIRMS fire monitoring system detected multiple fires at the airfield.
- Jonathan notes that it is more effective to target airfield infrastructure, fuel and lubricant stores rather than runways, as this will cause more disruption in the long run and is more difficult to repair.
- He speculates that the fires detected by FIRMS could indicate that fuel and lubricant storage was targeted in this attack.
Further Detail on the Millerovo Airfield Attack
🎦 30:11-32:28⏩
- Jonathan provides additional information and speculation about the Millerovo airfield attack.
- He displays a map showing the location of the airfield in relation to Ukraine.
- FIRMS data shows significant fires not just at the airfield itself, but also in the surrounding area.
- Jonathan speculates that these could either be the result of Russian air defences shooting down Ukrainian drones, or (more likely) that Ukrainian drones deliberately targeted air defence systems in the vicinity of the airfield.
- The Russians claim that all 20 drones involved in the attack were shot down, but NASA's FIRMS data suggests otherwise.
Speculation Regarding Targets at Millerovo Airfield
🎦 32:28-33:19⏩
- Jonathan shows images of the Millerovo airfield and surrounding area, and speculates about the specific targets of the Ukrainian drone attack.
- He highlights a particular area where a large fire is visible.
- Some commentators suggest this could be debris from a downed drone, but Jonathan believes it is equally plausible that it is the site of an air defence system targeted by Ukrainian drones.
- He also notes that explosions were heard in the vicinity of Smiljansk in Volgodansk, close to a nuclear power plant.
- Power outages were also reported in this area, leading to speculation that the power plant may have been targeted.
Large Fire Near Tambov Military Base
🎦 33:19-34:46⏩
- Jonathan discusses a large forest fire that broke out near military unit 55443 in the Tambov region on 28th September.
- He recalls reporting on this incident in a previous video, and notes that it now appears to have been much more extensive than initially thought.
- The fire is thought to have started at a Russian military base and then spread to a nearby training ground.
- While Russian media claimed this was just a forest fire, Jonathan speculates that it may have been caused by a Ukrainian attack on fuel and lubricant stores at the base, pointing out the facility's proximity to what appears to be an airbase.
- He notes a comment from Intel Schizo: "And that’s now a fourth Russian ammo depot up in smoke," referring to the Tambov incident.
- Jonathan acknowledges that it is impossible to be certain at this stage but that it is a plausible explanation.
- He also shares a comment from another user, Paul Healy, suggesting the fire at Tambov was a "huge inferno".
- Further OSINT analysis will be required to determine the full extent of the damage.
The Psychological Impact of the War
🎦 34:46-39:10⏩
- Jonathan shares a comment from a viewer who describes having a "sharp intake of breath" after seeing drone footage in a car review video. The viewer explains: "I thought it was going to be blown up. I’ve been watching too many war in Ukraine reports."
- Jonathan agrees with the sentiment, stating: "So true. I get that."
- He explains how he now associates all drone footage with the war in Ukraine.
- Jonathan then returns to the previous topic of the attack on the Sumi Hospital, providing more context. He explains that the information about the double-tap drone strike came to light while he was watching the BBC documentary "The Zelensky Story".
- He digresses to praise the quality of the documentary and recommends it to viewers.
- Jonathan goes on to describe a segment from the documentary that shows Ukrainian military headquarters monitoring incoming Russian threats in real time.
- Unfortunately, he is unable to show the clip due to copyright restrictions, but explains that it shows how the Ukrainians are able to monitor and track Russian missiles and drones as they cross the border.
Ukrainian Colonel Relieved of Command
🎦 37:00-38:10⏩
- Jonathan reports that Colonel Ivan Vinnyk, commander of the Ukrainian 72nd Brigade, has been relieved of his command.
- The 72nd Brigade were responsible for defending Vuhledar, which saw extremely heavy fighting.
- Jonathan notes that some believe Colonel Vinnyk has been made a scapegoat for the loss of the town, while others speculate that he was removed from his post due to his criticism of the Ukrainian military command.
- There are also rumours that the 72nd Brigade were ordered to hold Vuhledar at all costs for political reasons, as a defeat during Zelensky's visit to Washington would have been damaging.
- Jonathan concludes by saying he will follow the story.
Wrap up
🎦 39:10-39:20⏩
- Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and their support.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
None
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
This is going to be tough - Jonathan packs a lot into his videos.
Overall Strategy
Break it down: Split the task into smaller, manageable chunks.
Prioritise accuracy: Get spellings correct, especially Ukrainian place names.
Understand context: Jonathan's analysis and opinions are key.
Be comprehensive: Don't miss any important details.
Steps for Each Video
Task 1: Extract Title, Date, and Part: Straightforward extraction using string manipulation.
Task 2: Identify and Title Topics: This requires careful listening/reading and summarisation. The aim is to create specific, informative titles.
Task 3: Determine Topic Timeframes: Note the start and end timestamps for each topic. This will also help in verifying if any topics are missed.
Task 4: Summarise Each Topic: Provide concise, informative summaries, highlighting key points, sources, and Jonathan's opinions.
Task 5: Select a Quote: Find a quote that reflects the essence of the video – insightful, funny, or thought-provoking.
Task 6: List Queries: Be honest about any uncertainties and seek clarification. This helps improve the process.
