Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"The visual contrast between an American president with his signature aviator sunglasses walking in sunny downtown Kiev with the pugnacious eloquent president of Ukraine and a Russian president who has yet to visit the war zone is striking."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest update on the Ukraine war news for 21st February 2023. He starts with the usual caveats about the accuracy of the figures from Ukraine on Russian losses, which could contain propaganda but are still indicative of what happened the day before.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 760 liquidated personnel (high but slightly lower than the past week)
- 10 tanks, 9 APCs (decent losses but less than before)
- 4 artillery systems, 5 drones, 1 vehicle/fuel tank, 1 piece of special equipment
Russia on Fire
A new bridge being built in Novosibirsk mysteriously caught fire, with the blaze breaking out over 100 meters in the air on the new construction. This is not good news for Russia.
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Failed Russian Missile Launch
Russia was mystified why its missile launch spectacularly failed, with all its rockets exploding almost as soon as they were airborne. Russia claims Ukraine has moved the Patriot air defense system to the border in Kharkiv region, but it's unclear if this is true. The reasons for the failure could be sabotage, poor equipment, or the missiles being taken out by air defense.
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Changes in Russian Tactics
According to the spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, Russia has changed tactics for missile strikes:
- Previously, massive attacks every ~2 weeks. Now, small portions fired over rivers, traveling low.
- Nighttime strikes, hiding missiles in riverbeds
- This sometimes allows them to bypass air defense
- Expecting 100+ missiles for war anniversary (Feb 22-24)
Russian Offensive Preparations
Intelligence suggests Russia is pulling additional forces to the Donetsk direction (Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Marinka). Battalion numbers have increased from 160 to 190, even if under strength. A major offensive is expected for February 24th. There are rumors of up to 5,000 Russian troops ready to reinforce the offensive in the Vuhledar area alone.
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Russian Air Force Activity
Russian sources report an extremely high level of activity at military airfields and air bases near the Ukrainian border. A large number of combat aircraft, including fighters, strategic and tactical bombers, are said to have arrived within the last several hours.
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Wagner Group Struggles
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner PMC, said artillery shell deliveries were stopped due to his complicated relations with Russian defense ministry officials. Wagner personnel on the ground have appealed in videos saying they have no ammunition, particularly mortar and howitzer shells. It seems the Russian regular forces are either supplanting Wagner in the Bakhmut area or not providing them with needed supplies. There is video evidence of animosity between regular soldiers and Wagner.
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Potential Russian Mobilization
Ukraine's intelligence department (GUR) says Russia is preparing to select full-time students for its next mobilization. State alert stations are to be established for military commissars to issue sentences to students. There has been much speculation about a second massive mobilization, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a huge mobilization drive after the war's anniversary.
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Putin's Speech
As Jonathan records the video, Putin is giving a big talk and has referred to the conflict as a "war" for the first time. He said, "We have attempted every opportunity for peace. We did everything possible to resolve this in a peaceful way. We will now carefully solve each task step by step." Putin claims it was the West that unleashed war, not Russia. He said, "The West's goal is to put an end to this once and for all." More details to come in future updates.
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China Warned Over Arms to Russia
The EU's High Representative for Foreign Policy, Joseph Borrell, officially warned China that any arms deliveries to Russia would be a red line in relations with the EU. The Chinese foreign ministry replied that it is the US constantly supplying weapons to the battlefield. China and Hungary have declared themselves ready to cooperate to end the war in Ukraine.
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Russia's Plans for Belarus
A leaked document written for Putin's administration envisages the total incorporation of Belarus into a union state with Russia by 2030. This has caused quite a stir. Lots to discuss regarding Lukashenko's changing stance since 2014 due to his reliance on Putin for power.
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Russian Threats to Infrastructure
Dutch military intelligence claims Russian special services are preparing to attack infrastructure targets, including gas and oil pipelines, submarine cables and wind farms in the North Sea. The Dutch have a lot of interest in the area with Shell. Could we see another Nord Stream type incident? Jonathan wrote a big article on Nord Stream, sitting on the fence but marginally thinking Russia was responsible. It's a very divisive issue.
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Visual Contrast of Presidents
There is a striking visual contrast between Biden, with his signature aviator sunglasses, walking in sunny Kiev with Zelensky, and Putin, who has yet to visit the war zone. Biden's visit provided great photo opportunities, with him wearing a blue and yellow striped tie against a backdrop of blue and yellow buildings under a blue sky. This is in stark contrast to Putin staying back in Russia.
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Russia's Deception
A year ago, Russia's ambassador in Washington said, "There is no invasion and there is no such plans." Evidence suggests the decision to invade and the plans were so secretive, concocted by very few in the Kremlin's higher echelons, that many who should have known didn't. Either way, the result is clear - don't trust what the Russians say.
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US Military Aid to Ukraine
The US Department of Defense released an official list of additional security assistance for Ukraine, totaling just under $500 million. While most of it is a continual flow of needed ammunition and equipment, there are some notable items:
- High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) ammunition
- 155mm and 120mm artillery and mortar rounds
- Air surveillance radars
- Additional Javelin systems and 2000 anti-armor rockets
- 4 Bradley M7 Fire Support Team vehicles (point-and-shoot/laze system for calling precision artillery fire)
- Demolition munitions and equipment
- Night vision devices, tactical secure communication systems, medical supplies, and spare parts
Potential Abrams Tanks for Ukraine
The US is considering transferring Abrams tanks to Ukraine from storage bases rather than new ones from factories, according to Breaking Defense. The decision is not final. They want to avoid sending tanks with depleted uranium armor, which is very dense and protects against dense projectiles, as they don't want the technology falling into Russian hands. If sent from storage, the tanks could arrive sooner than the previously stated timeline of next year.
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German and Swiss Issues
German defense manufacturer Rheinmetall said Marder IFVs will be delivered to Ukraine in March. However, ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft tanks will take until summer as Rheinmetall has to make it themselves. Switzerland is refusing to export or allow other countries to export the ammunition due to their neutrality laws, causing Switzerland's defense industry to lose out.
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Bradley Fighting Vehicle Sighting
An image purportedly showing one of the US Bradley Fighting Vehicles in active use inside Ukraine has surfaced. Jonathan jokingly says he's not sure if you can tell it's Ukrainian sky or a Ukrainian cloud in the limited view.
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Serbia Refuses Russian Fighters
In a significant move, Serbia, which is broadly pro-Russia, refuses to buy Russian fighter jets and will instead purchase French Rafales. Serbia claims it has become impossible to maintain the Russian MiG-29s they last received in 2017. This shows Russia is continuing to lose the Serbian arms market, one of the last loyal European countries not joining sanctions and historically buying Russian weapons. It's a sign of trouble for Russia's defense export industry, the second largest in the world.
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Long-Range Missiles for Ukraine
According to Ukraine's Defense Minister, the country will receive long-range missiles capable of striking targets 150-200 km away in the first half of this year. However, they likely won't be ATACMS. Britain has promised to be the first to provide such missiles, possibly the air-launched Storm Shadow or ship-launched Harpoon missiles adapted for ground launch. The specific missile type is unknown.
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New EU Sanctions
The EU will approve a 10th package of sanctions against Russia, worth some 11 billion euros in trade flows, before February 24th according to the EU's foreign policy chief, Joseph Borrell. The sanctions are designed to make financing the war more difficult and starve Russia of parts needed to build arms. These parts still seem to be getting through to some extent, allowing Russia to continue its aggression.
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Wrap up
Jonathan notes there will be a lot more to say about Putin's ongoing speech, which he'll cover in a later update. He thanks viewers and mentions an upcoming frontline update video.
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