Ukraine War Update EXTRA: On Offensive Strategies
Table of Contents 📖
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"It's so difficult trying to juggle all these variables and work out what the best option is when one of your objectives is going to be not to lose troops."
Hello Team!
Jonathan shares some musings on offensive strategies for Ukraine, following on from a previous video about moral philosophy and strategy. He recorded this video previously but wanted to add additional context.
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Liberating Luhansk Oblast
Jonathan discusses a potential Ukrainian incursion through the Svatove to Kreminna area, across the PC6 highway and Krasna River, to take Starobilsk and liberate the entire Luhansk Oblast. However, he points out that this would leave Ukraine with a much longer front line to defend, potentially 3-4 times the current length, which could be counterproductive in the short term.
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The Paradox of Ukraine
Ukraine faces a difficult balance in their offensive strategy. They want to push Russia to a point where they have no choice but to negotiate, with Ukraine in a strong position. However, there is a risk that if Ukraine is too successful, Putin may resort to extreme measures like nuclear weapons. Jonathan calls this the "paradox of Ukraine" - the better they do, the more likely Putin is to do something crazy.
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Defining Objectives and Strategy
Jonathan emphasises that Ukraine's objectives will define their strategy and tasks. For example, in the Kherson offensive, if the objective was to retake territory without losing troops, then their approach was a massive success. However, if the objective was to kill as many soldiers or capture as much equipment as possible, it would be considered a failure. Without knowing Ukraine's true intentions, it's difficult to advise on the best course of action.
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Potential Offensive Strategies
Jonathan suggests that Ukraine could focus on disrupting Russian logistics while keeping their troops safe. He discusses the importance of establishing a wide bridgehead when attacking to avoid being cut off and isolated by Russian forces. One potential strategy could be to attack through the Melitopol-Berdyansk-Mariupol area, cutting off Russian supply lines to Crimea. This could be combined with attacks on key logistical points like the Kerch Bridge and rail lines. Jonathan believes that the focus should be on starving the Russian army of supplies, causing them to lose the will and ability to fight, rather than engaging in direct, costly confrontations like the meat grinder in the Donetsk front.
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Wrap up
Jonathan concludes by inviting viewers to share their thoughts on his musings and whether they make sense. He acknowledges that the video ended up being longer than the intended five minutes.
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