Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update, Bakhmut Analysis
Table of Contents 📖
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"Bakhmut has been important. It has served its strategic value and even if it was abandoned today, it is of little geographic, military or economic value and soon Ukraine will have new victories to offset its political value."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the Ukraine war frontlines for April 6, 2023. He mentions the Kremlin is struggling to maintain loyalty among regional authorities as it continues to place the burden of funding the war on Russian federal subjects. Recent dismissals and investigations into Russian military leadership are also discussed.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Winter Offensive Failure
Jonathan shares analysis from Tendar, a German source, on the failure of the Russian winter offensive. The Russians aimed to take the entire Donbas and areas east of the Oskil River but made little to no advances, wasting huge amounts of resources. The political conclusion would have been for Russia to declare victory and demand a new border, but in reality, it was an "epic disaster" for Russia.
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Northeast Sector Update
- Limited activity reported between Kupyansk and Kreminna
- Russian sources claim advances near Masyutivka and Zhuravka gully, but no confirmation
- Unsuccessful Russian attempts to advance from Shiplivka towards the Serebransk forest and Torske
- Ukrainian forces have retaken some ground in the forest area south of Kreminna
- Russian forces using TOS-1 thermobaric rocket systems to shell Ukrainian positions south of Kreminna
Bakhmut Update
- President Zelensky states Ukrainian forces will withdraw from Bakhmut if necessary to avoid encirclement, but do not yet assess the need to do so
- The ISW agrees that Ukrainian military leadership will order a withdrawal when deemed the most strategically appropriate option
- It remains to be seen if Ukraine's defence of Bakhmut and its efficacy in fixing Russian forces is worth Ukrainian losses
- Poulet-Voulon's map shows Ukrainian gains southwest of Bakhmut, south of the T-0504 main supply route, keeping ground lines of communication open
- Russians struggling to make advances northwest near Bohdanivka
- Thermobaric munitions being used by Russian forces in Bakhmut, which can be highly effective in urban terrain
Importance of Defending Bakhmut
Jonathan shares insightful analysis from a commenter, Defective, on why defending Bakhmut has been strategically important for Ukraine:
- Bakhmut itself has limited strategic value geographically, militarily, economically or politically
- However, Ukraine needed to prevent Russia from regenerating its forces over the winter and launching a potentially successful spring offensive
- By defending Bakhmut and other Donbas cities fiercely, Ukraine coerced Russia to commit to a costly offensive, exhausting their forces and resources
- This bought time for Ukraine to train troops, bring in equipment and prepare for a spring counter-offensive
- So even if Bakhmut falls, its defence will have served a vital strategic purpose for Ukraine
Avdiivka and Marinka Update
- Russian ground attacks reported near Avdiivka from multiple directions, but Ukrainian forces claim to have repelled them
- Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces advanced to positions west of Novobakhmutivka on April 4, unclear if they maintain them
- Near Marinka, Ukraine reportedly pushing back with no Russian advances
- Pule-Volon's map shows Ukrainian regained territory around Pobjeda, south of Marinka
Southern Front Update
- Russian source claims breakthrough of Ukrainian defences in eastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast from Dorozhnyanka towards Huliaipole, but ISW cannot confirm
- Ukrainian General Staff reports no Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk
- Russian MoD claims repelling 3 Ukrainian sabotage/recon groups in western Donetsk
- Fighting and shelling reported around Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and Kherson region, with each side blaming the other for attacks on infrastructure and settlements
Wrap Up
Jonathan apologises for the longer update and reiterates the importance of the Bakhmut analysis. He appreciates viewer support and comments. Please like, subscribe and share the channel.
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