Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"And if you are a fan of Elon Musk still, then you are morally compromised. There is no way about it. No two ways."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the third part of his Ukraine War Update for 17th November 2024, focusing on geopolitics and the interconnectedness of global events.
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Russian Missile and Drone Strikes on Ukraine
🎦 00:29-01:58⏩
- Russia launched 210 aerial pieces of ordnance, including missiles and drones, into Ukraine.
- There are concerns that Russia may have stockpiled enough ordnance to continue these strikes nightly, potentially causing significant damage to Ukraine.
- Jonathan expresses his concern about the potential for sustained attacks and expects Russia to use several months' worth of missiles in a few days.
International Reactions to Russian Strikes and Telephone Diplomacy
🎦 01:58-02:44⏩
- Donald Tusk criticizes telephone diplomacy, stating that it cannot replace real support for Ukraine, particularly in light of the recent Russian attacks.
- Tusk's criticism is directed at German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had phoned Putin, a move that was not well-received by Ukraine.
- The wave of Russian attacks following Scholz's call emphasizes the ineffectiveness of telephone diplomacy in deterring Russian aggression.
Russian Agent Arrested in Bosnia, Czech Republic Returns to Russian Gas
🎦 02:44-03:47⏩
- Bosnian police arrest a Russian suspected of training agents in Moldova to destabilize the country, highlighting Russia's wider efforts to undermine European stability.
- The Czech Republic has increased imports of Russian gas due to the rising cost of alternative energy sources, a move that benefits Russia despite its actions in Ukraine.
- Jonathan expresses his disappointment with the Czech Republic's decision, noting the potential influence of an upcoming right-wing government.
UK Parliament Calls for Just Peace and Support for Ukraine
🎦 03:47-04:18⏩
- British MPs from all parties urge the government to back Ukraine's pursuit of a just peace by providing diplomatic pressure and military aid.
- The call comes as former US President Donald Trump pressures Ukraine to negotiate, while Zelensky aims to reach a peace deal in the coming year.
- Jonathan underscores the importance of ensuring just terms for Ukraine in any potential peace agreement.
Humorous Interlude: Nigel Farage and Trump's Victory
🎦 04:18-09:24⏩
- Jonathan shares a humorous clip from the UK Parliament, where an MP congratulates Trump on his recent election victory, highlighting the mixed reception of Trump within UK politics.
- The clip features Nigel Farage, a Trump supporter and recently elected MP, who is known for his controversial views and frequent trips to the US.
- Jonathan critiques Farage's lack of genuine interest in his constituency work, contrasting it with his eagerness to appear at Trump rallies and conferences.
- Jonathan uses this interlude to emphasize the global reach of Russian influence, citing examples like election interference and the presence of Russian spy ships near the UK.
- He expresses frustration with the potential appointment of Tulsi Gabbard, who he views as a Putin and Assad shill, as US National Intelligence Director.
Political Upheaval in Abkhazia (Georgia)
🎦 09:24-13:43⏩
- Jonathan discusses the escalating political situation in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia under Russian control, citing reports from Anton Gerashchenko.
- The current president, Aslan Bzhania, faces increasing pressure from the opposition, who demand his resignation.
- The situation is fluid, with reports of Bzhania fleeing the capital and the opposition occupying government buildings.
- Jonathan clarifies that both the opposition and the pro-Russian government in Abkhazia are pro-Russia, with the dispute arising from a new agreement with Russia that is seen as compromising Abkhazia's autonomy.
- He suggests that while the events in Abkhazia may not directly favor Georgia or Ukraine, they serve as a distraction for Russia.
Analysis of Russia's Collapse and the Role of China
🎦 13:43-20:31⏩
- Jonathan reads a translated piece by Ukrainian expert Anna Odesitka, which argues that Russia is on the brink of collapse due to Putin's miscalculations and reliance on foreign aid, particularly from China.
- Odesitka compares Putin's ambition to restore Russian glory to Hitler's dream of restoring German glory after World War I, emphasizing the centrality of Ukraine to Putin's vision.
- The piece highlights Putin's increasing dependence on China, arguing that while China benefits from a weakened Russia, it would ultimately choose the West over Russia if forced.
- Odesitka suggests that Putin's desperation for victory in Ukraine has blinded him to the long-term consequences of his actions, including the loss of Siberian resources to China.
- Jonathan agrees with Odesitka's assessment, emphasizing that time might be on Ukraine's side as Russia's internal problems worsen.
Concerns about Trump's Potential Impact on Ukraine
🎦 20:31-21:31⏩
- Jonathan discusses Francois Hollande's belief that Trump is preparing for Ukraine's capitulation, despite some Republicans' hopes that a Trump presidency could benefit Ukraine.
- Jonathan argues that any potential benefit to Ukraine under a Trump administration would be unintentional and likely the result of Putin's miscalculations.
- He emphasizes that Trump has never explicitly blamed Putin or Russia for the war and has consistently pushed for negotiations that would favor Russia.
Biden Meets Xi, Expresses Concerns over China's Support for Russia
🎦 21:31-24:08⏩
- US President Biden meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing concerns about China's support for Russia's military industrial complex and the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia.
- Jonathan acknowledges the significance of Biden's concerns but notes that his status as a lame duck president limits his leverage with Xi Jinping.
- He criticizes China's role in aiding Russia, including the alleged operation of Chinese drone factories supplying drones exclusively for Russia.
Potential US Sanctions on Gazprombank and Trump's Likely Reversal
🎦 24:08-25:41⏩
- The Biden administration is considering sanctioning Gazprombank, Russia's third-largest bank, which plays a vital role in gas settlements between Russia and Europe.
- Jonathan expresses hope that the Biden administration will implement strong sanctions during its remaining time in office.
- However, he worries that Trump will reverse these sanctions upon taking office, as he did with Obama's policies in 2016.
- Jonathan emphasizes the effectiveness of sanctions in hurting Russia's economy and his concern that lifting them would be disastrous for Ukraine.
US to Help Ukraine Transition from Coal to Nuclear Energy
🎦 25:41-26:48⏩
- The US announces its partnership with Ukraine to transition the country's coal-fired power plants to small modular nuclear reactors, aiming to decarbonize its steel industry.
- The announcement was made at the COP29 climate change conference in Baku, Azerbaijan.
- Jonathan views this as good news, as it could both modernize Ukraine's energy infrastructure and reduce its vulnerability to Russian missile strikes.
Dmytro Kuleba's Analysis of the War and the Role of the Three Leaders
🎦 26:48-29:40⏩
- Jonathan discusses an article by Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's former Minister of Foreign Affairs, in The Economist.
- Jonathan agrees with Kuleba's assessment that while the Biden administration's stance on Ukraine is morally correct, their fear of escalation led to a protracted war due to their drip-feeding of aid.
- He argues that a Trump administration would be a worse option for Ukraine, despite the possibility that unforeseen circumstances could force Trump to support Ukraine against his initial intentions.
- Jonathan believes that Trump, Putin, and Zelensky are all strong leaders who are unlikely to step down or capitulate easily, potentially leading to an intensification of the war.
Elon Musk's Mocking of Zelensky and Jonathan's Outrage
🎦 29:40-36:05⏩
- Jonathan expresses his outrage at Elon Musk's mocking of Zelensky's statement that the US cannot force Ukraine to negotiate.
- He criticizes Musk for ridiculing Zelensky, who has courageously fought for his country's existence, while remaining silent on Putin's war crimes.
- Jonathan condemns those who support Musk's views, arguing that they are morally compromised for siding with someone who belittles the victim of a genocidal invasion.
- He condemns the double standards that allow individuals like Musk and Trump to engage in behavior that would be deemed unacceptable in ordinary people.
Twitter's Bias and Musk's Influence on Elections
🎦 36:05-38:37⏩
- Jonathan revisits the topic of Twitter's bias, arguing that the platform has been hard-coded to favor the Republican Party, particularly after a coding change on July 13th that amplified pro-Trump accounts, including Musk's own.
- He criticizes Musk's hypocrisy, as he had previously called for Twitter to be politically neutral but then implemented changes to benefit his preferred party.
- Jonathan expresses concern that Musk's influence could extend beyond the US, citing potential threats to interfere with elections in Brazil and Canada.
- He views Musk as a "guru of disinformation" who is distorting reality and undermining the integrity of democratic elections.
Trump's Ridicule of Musk and Their Unstable Relationship
🎦 38:37-40:54⏩
- Jonathan discusses an incident where Trump publicly ridiculed Musk during a meeting with Republican lawmakers, despite Musk's close relationship with Trump and frequent visits to Mar-a-Lago.
- He cites reports that Musk has spent considerable time with Trump, including golfing, dining, and even being present during phone calls with world leaders.
- Jonathan analyzes the power dynamic between Trump and Musk, suggesting that while Musk may currently benefit from his access to Trump, their relationship is likely to sour as Trump's opinions are easily swayed by whoever he last interacted with.
- He highlights the high turnover in Trump's previous administration as evidence of his tendency to discard allies once they are no longer useful.
Trump's Inner Circle and Their Influence on His Ukraine Policy
🎦 40:54-42:46⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern about the pro-Russian sentiment within Trump's inner circle, including his sons, RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, and Elon Musk, arguing that they are shaping Trump's views on Ukraine.
- He notes that while Mike Johnson, a potential pick for Attorney General, may hold a more balanced view of Ukraine, he is likely to follow Trump's lead and align with the dominant pro-Russian stance within the administration.
- Jonathan concludes that it is unlikely that Trump will adopt a pro-Ukraine stance unless he surrounds himself with advisors who hold such views.
Potential Purging of US Military Officers and Its Impact on National Security
🎦 42:46-45:36⏩
- Jonathan raises concerns about reports that Trump's team is compiling a list of US military officers for potential courts-martial, allegedly based on their involvement in the Afghanistan withdrawal.
- He connects this potential purge to the broader geopolitical context of the Ukraine war, arguing that a dysfunctional and ideologically driven Department of Defense (DOD) will be unable to effectively support US national security interests, including aiding Ukraine.
- Jonathan criticizes the use of the Afghanistan withdrawal as a pretext for purging military officers who are deemed ideologically unsuitable by Trump and his allies, such as Pete Hegseth, a Christian nationalist.
- He expresses deep concern about the US's trajectory under a Trump administration, fearing that the focus on domestic purges and political chaos will distract from vital national security issues like Ukraine, allowing adversaries like China and Russia to exploit the situation.
Trump's Potential Erosion of Checks and Balances and the Threat to Democracy
🎦 45:36-49:55⏩
- Jonathan shares an analysis from Bill Kristol and J.B. Last, both former Republicans concerned about the direction of the US under Trump.
- The analysis suggests that Trump is systematically dismantling checks and balances, aiming to exert unchecked executive control.
- Jonathan cites Trump's demand for Republican senators to agree to recess appointments and his nomination of unfit candidates as examples of his efforts to break the Senate and eliminate any potential opposition.
- He argues that Trump is likely to force a showdown with the Supreme Court, challenging their authority and aiming to create a constitutional crisis that would further erode democratic institutions.
- Jonathan compares Trump's strategy to Elon Musk's successful defiance of the SEC, where Musk repeatedly violated regulations and demonstrated the agency's inability to enforce its authority.
- He expresses concern that the Supreme Court, led by John Roberts, will be reluctant to rule against Trump for fear of undermining the court's legitimacy and triggering a constitutional crisis.
- Jonathan concludes that these developments paint a worrying picture for the future of US democracy and its ability to support Ukraine effectively.
Double Standards in Media and Politics
🎦 49:55-54:03⏩
- Jonathan expresses frustration with the double standards in media and politics, citing examples of how the right-wing media condemned Obama's efforts to promote healthy eating but now embraces similar ideas from RFK Jr., a Trump ally.
- He criticizes Sean Hannity for his hypocritical shift in stance on food regulation, highlighting how political allegiances often override consistent principles.
- Jonathan stresses the importance of critical thinking and encourages viewers to evaluate ideas independently rather than blindly accepting them based on the source.
- He argues that inconsistencies in criticizing figures like Tulsi Gabbard, depending on their party affiliation, demonstrate the lack of genuine commitment to principles and the prevalence of political opportunism.
Wrap up
🎦 54:03-54:24⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video by reiterating his concerns about the US's potential slide towards authoritarianism under Trump and the implications for Ukraine's future.
- He urges viewers to remain vigilant and critical of the actions and appointments of the incoming administration.
