Ukraine War Update NEWS: Mil Aid News & Geopolitics
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"It's the military that wins battles, but it's the economics and that sustainability that tends to win wars."
Military aid news
- Training of Ukrainian pilots to master American F-16 fighters has started in the USA. However, the expected US government shutdown would affect this training program.
- Germany has approved Rheinmetall's plans to set up a joint venture in Kyiv with the Ukrainian defence industry for maintenance, assembly, production and development of military vehicles. Jonathan analyses the best locations in Ukraine for such a facility, considering factors like proximity to the Polish border for importing equipment, distance from the front lines, and air defence coverage. He concludes that Kyiv is probably the safest and most sensible place.
- Ukraine is sending over 1,700 drones to the front line units, including both Ukrainian-made and NATO drones. Jonathan is impressed by the sheer variety and capability of drones on display.
Geopolitical news
- The EU has threatened India and Turkey with consequences due to the supply of components to Russia and Iran. There are many loopholes in the sanctions that some nations are exploiting.
- Kazakhstan's President Tokayev stated after meeting with German Chancellor Scholz that Kazakhstan supports anti-Russian sanctions and will follow the sanctions regime.
- House Republicans in the US Congress voted to remove $300 million in Ukraine aid from the defence spending bill, but it was later approved as a separate bill. Admiral Tony Radikin, UK's chief of defence staff, suggested that strong bipartisan support for Ukraine remains among lawmakers and the American public.
Analysis of the counter-offensive
Admiral Tony Radikin reflected on why the Ukrainian counter-offensive had not proceeded at the anticipated pace:
- The wide variety of vehicles operated by the Ukrainian army and lack of training hampers their progress. Having a "citizen's army" rather than all professional soldiers is also a challenge.
- Western politicians should not measure success just by incremental territorial gains. Russia has failed in its overall aim.
- There are many different elements to the war beyond just advancing on the battlefield. Ukraine's various activities (e.g. drone attacks in Russia, targeting the Black Sea fleet) may seem random but are likely all part of a coherent plan working towards the central goal of prevailing in the war.
- While the counter-offensive is tougher and slower than anticipated, there is no set time limit. Ukraine needs to get all the elements aligned and then things will happen more quickly.
Russian gas production falls
For the first time in 2023, Gazprom published figures showing a decrease in gas production in Russia by almost 25%. Jonathan explains that unlike with oil, Russia cannot easily find new gas customers due to the need for costly and time-consuming pipeline infrastructure. Europe turning off Russian gas imports will hit Russia's finances and ability to fund the war.
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Wrap up
Jonathan will post an extra video on his other YouTube channel (ATP A tippling philosopher) today as this channel still has issues with YouTube. He will announce it on the community page. The next frontline update video will likely be on this channel as normal.
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