Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Economic crisis won't stop the war, but it will be increasingly harder for Russia to keep fighting at the current intensity, given that it would require it to increase spending and the available money will shrink."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a slightly delayed update, attributing it to a technical glitch that required him to recompile his notes and links. He expresses hope that the information presented will be comprehensive despite the hiccup.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report Russian Losses
🎦 00:29-01:41⏩
Jonathan analyses the Ukrainian General Staff's report of Russian losses, noting a significant uptick in casualties. He speculates that recent fluctuating figures likely correlate to weather conditions impacting drone deployments. Key figures highlighted include:
- Personnel: 1,610 (a substantial increase)
- Tanks: 6 (below average but not insignificant)
- Troop Carriers: 27 (above average)
- Artillery Systems: 22 (slightly above average)
Jonathan emphasizes the significance of these losses for both sides, particularly given the reliance on drones for various operations.
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Andrew Perpetua's Visual Confirmation of Losses
🎦 01:41-02:12⏩
Jonathan transitions to losses visually confirmed by Andrew Perpetua's analysis of battlefield footage. He observes a consistent ratio of approximately 1.5 Russian losses for every Ukrainian loss, indicating a slight advantage for Ukraine despite not being the most favourable outcome.
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Analysis of Ukrainian Equipment Losses
🎦 02:12-03:36⏩
Jonathan reviews Ukrainian equipment losses, noting:
- Artillery: A few pieces.
- Tanks: 7-8 total, including three Leopards (1 x 2A4, 2 x 1A5s).
- Drones: A mix, including two FPVs and one Lancet.
The presence of Leopards on the loss list suggests their increased deployment in combat, potentially reflecting a shift in Ukrainian strategy. Jonathan speculates that Ukraine might have been reserving these advanced tanks, relying on familiar equipment while anticipating a large-scale offensive that hasn't materialized as predicted. He recounts the earlier losses of Leopards during offensives in the south, which might have prompted their subsequent limited use. The recent uptick in Leopard sightings in areas like Avdiivka and Kursk Oblast, including potential Challenger and Abrams deployments, further suggests their growing role in the conflict.
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Analysis of Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 03:36-05:09⏩
Jonathan examines Russian equipment losses:
- Air Defence: One Buk-M2 system destroyed (positive news for Ukraine).
- Telehandler: Purpose unclear, potentially linked to air defence operations.
- Uragan (BM-27 MLRS): Destroyed.
- Anti-Tank Guns: Two.
- Tanks: Fewer than Ukrainian losses, with only six reported, including a tracked guard in shed. Notably, two-thirds were destroyed or abandoned.
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles: Roughly a dozen, almost all abandoned and intact, representing irretrievable losses for Russia.
- Drones: Primarily nighttime drones like Vampires and dive bombers. The reappearance of dive bombers, after a period of absence, marks a notable development.
- Miscellaneous: APCs, AFVs, TLBs, Tiger Wrens, trucks, civilian vehicles, ATVs, four-wheelers, quads, and possibly a golf buggy (though Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the latter).
Bizarre Russian Mine Clearing Footage
🎦 05:09-09:48⏩
Jonathan shares footage depicting Russian mine-clearing efforts that take a darkly comical turn. He describes a sapper demining a road who tries to warn an approaching buggy full of Russian soldiers about the danger. Instead of heeding his warning, the buggy runs him down and subsequently detonates a mine. This absurdity repeats itself when the sapper, after narrowly avoiding the first explosion, attempts to warn another approaching vehicle and suffers the same fate. Jonathan expresses confusion over the video's purpose, questioning why Russia would release footage portraying its forces as incompetent.
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Fire in Russian Warehouse
🎦 09:48-10:18⏩
Continuing the theme of Russian mishaps, Jonathan reports a fire engulfing a 6,000-square-meter warehouse in Bernal, attributed to flammable materials. He highlights a trend of fewer reports of fires in Russia compared to earlier stages of the conflict.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes
🎦 10:18-11:03⏩
Jonathan details a substantial Ukrainian drone attack involving 145 drones targeting Ukraine. Remarkably, Ukrainian forces intercepted 142 drones, with 71 shot down and 71 neutralized by electronic warfare. Only two drones are believed to have reached their targets, highlighting Ukraine's impressive interception capabilities. Jonathan also considers the resource-intensive nature of these defensive operations, pondering the financial and psychological toll of constant aerial threats and nightly air raid sirens.
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Russian Missile Strikes on Kharkiv
🎦 11:03-11:45⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to a devastating Russian missile strike on Kharkiv, reporting a rising casualty count with at least 15 injured and potentially more. The attack, targeting the Kyivsky district, resulted in a major fire engulfing vehicles and a two-storey building. This incident highlights a concerning trend of Russia deliberately striking during busy weekday mornings, maximizing civilian casualties.
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Russian Missile Strikes on Odesa
🎦 11:45-12:18⏩
Jonathan reports on explosions in Odesa following a missile alert, resulting in a visible plume of smoke. While casualty figures remain unknown, he criticizes Russia's targeting of civilian infrastructure, evident from the damage inflicted.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Targets
🎦 12:18-13:08⏩
Ukraine retaliated with successful strikes on Russian targets, targeting fuel depots in Kaluga, Bryansk, and Kursk. Jonathan emphasizes Ukraine's strategy of focusing on targets with strategic military significance.
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Ukrainian Strike on Kalino Military Airfield
🎦 13:08-14:24⏩
Jonathan dissects a Ukrainian strike on Kalino military airfield, located approximately 100 kilometers from the front line, reportedly involving seven ATAKAMS missiles and 12 drones. While at least one missile seemingly hit the airfield, the attack's effectiveness remains uncertain. He cites conflicting reports, with some sources claiming the airfield is no longer actively used by Russian aviation and that planes have been relocated due to its vulnerability to Ukrainian attacks. He cites Fighter Bomber, a generally reliable Russian source, who suggests the target remains unclear due to the absence of stationed aircraft and the ease of repairing runway damage. Jonathan compares airfield repairs to road repairs, highlighting the Ukrainian's efficiency in quickly restoring infrastructure after attacks. He questions the strategic value of striking airfields, arguing that targeting critical infrastructure like air traffic control, fuel, weaponry, and the aircraft themselves yields a higher payoff.
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Ukrainian Strike on Kaluga
🎦 14:24-16:09⏩
Jonathan analyses another significant Ukrainian strike, this time in Russia's Kaluga region, involving drones targeting an industrial facility. Reports indicate a fire erupting at the facility, believed to house an oil refinery and the Kaluga Instrument Making Plant Typhoon, which produces complex radio-electronic equipment for military and civilian applications. Specifically, the Typhoon plant supplies radar equipment to the Russian Navy, including components for coastal missile systems. The attack also targeted a Rosneft fuel depot. While the Kaluga regional governor confirmed the drone attack, claiming eight were shot down, the Ukrainians appear to have successfully struck their intended targets.
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S-400 Triumph Air Defence System Destruction
🎦 16:09-17:23⏩
Jonathan delves into reports of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian S-400 Triumph air defence system, potentially a separate incident from the earlier-mentioned radar strike. The attack, reportedly supported by US intelligence, involved Ukrainian armed forces using drones to locate the S-400 position in the Kursk region. Subsequently, US-made ATAK-NZ missiles were deployed, destroying the SAM system, its radar, and crew, resulting in casualties. Jonathan acknowledges uncertainties surrounding the translation and whether this incident is distinct from the previous radar attack or involves the same battery. He emphasizes the significance of targeting these S-400s, believing they are being utilized for ground attacks in Sumy and potentially involved in the Kharkiv attacks from Belgorod.
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DHL Cargo Plane Crash in Vilnius
🎦 17:23-19:09⏩
Jonathan discusses a DHL cargo plane crash in Vilnius, Lithuania, raising suspicions of potential Russian involvement. The plane, en route from Leipzig, crashed into a residential building, killing one crew member and injuring three others. He links this incident to previous accusations of Russia planting explosive packages on DHL planes originating from Leipzig, noting that this incident, if proven to be a Russian attack, would constitute an act of war and terrorism. However, he acknowledges the difficulty of definitively attributing blame and the likelihood of plausible deniability shielding Russia from repercussions.
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Russian-Made SSJ-100 Plane Fire in Antalya
🎦 19:09-19:49⏩
Continuing the discussion on aviation incidents, Jonathan reports on a Russian-made SSJ-100 passenger plane catching fire while landing in Antalya, Turkey. The aircraft, belonging to Azimuth Airlines and arriving from Sochi, had a history of technical issues, including four aborted takeoffs, engine failure mid-flight, landing gear problems, and numerous engine alerts. Jonathan suggests this incident highlights the detrimental impact of sanctions on Russia's aviation industry and its struggle to maintain its fleet.
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Russian Economy & Impact of Sanctions
🎦 19:49-26:50⏩
Jonathan delves into the Russian economy's performance, citing a 15.2% year-on-year decline in steel production for October as a worrying sign of broader economic decline. He argues that sanctions are significantly hindering Russia's ability to sustain its war effort, despite potential increased demand for steel in military production. This decline likely reflects challenges across various industries, including car manufacturing and construction. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining these sanctions as a crucial lever for pressuring Russia, potentially forcing a political resolution to the conflict. Jonathan acknowledges the absence of an imminent economic collapse but believes Russia's capacity to maintain its current level of military engagement will dwindle over time due to shrinking resources. He cites experts like Branislav Slantchev and Alexander Jokic, who argue that while the Russian economy might not experience a complete collapse, it faces structural challenges that won't improve without ending the war economy and lifting sanctions. Jonathan underscores that the crisis will primarily impact the Russian people through reduced social services, as the regime prioritizes military spending over its citizens' well-being. He posits that this economic strain, coupled with declining living standards, could potentially fuel dissent and protests, potentially leading to political change. However, he tempers this optimism by acknowledging the unpredictable nature of black swan events and the Russian population's history of political apathy. Jonathan concludes that while the economic crisis alone might not immediately stop the war or trigger a widespread uprising, it remains a critical factor in shaping Russia's future political landscape and potentially influencing its strategic calculus. He emphasizes that maintaining pressure on the Russian economy is crucial for achieving a favourable outcome for Ukraine.
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Joe Rogan's Ukraine War Narrative & Klitschko's Response
🎦 26:50-36:32⏩
Jonathan revisits Joe Rogan's controversial stance on the Ukraine war, expressing disappointment over Rogan's amplification of what he perceives as Russian propaganda, particularly regarding the potential for US military aid to escalate the conflict into World War III. He criticizes Rogan's lack of research and subject naivety, emphasizing the responsibility that comes with a large platform and the potential to mislead a vast audience. He lauds Vitali Klitschko, the former boxer and current mayor of Kyiv, for directly addressing Rogan's claims in a video message, calling out Rogan's repetition of Russian propaganda and offering a counter-narrative based on his lived experience. Klitschko challenges Rogan's assertions about US weapons, asserting that true American strength lies in supporting nations fighting for freedom. He invites Rogan for an open discussion on his podcast, a proposition that Jonathan fully endorses. Jonathan analyzes the psychology of belief formation, arguing that confronting deeply held beliefs with opposing views can often lead to the backfire effect, where individuals double down on their existing stance despite compelling counter-arguments. He highlights that Klitschko, as a fellow athlete and public figure, occupies a unique position within Rogan's in-group, making him more likely to influence Rogan's perspective than someone perceived as ideologically opposed. Jonathan draws parallels between his frustration with Rogan's views and his own experiences debating individuals entrenched in their positions, highlighting the limitations of relying solely on rational arguments to shift perspectives when dealing with individuals influenced by propaganda and psychological biases.
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Wrap up
🎦 36:32-36:35⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, expressing his admiration for Klitschko's direct approach in challenging Rogan's views on the Ukraine conflict.
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