Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"If Russia were able to get their full navy into the Black Sea, you'd have a completely different situation. Okay, Ukraine won't use longer range rockets."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest update on the Russia-Ukraine war, starting with the Ukrainian reports of Russian losses from the previous day. The figures seem higher than average, with 870 Russian personnel killed and 11 tanks lost. Jonathan notes the importance of verifying claims, citing an example of misattributed footage.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Military and Humanitarian Aid
- A Washington-based company will build 8 patrol boats for Ukraine, though delivery may be challenging due to the closure of the Bosphorus Straits to military vessels under the Montreux Convention. Jonathan emphasises the significance of Turkey upholding this convention.
- Ukraine has stated it will not use the long-range GLSDB rockets pledged by the US to strike Russian territory, only targeting Russian forces in occupied Ukrainian territory.
- Training of Ukrainian troops on Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks is underway in various Western countries. The first Canadian Leopard 2 tank for Ukraine has arrived in Poland.
Geopolitics and Domestic Affairs
- Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov is reportedly being replaced by Kirill Budanov following a corruption scandal, though Reznikov's direct involvement is unclear. Jonathan sees this as a necessary move by Zelensky to demonstrate his commitment to fighting corruption.
- The British Ministry of Internal Affairs is preparing to recognise the PMC Wagner group as a terrorist organisation, following the US. This could hinder their financial operations in Africa and the Middle East.
- UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly stated that arming Ukraine is the fastest path to peace, a sentiment echoed by Jonathan, who believes a quick, decisive Ukrainian victory is needed to minimise loss of life.
Frontline Updates and Analysis
Jonathan shares insights from Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist who criticises Russia's military performance and readiness. Girkin highlights issues with communication, aviation, and supply, suggesting Russia is not prepared for a major offensive. Jonathan analyses recent Russian offensives in Kreminna and Vuhledar, questioning their effectiveness and speculating that they may represent the extent of Russia's current offensive capabilities. He predicts Russia may make some gains but at a high cost, setting the stage for a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive bolstered by Western equipment and training.
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Wrap up
Jonathan expresses concern over Elon Musk's amplification of Russian propaganda on Twitter, potentially misleading his followers. He also acknowledges the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria, which may shift Turkey's attention away from the war in Ukraine. Jonathan apologises for a couple of rants and thanks his audience for their support.
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