Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Baba Yaga Nightmares
Table of Contents 📖
"Trump is fulfilling all of Putin's dreams."
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics for the Ukraine War News Update, part one for the 17th of March 2025.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses: Significant Tank Losses and High Personnel Losses
🎦 00:09-01:44⏩
- Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses are presented.
- Personnel losses are 1,210, down from 1,400 the previous day, but still significant.
- Tank losses are notably high at 19, double the daily average.
- Jonathan speculates that tanks may be used suboptimally, possibly as glorified APCs due to the lack of supporting AFVs in attacks.
- Evidence from Andrew Perpetua's loss list supports this, with tanks listed as "track garden sheds," indicating inappropriate usage.
- Other Russian losses include:
- 11 troop carrying airframes
- 37 artillery systems (almost double the average, though less than the previous day's high of 78)
- 1 MLRS
- 101 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 1 piece of special equipment.
Andrew Perpetua Loss List: Ukrainian vs Russian Losses
🎦 01:44-02:30⏩
- Andrew Perpetua's loss list shows a decrease in Russian deaths recorded.
- Jonathan acknowledges the macabre nature of tracking deaths but highlights it as an interesting statistic, reminding viewers that these numbers represent human beings.
- He expresses his view that Russian soldiers are victims of national brainwashing and a dictatorial society under Putin, even though Ukrainians are the ultimate victims.
Andrew Perpetua Loss List: Ukrainian Combat Assets Losses Higher Than Russian
🎦 02:30-03:18⏩
- Andrew Perpetua's loss list indicates that Ukrainians have lost more combat assets than Russians, although overall numbers are roughly equal.
- Russian losses are inflated by ATVs, golf buggies, quads and civilian vehicles, bringing the total to approximately one-to-one with Ukrainian losses.
Andrew Perpetua Loss List: Ukrainian Equipment Losses - Artillery, Tanks, IFVs, APCs, MRAPs, Humvee
🎦 03:18-04:30⏩
- Ukrainian losses include artillery pieces, a mix of old Soviet and very old Soviet kit.
- Tank losses include a "track guard and shed" and a T-80, both damaged.
- Losses of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) are minimal.
- A significant number of APCs (almost 10) are listed, including American-provided M113s, Strikers, and BTRs, mostly irretrievably lost.
- MRAP losses are also noted, all of which are Western-provided or indigenously made, with no old Soviet kits in this category.
- A captured Humvee is listed, which Jonathan suggests is not surprising given events in Kursk.
Andrew Perpetua Loss List: Ukrainian Civilian Vehicle Losses Mostly Damaged
🎦 04:30-04:53⏩
- Ukrainian civilian vehicle losses are mainly damaged rather than destroyed, which is considered unusual and noteworthy.
- Jonathan points out the prevalence of grey (damaged) entries versus brown (destroyed) in the Ukrainian list.
Andrew Perpetua Loss List: Fewer Russian Combat Assets Lost
🎦 04:53-06:47⏩
- Russian losses show fewer combat assets lost compared to Ukrainians, although more are destroyed than damaged.
- Jonathan questions if this is due to a lack of available vehicles for the Russians.
- He notes consistently high numbers of vehicle and fuel tank losses in Ukrainian General Staff figures, but not always in AFVs and tanks, except for today's high tank losses.
- Andrew Perpetua's list, visually confirmed on social media, may not perfectly align with General Staff figures due to the nature of online information and time delays.
- Of the three Russian tanks listed by Perpetua, one is a "track garden shed," reinforcing the suboptimal tank usage theory.
- BMP losses (IFVs) include seven vehicles, with six destroyed or abandoned.
- ATV losses are significant, along with buggies, golf buggies, and quads, mostly destroyed or abandoned.
- Civilian vehicle losses for Russia are about half destroyed.
- Motorcycles are separated out at the bottom of the Russian loss list, showing daily losses in this category.
War Translated Report: Russian Volunteer Account of Ukrainian Vampire Drone Bombers
🎦 06:47-07:27⏩
- Jonathan transitions to a report from War Translated, detailing a Russian volunteer's description of Ukraine's heavy "vampire" drone bombers.
- The Russian volunteer expresses significant concern about these drones, stating it's a topic he could discuss for hours due to the problems they cause.
- He mentions "Project Malleus Maleficarum," created to combat these large "agrodrones."
War Translated Report: Ukrainian Agro Drones (Baba Yaga, Vampire) - Development and Tactics
🎦 07:27-08:42⏩
- "Agrodrones" are agricultural drones used for military purposes, highlighting how Chinese businesses are sending drones to Russia under the guise of agricultural use to circumvent sanctions.
- Ukrainian forces have been developing the use of large industrial drones, such as Baba Yaga and Vampire, systematically and for a long time.
- Their priority is nighttime strikes on infrastructure and equipment but are also used during the day depending on the front line situation.
- Tactics and deployment are constantly being refined, with a systematic approach being key.
War Translated Report: Ukrainian Drone Reconnaissance and Starlink Communication
🎦 08:42-10:21⏩
- Ukrainian tactics involve daytime reconnaissance with "wings" (fixed-wing drones) to mark artillery positions and movement routes.
- This is followed by nighttime reconnaissance using wings or Mavic 3T drones (night optics drones funded by Dzyga's Paw).
- Heavy drones are then dispatched for strikes.
- Starlink is used for drone communication.
- Baba Yaga drones often use pre-programmed flight paths with manual control at key moments.
- Advanced antennas are used to bypass jamming, although not all "vampire" drones have them.
- Backup communication methods include Starlink, control video radio channels, and Lugacam operator SIM cards.
- The Russian volunteer emphasizes Ukraine's significant technological lead in using large industrial drones and their continuous technical and tactical improvements.
War Translated Report: Priority Targets and Counter Measures Against Ukrainian Drones
🎦 10:21-11:38⏩
- Baba Yaga drones prioritize high-value targets: command posts, tanks, artillery, and ammunition depots, focusing on tank and artillery units.
- Counter-drone measures are needed, particularly equipping unofficial air observation posts (PVN).
- Systematic PVN networks are more effective than sporadic efforts, requiring communication and coordination from target detection to destruction.
War Translated Report: Equipment and Organisational Challenges for Russian Counter-Drone Teams
🎦 11:38-12:31⏩
- Equipping counter-drone networks is challenging, even with basic issues like obtaining non-standard issue machine guns and thermal/night sights.
- Organisation and training of PVN teams are the main problems, more so than equipment.
- Air defence and electronic warfare units also face similar challenges in fighting agro-drones.
- A systematic analysis of coverage is needed, which Project Malleus Maleficarum is working on, leveraging 1.5 years of gathered information.
Russian Rubicon Drone Teams in Kursk and Implications for Ukraine
🎦 12:31-13:37⏩
- Russian forces in Kursk have used their Rubicon drone team effectively.
- There are analyses discussing how Russia will apply lessons learned in Kursk to other areas, potentially moving Rubicon units to other fronts.
- Rubicon units use fibre optic drones for reconnaissance followed by FPV drone strikes.
- Claims suggest their impact in Kursk was a "crushing blow" to Ukrainian forces.
- Concerns are raised about the potential for similar devastating effects if these tactics are replicated elsewhere on the front line, posing serious problems for Ukraine.
Magyar Footage: Destruction of Russian BM-21 Grad MLRS by Drone
🎦 13:37-15:20⏩
- Magyar footage shows the destruction of a Russian 1C2 Mil multiple launch rocket system, BM-21 Grad, hidden in a hangar in the Prokost direction.
- Drones can now locate targets inside hangars and strike precisely.
- The video shows Ukrainian soldiers excitedly observing the drone strike on the Grad system.
- Precision targeting is highlighted as a key advantage of drone warfare, allowing strikes on vulnerable spots of stationary equipment in relatively safe conditions.
High Drone Usage: 10:1 Ukrainian Drone Advantage and Drone-Per-Person Use
🎦 15:20-16:34⏩
- Russian sources claim Ukraine has a 10:1 drone advantage in the Prokost direction.
- Drones are used extensively, even against individual people.
- While Baba Yaga drones target high-value equipment due to their payload and cost, FPV drones are commonplace and used against individual personnel.
- Jonathan questions how many of the daily Russian casualties are due to individual drone strikes, given the massive drone usage on the front lines.
Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian UTEZ-TM Radar System
🎦 16:34-17:19⏩
- A special type of Ukrainian drone is used to destroy a Russian UTEZ-TM radar system.
- This radar system monitors Ukrainian aircraft, missiles, and drones within a 360km radius in real time.
- Footage shows a fixed-wing drone striking and destroying this radar system.
Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade Strike on Russian Workshop and HIMARS Usage
🎦 17:19-18:31⏩
- The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade used a FlyEye 3.0 drone to locate a Russian workshop where marines from the 155th Brigade were welding extra armour onto vehicles.
- The workshop was then struck with multiple weapons, including cluster munitions and HIMARS.
- HIMARS usage is noted as positive, indicating continued missile and cluster munition supplies from the US.
ChrisO_wiki Thread: Russian Starlink Usage and Implications
🎦 18:31-20:01⏩
- ChrisO_wiki discusses Russia's widespread use of Starlink terminals, acquired and activated in third countries.
- Geo-blocking is ineffective due to the proximity of front lines, which would also deactivate Ukrainian Starlinks.
- Elon Musk stated he wouldn't deactivate Russian Starlinks, despite disagreeing with Ukrainian approaches.
- Jonathan suggests Musk's decision is primarily financial, as deactivating Starlink would be financially disastrous for him.
- Ukraine benefits from this financial imperative as it safeguards Starlink access for them.
Elon Musk, Tesla and Starlink's Financial Importance for Ukraine
🎦 20:01-21:35⏩
- Starlink's financial value to Elon Musk is crucial for Ukraine's continued access.
- Tesla's declining brand value and stock performance are mentioned, noting that key funders have called meetings with Musk.
- A large percentage of Germans are reportedly now unwilling to buy Teslas, suggesting brand damage.
- If Musk damages Tesla's global brand, it could affect his financial stability, making the income from Starlink even more critical.
- This financial dependence ensures Starlink remains operational for Ukraine, beyond just subscriptions from frontline users.
- Cutting off Russian Starlink usage could lead to long-term business threats for Musk as competitors emerge and gain market share.
ChrisO_wiki Thread: Consequences of Starlink Disruption for Russian Forces
🎦 21:35-23:00⏩
- ChrisO_wiki outlines the significant negative impacts on Russian forces if Starlink were disrupted:
- Troop control and speed of target destruction would suffer greatly.
- Command posts would become less effective due to lack of real-time drone imagery.
- Command would need to move closer to the front lines.
- Operational data for artillery fire adjustment would be lost.
- Infantry would need to operate without drone control.
- Radio fire adjustment and closer proximity to drone pilots/observation posts would be necessary.
- Telegram and messengers would become less effective for covert communication.
- Target coordinate transmission and interaction speeds would decrease.
- Wiretapping and communication point exposure risks would increase.
- False information would likely increase due to decreased control.
- Ultimately, these disruptions would lead to increased losses, including among senior officers.
Jonathan's Frustration with Elon Musk and Starlink Geoblocking
🎦 23:00-24:34⏩
- Jonathan expresses frustration that Elon Musk, if morally inclined and understanding geopolitics, could easily geoblock Russian Starlink usage.
- Despite claims that geoblocking is impossible, Jonathan argues it is feasible with dedicated effort to geolocate Russian Starlink terminals and map them using intelligence data.
- He believes a dedicated department could effectively identify and disable Russian Starlink usage.
- Jonathan concludes that Musk's inaction stems from financial interest in Russian subscriptions and a lack of desire to hinder Russian operations, possibly influenced by the US Department of Defence's (DoD) oversight and Starlink's military arm, Star Shield.
- He laments that this situation seriously damages the ability to harm Russia's frontline operations.
Sabotage in Novosibirsk, Russia: Communications Tower Burned Down
🎦 24:34-25:05⏩
- Good news of sabotage from Novosibirsk, Russia, reported by the Legion's resistance (likely the Free Legion of Russia).
- Another communications tower has been burned down by partisans.
- This action will cause communication problems in the nearby Oman region of Novosibirsk and hinder police operations for the Putin regime.
Strikes Update: Massive Shahid Drone Attack on Ukraine
🎦 25:05-25:35⏩
- Limited strike news from both Ukraine and Russia.
- A massive attack with 174 Shahid drones was launched overnight by Russia.
- Ukrainian forces neutralised 90 drones by conventional means and 70 by electronic warfare.
- 14 drones got through, a significant number causing ongoing issues.
Power Issues in Ukraine Following Drone Attacks, Odessa Air Defence Weakness
🎦 25:35-27:23⏩
- Power issues are reported in Ukraine due to overnight drone attacks.
- Eight regions of Ukraine suffered varying degrees of damage: Kyiv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava.
- In Poltava, over a thousand households in Kremenchuk lost power after infrastructure was hit.
- Ukrainian businesses were already informed of power outages due to high consumption exceeding demand, exacerbated by falling temperatures.
- Kyiv temperatures are expected to remain low until the second half of the week.
- Public power supplies remain connected, and many businesses in Kyiv and Lviv are equipped with generators.
- Explosions in Odesa continue, indicating struggles with air defence.
- There are reports of Ukraine running out of ASK-30 missiles for SAMP/T (Santee) air defence systems (European equivalent to Patriot).
- Two SAMP/T systems have been provided by France and Italy.
- There is hope that missile supplies for these systems will be replenished.
- Odesa is identified as a current weak point in Ukrainian air defence.
Ukrainian Drone Attack on Fuel Facility in Astrakhan Oblast, Russia
🎦 27:23-27:31⏩
- Ukrainian drones attacked a fuel facility in Russia's Astrakhan Oblast overnight.
- This is the only confirmed strike information available at the moment.
Explosions and Fire in Simferopol, Crimea
🎦 27:31-28:09⏩
- Explosions and fire were reported in the Marino district of Simferopol, Crimea, yesterday.
- Witnesses reported loud blasts and smoke near the university.
- Emergency services are on site.
- Simferopol is described as the capital of Crimea, inland from the port of Sevastopol.
Visual of Burning Oil Tank in Tuapse and Questions on Strike Strategy
🎦 28:09-29:29⏩
- Visuals show a single oil tank in Tuapse burning for three days after a strike.
- Jonathan expresses frustration that only a single tank was hit, questioning why multiple tanks in the same facility aren't targeted in follow-up strikes, especially at already damaged locations.
- He speculates on whether smoke and flames from existing fires might interfere with missile accuracy or air defence effectiveness.
- He suggests repeated strikes on other oil tanks in the same area, avoiding double-tapping emergency responders but aiming to maximise damage to infrastructure.
- He ponders the broader impact of such strikes on the entire infrastructure, including underground pipes, suggesting that even single tank hits might have significant operational consequences for the plant beyond just one tank's loss.
Mapping Updates: Small Russian Advances Near Verkhno-Kamyanske
🎦 29:29-30:09⏩
- Mapping updates from Andrew Perpetua show small Russian advances near Verkhno-Kamyanske, on the Siversk front line.
- This indicates Russian efforts to advance towards Siversk itself.
- The area is described as worrying for Ukrainians, especially given the proximity to the chalk pit of Bila Hryvka.
Voice of America (VOA) Staff Purge and Potential Shift in Direction
🎦 30:09-31:44⏩
- Voice of America (VOA) has reportedly shut down or significantly restructured, with all staff being removed.
- Jonathan speculates this is a purge to replace staff with individuals ideologically aligned with "Project 2025" and a shift away from seeing Russia and Putin as enemies.
- VOA's mission may be realigned from promoting pro-democracy and pro-freedom values to representing US policies, potentially focusing on culture war issues.
- This is described as a potentially "insidious culture wars creep" rather than a focus on democracy and freedom.
Czech Republic Proposes EU Takeover of Radio Free Europe
🎦 31:44-32:59⏩
- Czech Republic's Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský proposes the EU should take over Radio Free Europe following funding withdrawal by Donald Trump's administration.
- Jonathan strongly supports this idea as a sound investment, given the existing infrastructure and personnel.
- He emphasizes the importance of countering disinformation, especially at this critical time, and criticises the defunding of US global media output as "exactly the wrong time."
Trump Administration Actions Seen as Fulfilling Putin's Dreams
🎦 32:59-34:09⏩
- Jonathan highlights the detrimental timing of defunding US global media efforts amid rising disinformation.
- He references Richard Stengel's view that Trump's actions – distancing from NATO, suggesting Ukraine won't join, ending the FBI's foreign influence task force, defunding Radio Free Europe/VOA and foreign aid – are "fulfilling all of Putin's dreams."
- Jonathan agrees with this assessment, emphasizing that this is "exactly at the wrong time."
EU Needs to Counter Disinformation and Promote Values
🎦 34:09-35:15⏩
- Jonathan argues that the EU needs to actively promote its values and ideology and combat disinformation from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.
- He believes the EU taking over Radio Free Europe would be an excellent step, providing a ready-made institution and workforce for this purpose.
- He reiterates 100% agreement with Jan Lipavský's proposal, seeing it as a low-cost and effective way to counter disinformation.
Lviv Airport Reopening Potential and Travel Difficulties to Ukraine
🎦 35:15-36:41⏩
- There is talk that Lviv airport could reopen in late spring (April/May), contingent on a positive outcome in the war.
- This is described as "super, super, super great" and hugely important for increasing money flow into Ukraine and facilitating travel.
- Jonathan expresses frustration at the difficulty of travelling to Ukraine currently, requiring two days each way via Poland and train.
- Reopening Lviv airport would significantly ease travel, boost tourism and inward investment, which Ukraine desperately needs.
Trump to Speak with Putin and Concerns over Ukraine Partition
🎦 36:41-38:03⏩
- Trump plans to speak with Putin on Tuesday, March 18th, raising concerns about potential negative outcomes for Ukraine.
- Reports suggest Trump intends to discuss "land" and "power plants" with Putin, calling it a "division of certain assets," implying he may negotiate the partition of Ukraine on Ukraine's behalf.
- Edward Hunter Christie confirms Trump's statement, highlighting the belief that Trump can legitimately partition Ukraine's land and assets in negotiations with Russia.
- Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen expresses concern over Russia's silence on Ukraine's ceasefire proposal, which Ukraine agreed to a week prior.
- Rasmussen notes the lack of pressure on Russia and the impending Trump-Putin conversation, fearing a carve-up of Ukraine.
- He highlights the absence of a strong stance against Russia.
US Withdrawal from Ukraine Invasion Responsibility Investigation Group
🎦 38:03-40:31⏩
- The US is withdrawing from the multinational group investigating responsibility for the Ukraine invasion, according to the New York Times.
- This is seen as further evidence of the Trump administration moving away from holding Putin accountable for war crimes in Ukraine.
- Oleksandr Povorodnik expresses outrage, stating this action goes beyond national interest or cost-cutting and actively helps a dictatorship evade accountability for horrific crimes.
- The Justice Department has informed European officials of the US withdrawal from the Eurojust-based group.
Shashank Joshi's Criticism of US Policy and Tulsi Gabbard with Jackson Hinkle
🎦 40:31-41:46⏩
- Shashank Joshi, defence correspondent for The Economist, expresses increasing anger at the current US position.
- Joshi describes US policy as "pre-emptive concession after concession," calling negotiators "inept, malevolent or compromised" and stating the administration "shouldn't be trusted with a potato, let alone European security."
- Jonathan agrees strongly with Joshi's assessment.
- Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard is criticised for associating with Jackson Hinkle, who has tweeted about bombing London.
- This association is seen as deeply concerning, equating Hinkle with pro-Russian figures like Scott Ritter and Douglas MacGregor.
Oliver Carroll: Ukraine's Best Hope May Be US Neglect
🎦 41:46-42:35⏩
- Oliver Carroll suggests it's unclear if it's better for Ukraine to be abused and exploited by Trump for his "reality show" or for Trump to completely forget about Ukraine.
- Jonathan agrees, stating his opinion that Ukraine's best hope is for things to become so chaotic in the US that Trump simply forgets about Ukraine.
- He suggests US actions are currently harming Ukraine more than helping, despite some necessary intelligence sharing and previously promised aid.
- New aid is not forthcoming, and previously allocated aid is diminishing.
Wrap up
🎦 42:35-43:01⏩
- Jonathan concludes by stating he would prefer Trump to forget about Ukraine and focus on other matters like playing golf, as current US engagement is more detrimental.
- He thanks viewers for watching and signs off with "Take care," "Speak soon," and "Toodle pips."