Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News - Lots of News!
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"For as long as KFOR is based in Kosovo, I don't think Serbia will take military action. Serbia is not going to enter a war with NATO. It did it once and it lost. It's not going to do it again."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a Ukraine war update for 14 February 2023, Valentine's Day. He notes there is a lot of news to cover and will try to get through it quickly.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukrainian figures show an uptick in Russian losses from the previous day, with 740 personnel lost (well above average), 3 tanks, 8 APCs, 9 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2-3 aircraft, 4 drones, 5 vehicles, and 1 piece of special equipment
- BBC Russia and Medusa have compiled visual confirmation statistics showing a massive hike in newly mobilised civilian deaths, with 40% of the 1,100 publicly announced deaths occurring since January
- An LDNR command post was hit by HIMARS in the Vuhledar direction, killing a commander
- Another group of mobilised Russian soldiers are complaining about being sent to the front without proper equipment or knowledge of their commanders
Aircraft Losses
- A Wagner-owned Su-24 was shot down, admitted by Russian sources
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported 2 Su-24Ms and 1 Su-25 jet were shot down, for a total of 3 aircraft lost
- This is a significant loss and indicates the Russians are taking more risks with their air force since switching to an offensive posture under Gerasimov
Russian Personnel Losses
- Footage shows around 30 Russian personnel being killed in a single strike, providing evidence to support the high reported losses
- An uptick in footage of Russian howitzers being destroyed is being seen, particularly around the Kherson area, possibly indicating a targeted attempt to take out artillery
British Intelligence Update
- Wagner Group forces have likely made small gains around Bakhmut
- Russian forces are making continuous small-scale offensive efforts in the Kreminna-Svatove sector of Luhansk, possibly aiming to advance west of the Zherebets River
- The current operational picture suggests Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors but have not amassed sufficient offensive combat power to achieve a decisive effect on any one axis
Fires and Explosions in Russia
- A reserve gas pipeline exploded in Yaroslavl, taking out hydrocarbon supply
- The Scientific Research Institute of Precision Instruments in Moscow, which produces radio, electronic and software products for the space sector, caught fire
- A mysterious fire occurred at a Viko company facility in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia; Viko is involved in cargo transportation and warehouse leasing across Russia
- The uptick in unexplained fires in Russia is becoming very interesting
International Developments
- 105 Ukrainian soldiers have arrived in Poland to master Leopard 2 tanks; they were pulled from the front lines in Donbas to train
- The US may transfer modern combat aircraft like F-16s to Ukraine if the conflict drags on, but the current focus is still on air defence and ammunition
- Bangladesh has joined sanctions against Russia, banning 69 Russian ships from its ports, waters and sea routes
- The US, France and Brazil have warned their citizens to leave Russia and Belarus, possibly indicating expectations of a large mobilisation or worsening conditions
Starlink and Competitors
- Starlink competitor Kymeta has blasted Elon Musk's actions in Ukraine as "egregious" and is positioning itself as a better SATCOM option for the US Department of Defense
- This puts pressure on Starlink to either reverse limitations in Ukraine or lose market share to Kymeta, ultimately benefiting Ukraine either way
Geopolitical Tensions
- Dutch F-35s intercepted three Russian military aircraft near Poland and escorted them out
- Former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi blamed the Ukraine war on Zelenskyy, claiming it wouldn't have happened if Ukraine ceased "attacking" the "autonomous republics" of Donbas
- Berlusconi criticised current Italian PM Giorgia Meloni for meeting with Zelenskyy; Meloni's office rebuffed his comments, affirming Italy's unwavering support for Ukraine
- The president of Kosovo warned that Wagner mercenaries are helping Serbian paramilitaries smuggle weapons and uniforms into Kosovo to prepare for a potential hybrid attack to grab territory, drawing parallels to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea
- Many experts doubt Serbia would confront NATO's KFOR (Kosovo Force), as it would mean war with NATO
Wrap up
Jonathan notes there is a lot of information to think about from today's news update. He apologises for the length of the video but emphasises how much is happening every day in this war. He thanks viewers and reminds them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
The video was clear and I did not have any trouble understanding the content or extracting the key points for the summary.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Steps:
Extract key information for each topic discussed in the video
Organize topics into sections with appropriate subheadings
Summarize each topic concisely, including relevant details and opinions
Use British English spelling and grammar
Include an introduction and wrap-up section
Select a key quote that captures the essence of the video
Review summary to ensure all key points are covered
