Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

"Russian tech and trainings are such a shite show that they can't even win a tank versus IFV 1v1 when it gets the first shot in advance"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:46⏩

Jonathan greets viewers, apologising for the slight delay due to his son's football match. Despite having 90% possession and no substitutes, his son's team lost 2-0. He praises his son, Finn, for his performance.

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Russian Losses

🎦 00:46-03:41⏩

Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff's figures for Russian losses, reminding viewers to be cautious about their accuracy.

• Personnel: 700 (high, but not unprecedented).
• Tanks: 5
• APVs: 15 (significant).
• Artillery Systems: 18 (slight increase).

Jonathan then discusses the impact of the cold weather on both sides, noting:

• Troops are reluctant to move due to the freezing temperatures.
• Drones are affected by ice and weather conditions, hindering their use for reconnaissance, manoeuvre support, and artillery spotting.
• Snowdrifts pose a challenge for movement.

On a positive note, he highlights that frozen ground can make it easier to move vehicles compared to the muddy conditions during autumn and spring.

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Ukrainian Losses

🎦 03:41-03:46⏩

Jonathan reports minimal Ukrainian losses based on information from Andrew Perpetua's social media monitoring. Ukraine reportedly only lost a boat and a BTR (armoured personnel carrier).

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Russian Equipment Losses (analysis from Andrew Perpetua)

🎦 03:46-04:38⏩

Jonathan details visually confirmed Russian equipment losses, citing Andrew Perpetua's work. Key losses:

• RB-1099A electronic warfare system (new, high value)
• Communications equipment.
• Artillery pieces.
• T-90M tank (destroyed by Bradleys - footage to be discussed later)
• T-80 and T-72 tanks.
• Several IFVs (infantry fighting vehicles)
• MTLB armoured personnel carriers
• Numerous trucks and civilian vehicles.

Jonathan emphasises the significance of the T-90M and RB-1099A losses for the Russians.

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Russian Tank Losses (Forbes Analysis)

🎦 04:39-07:07⏩

Jonathan cites a Forbes article, shared by Anton Gerashchenko, estimating that Russia has lost almost 90% of the tanks it committed at the start of the invasion. Key points:

• Russia began with 2,987 tanks.
• Estimated losses: at least 2,619 tanks (confirmed by independent analysts).
  • 1,725 destroyed
  • 145 damaged
  • 205 abandoned
  • 544 captured (T-55, T-62, T-72, T-80, and T-90 models).
• Without replacements, Russia would have only 368 tanks left – insufficient to counter Ukraine's estimated 1,000 operational tanks (including pre-war, restored, and donated tanks, minus losses).

Replacement Efforts:

• Sources: Uralvagonzavod plant (new T-90Ms) and four other enterprises repairing older tanks.
• Production capacities are unknown.
• Kremlin claims 1,500 new and modernised tanks delivered to the army (Forbes analysts question this).
• YouTubers like Covert Cabal analyse imagery of stored Russian tanks to assess their potential for cannibalisation and refurbishment.
• Garrison estimates Russia might be down to 1,180 tanks, potentially slightly more than Ukraine.
• Jonathan notes the desperation of Russia resorting to using museum display tanks and deploying outdated equipment.

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Bradley vs. T-90M Footage Analysis

🎦 07:07-10:17⏩

Jonathan analyses footage, originally shared by Andrew Perpetua, of a Ukrainian Bradley IFV engaging and destroying a Russian T-90M tank.

• He encourages viewers to watch the full, unedited video (linked in the description).
• The footage shows the Bradley using flanking manoeuvres, taking cover, and delivering accurate fire.
• The T-90M appears to miss its first shot, giving the Bradley the advantage.
• The Bradley bombards the T-90M with high-explosive rounds, severely damaging it.
• Despite the damage, the T-90M is able to drive away. However, the turret is left spinning uncontrollably.
• Jonathan and Andrew Perpetua debate whether the tank was destroyed. Jonathan believes it could have been finished off by the Bradley.
• Andrew Perpetua is animated in his analysis, highlighting the T-90M's failure to win a one-on-one engagement despite having the element of surprise and a first shot opportunity.

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Russian RB-109A EW System Destroyed

🎦 10:17-12:42⏩

Jonathan discusses the destruction of a Russian RB-109A Byelina electronic warfare (EW) system, struck by Ukrainian forces near Avdiivka.

• The RB-109A, which entered service in 2018, is a sophisticated EW platform designed to detect and counter enemy radio emissions, including weapons systems.
• Jonathan uses Bing's AI search to find information on the system, highlighting the effectiveness of AI in research.
• The AI confirms the system's purpose and capabilities but could not find information on its cost. However, it saves Jonathan time by confirming the lack of readily available cost data.
• Jonathan speculates that the system is likely very expensive, making its loss a significant blow to the Russians.

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Increase in Fires Across Russia

🎦 12:42-16:22⏩

Jonathan points out a noticeable increase in fires across Russia, citing several examples:

• True Cost restaurant in downtown Moscow: 50 people evacuated.
• Wildberries warehouse complex fire in St. Petersburg: The fire grew to a massive 50,000 square metres. Jonathan expresses surprise at the scale of this fire.
• Building under construction in Moscow (Sberbank) also caught fire.

Speculation about the Fires:

• Jonathan notes that there have been rumours about Ukrainian intelligence paying people to set fires in Russia.
• He mentions a theory that some Russians might be intentionally causing fires to collect insurance money, especially given the economic impact of sanctions.

Anton Gerashchenko's Analysis:

• Gerashchenko highlights the absurdity of the Wildberries company needing to negotiate with emergency services to use a helicopter to extinguish the fire, suggesting a breakdown in the system.
• He also points out that there have been at least 50 large warehouse fires in Russia in the past five to six months, mostly around Moscow and St. Petersburg, with seemingly no consequences.

Jonathan's Take:

• He ponders the cumulative economic impact of these fires, including rebuilding costs and lost productivity.
• He observes that the number, scale, and locations of these fires deviate from historical norms, suggesting an anomaly likely linked to the war.

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Russian Missile Attack and Ukrainian Air Defence

🎦 16:22-18:18⏩

Jonathan analyses the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defence against a recent wave of Russian missile attacks, noting the challenges posed by the variety of missiles deployed:

• Missiles Used:
  • Shahids (Iranian-made drones)
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Kinzhal hypersonic missiles
  • Kh-22 and Kh-32 missiles
  • Kh-59 and 31P missiles (semi-ballistic and anti-ship).
• Ukrainian Air Defence Success Rate:
  • Shot down 7 out of 12 Kh-101 cruise missiles.
  • Struggled to intercept other missile types.
• Ukrainian Claims:
  • Over 20 missiles didn't reach their targets due to electronic warfare countermeasures.
  • Jonathan acknowledges the recurring nature of such claims, remaining somewhat sceptical about their full accuracy.
• Analysis:
  • Despite some successes, a significant number of missiles (at least 18, potentially more) still hit Ukrainian targets.
  • These strikes will undoubtedly impact Ukraine, even if details and footage are not readily available.

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Targets of the Russian Missile Attack

🎦 18:18-19:33⏩

Jonathan reports on the aftermath of the Russian missile attack, highlighting the targets and narratives from both sides. Key Information:

• The Kyiv Independent reports that Russia targeted multiple regions across Ukraine with various weapons, including hypersonic missiles.
• Russia's Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims to have conducted "high-precision strikes," specifically targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complexes involved in producing:
  • 152mm and 125mm artillery ammunition
  • Gunpowder
  • Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)/drones
• Jonathan finds the Russian MoD's claim about hitting Ukrainian military production facilities plausible, especially considering previous strikes on similar targets.
• He argues that focusing on these facilities is a logical strategy for Russia if they anticipate a protracted war. Disrupting Ukraine's indigenous arms production is crucial.
• The Russian MoD claims all designated targets were hit, but no evidence is provided.

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Estonian Intelligence: Russia Targeting Airfields

🎦 19:33-20:31⏩

• Jonathan shares a report from the head of Estonian intelligence: Russia is targeting Ukrainian airfields, possibly in anticipation of the arrival of F-16 fighter jets.
• He notes that Estonian intelligence has been relatively accurate in the past but advises caution in accepting such claims without further confirmation.

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Alleged Deterioration of Russian Missiles

🎦 20:31-21:25⏩

Jonathan discusses claims that Russian missiles are becoming less reliable:

• Ukrainian sources suggest that Russian missiles are increasingly malfunctioning and going off course.
• The Ukrainian Air Force claimed that while they shot down 8 out of 40 missiles, over 20 failed to reach their targets due to Ukrainian electronic warfare.
• Jonathan expresses uncertainty about the validity of these claims without evidence, acknowledging the possibility but remaining cautious.
• He questions whether Russia is using older missiles, if production quality has declined, or if Ukrainian countermeasures are proving highly effective.

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Explosions in Mariupol and Drone Activity

🎦 21:25-22:21⏩

• Jonathan reports explosions in Mariupol, indicating possible Ukrainian strikes.
• Air defence activity is reported around Makiivka and Donetsk, suggesting Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets in the region.
• A drone incident occurred in Volgograd, Russia, around 400 km from the Ukrainian border, crashing into a petrol/gas station.
  • Jonathan finds it unusual for a petrol station to be a target and suggests the drone might have malfunctioned or been affected by electronic warfare.
  • Some locals speculate that it could have been a radio-controlled model plane, but police have cordoned off the area.

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Power Outages in Belgorod and Polish Response

🎦 22:21-23:05⏩

• Four villages in Belgorod, Russia, experienced power outages after reported drone strikes:
  • Affected villages: Glotovo, Bezimeno, Parshily Podol, and Kozinka.
  • A few cars were damaged in Kozinka, but no casualties were reported.
• Poland scrambled jets in response to increased activity by Russian long-range aviation. Polish authorities stated this was a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of their airspace during potential Russian strikes on Ukraine.

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Ukrainian Hackers Target Russian Companies

🎦 23:05-23:50⏩

Jonathan reports on successful cyberattacks by Ukrainian hackers:

• The hackers claim to have leaked 200 gigabytes of private data from 3,000 companies in Russia.
• This follows a pattern of increased Ukrainian cyber activity aimed at disrupting Russian operations.
• The hackers, part of the "IT Army of Ukraine," intend to publish weekly reports on leaked data to:
  • Expose war supporters
  • Gather evidence for potential use in international courts.
• The group encourages individuals with relevant skills to join their efforts.

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Sanctions Impact: Siberian Airlines Request Extension for 50-Year-Old Planes

🎦 23:50-24:34⏩

Jonathan discusses the impact of sanctions on Russian civil aviation:

• Two Siberian airlines requested government permission to extend the operational lifespan of their aging Antonov An-24 and An-26 aircraft (some over 50 years old).
• Reason: Western sanctions have made it impossible to acquire replacement aircraft.
• Sergei Zorin (Angara Airlines general director) and Alexei Evtseev (Polar Airlines acting technical director) emphasise:
  • The An-24 and An-26 remain crucial for passenger and cargo transport in remote regions like Yakutia.
  • Sanctions have severely hampered their ability to obtain spare parts and engine components in recent years, making maintenance difficult.

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Chechen Fighter's Account of Frontline Conditions

🎦 24:34-25:31⏩

• Jonathan shares a video of a Chechen fighter in Ukraine describing dire conditions on the front lines.
• The soldier reports:
  • Starvation among Russian troops
  • Resorting to drinking water from puddles
  • Heavy losses
  • Low morale
  • Fear of exposing themselves due to constant Ukrainian fire.
• Jonathan acknowledges that conditions are undoubtedly difficult for Ukrainian soldiers as well, but their logistical situation is likely better since they are fighting on home ground.

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Public Heating Issues Continue in Russia

🎦 25:31-26:19⏩

Jonathan provides another example of Russia's internal struggles:

• In Chelyabinsk, Russia, a public heating point was set up on a street after a pipeline burst, highlighting the ongoing issues with heating infrastructure.
• Footage shows steam billowing from the broken pipeline, and residents are forced to rely on this makeshift heating solution.
• Jonathan notes the irony of the situation, given that Russia's energy infrastructure was supposed to be a strength.
• The hashtag #RussiaisFreezing is gaining traction as similar incidents are reported across the country.

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Zelenskyy: Russia Must Not Be Allowed to Regroup

26:19-27:44⏩
Jonathan shares Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's warning:

• Zelenskyy stresses that Russia must not be given the opportunity to regroup and rebuild its forces.
• He argues against any "freezing" of the conflict, as this would give Russia time to prepare for a renewed offensive or a "revenge war."
• Jonathan echoes this sentiment, emphasising the need for Ukraine to maintain pressure on Russian forces throughout the winter and spring to prevent them from reconstituting.
• This involves targeting:
  • Russian manufacturing facilities
  • Supply lines (logistics)
  • Other critical infrastructure.
• Jonathan predicts that Ukraine, with continued support from its allies, will ramp up strikes on key Russian targets, including those deep within Russian territory.
• He believes that Ukraine will increasingly rely on domestically produced long-range drones to strike targets inside Russia.
• Jonathan highlights the parallel strategies employed by both sides, targeting each other's weapons manufacturing capabilities and the launch sites used for attacks.

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Wrap up

🎦 27:44-27:49⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He signs off, saying he's going to get a bite to eat before starting on the second video.

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